Troy Melton Underdog MLB Picks Today, 7/23: Baseball Projections + More

What is up, Fantasy Alarm family? We are hunting pitcher K picks and strikeout prop betting value again for Underdog Fantasy, built around season stats, current form, and matchup splits against lefties and righties for Thursday's MLB slate. Two arms stand out above the rest of today's strikeout prop board. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker. Let us break down today's top plays.

Troy Melton MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Melton is 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 55.2 innings, and he's been nearly untouchable at home, with a sub-1.00 ERA across his last four starts at Comerica Park. His last outing was clean, 5.2 innings, one run, four hits against the Angels.

Today he stays home against a Kansas City lineup that just lost star shortstop Bobby Witt to the injured list with a back issue, and his 24% miss rate combined with elite command gives him a real path here regardless. Take it.

Shane Bieber MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Lower than 4.5 Strikeouts

Bieber is still building back up, just 19 strikeouts in 23.2 innings across five starts, and detailed tracking shows he's completed 17 outs in a start only once all season, a clear sign of a short leash. His Statcast numbers back that caution up, a .426 expected wOBA and 53.2% hard-hit rate that rank among the worst in baseball.

Today he gets Tampa Bay, one of the lowest strikeout-rate lineups against right-handers in the league at 19.3%. Lock it in on the under.

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