Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy MLB picks today? Our Underdog MLB Pick'em predictions for Wednesday, July 29th, spotlight two MLB player props worth targeting on today’s action-packed MLB slate. The lines for Shane Drohan’s strikeouts and Yordan Alvarez’s total bases both come with clear situational edges backed by current form, matchup data, and recent trends. If you are building your Underdog Pick'em entry for today’s MLB slate, here is the full case for where we land on both and why the MLB DFS projections set up the way they do.

What are the Best Underdog MLB Pick'em Picks Today?

Today’s two best Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick'em plays are Shane Drohan over 5.5 strikeouts and Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases. Both props are supported by matchup data, current streaks, and favorable line construction heading into an action-packed day of baseball. Read below for the complete analysis on each.

 

 

 

Shane Drohan OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

Drohan has posted a 24.3% strikeout rate over his last six starts, not to mention an 11.6 SwStr%. He throws a first-pitch strike over two-thirds of the time, and that’s key for him, because through an 0-1 count, his strikeout rate sits at 30.9%, but through a 1-0 count, his strikeout rate falls to 20.2%. The Milwaukee southpaw has three pitches with a double-digit swinging strike rate, and I expect him to use all of them to frustrate this San Fran lineup.

The Giants are about league average this month in terms of strikeout rate against lefties (22.6%), and albeit a limited sample, over the last two weeks against lefties, the Giants have a 27.7 K%, .191 wOBA, and 18 wRC+. Furthermore, interestingly enough, when facing a lefty at home, only the Rockies (26.2%) and Angels (26.1%) have a higher strikeout rate than the Giants (25.7%).

He’s recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five, and I like his outlook to make that five of six.

UPDATE: Drohan isn't starting today. Need a pivot? Check out Tommy White over 0.5 hits!

Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Yordan Alvarez may clear this line in his first AB. He has a .343 ISO out of the break, and I feel like anytime he takes on a right-handed pitcher, he’s someone I’m targeting without a doubt. The superstar slugger has a .340 ISO and 1.143 OPS against right-handed pitching on the year, and he leads nearly every stat when it comes to facing righties, including OPS, wOBA, and wRC+, amongst others.

Grayson Rodriguez has an ERA north of 10 at home this year, and he has yet to find a way to neutralize left-handed hitters. Lefties have a .656 SLG and .462 wOBA against Rodriguez this season, and it goes without saying, but Rodriguez has been struggling of late (9.19 ERA, .338 BAA, 1.3 K-BB% over his last 15.2 IP).

 

 

 

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If you have not yet signed up for Underdog Fantasy, there is no better time than tonight. New users who register using promo code ALARM will receive a free pick plus $50 instantly, giving you real money to work with on this slate and every MLB game going forward. Visit fantasyalarm.com/offers to lock in your bonus before the evening games get underway.