Kyle Bradish Underdog MLB Picks Today, 7/27: Baseball Projections + More

What is up, Fantasy Alarm family? We are hunting pitcher K picks and strikeout prop betting value again for Underdog Fantasy, built around season stats, current form, and matchup splits against lefties and righties for Monday’s MLB slate. Two arms stand out above the rest of today’s strikeout prop board. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker. Let us break down today’s top plays.

Kyle Bradish MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Bradish is 7-9 with a 3.49 ERA, 110 strikeouts in 113.1 innings, and an 8.7 K/9, a dependable arm who has quietly been one of the more trusted starters in Baltimore’s rotation all season. Per THE BAT projection system, his overall pitching skill grades in the 92nd percentile among all major league starters, and the Orioles have consistently given him a longer pitch count than the average starter, an extra 3.4 adjusted pitches per outing above league norms, meaning more batters faced and more chances to add to his strikeout total. His last start backed that trust up: six innings, one earned run, four hits against Boston.

Tonight he opens a series at Detroit, and the Tigers strike out against right-handers at a strong 23.9% clip this season. A trusted arm who reliably works deep into games, paired with a strikeout-prone lineup, is a clean number to build around. Take it.

Payton Tolle MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Tolle is 5-6 with a 3.31 ERA, 96 strikeouts in 89.2 innings, and a 9.6 K/9, one of the more electric young arms in Boston’s rotation and part of a Red Sox club that has been the hottest team in baseball, 25-7 and an MLB best since June 19 after closing out a 10-game homestand at 8-2. He’s cleared this exact strikeout total in three straight starts, and even in a shakier final line his last time out, 5.2 innings and four runs allowed against Baltimore, the swing-and-miss stuff was still evident throughout.

Tonight he travels to Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento to face the Athletics, a team that has completely fallen apart, dropping 23 of its last 29 games. The Athletics strike out against lefties at a 24.2% clip this season, a favorable number that lines up well with Tolle’s bat-missing profile. Lock it in.

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