The midsummer stretch is officially here, and navigating the fantasy baseball trade market requires sharp execution. To dominate your leagues, keeping a close eye on multi-week rolling trends and underlying Statcast metrics is paramount.

Welcome to this week's fantasy baseball stock watch, where we dive into the data to highlight the top fantasy baseball risers and fallers over the last seven days, analyze high-value trade opportunities, look for potential streamers from your fantasy baseball waiver wire and map out the schedules you need to watch heading into next week.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Risers This Week

Luis Garcia Jr. (1B/2B, Washington Nationals)

Garcia is putting together a phenomenal breakout campaign, fully actualizing the potential he teased in previous years. Over his last five games, he put on an absolute clinic, batting .476 with three home runs and 10 RBI. Statcast heavily backs up this surge; Garcia has seen a marked increase in his barrel rate and hard-hit percentage over the past seven days. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) has skyrocketed, validating that his premium power output is no fluke and making him an essential standard-league middle infield corner block.

Javier Sanoja (2B/3B/OF, Miami Marlins)

Sanoja's elite defensive glove is guaranteeing him ample time at shortstop, providing him a secure floor of everyday playing time. However, it is his sudden offensive awakening that has fantasy managers racing to the waiver wire. Over his last six games, Sanoja clubbed a home run, drove in nine runs, and swiped two bags. He possesses an incredibly low strikeout rate, and by flashing enhanced pull-side power this past week, he is rapidly transforming into a fixture at the top of Miami’s lineup.

Chase DeLauter (OF, Cleveland Guardians)

After missed time due to a rib fracture, DeLauter has looked entirely unbothered since coming off the injured list. He has hit safely in each of his first five games back, flashing the elite bat speed and zone discipline that made him a consensus top prospect. His underlying metrics reveal zero rust; he is consistently generating high exit velocities and finding the barrel. The injury discount is officially gone, and DeLauter is primed to take off as an impact outfielder for the rest of the summer.

Owen Caissie (OF, Miami Marlins)

Caissie remains a heavy platoon option in Miami’s outfield, but his recent production is forcing managers to find him extra plate appearances. He has recorded a hit in eight of his last 10 games, and his raw power is beginning to shine through via a massive spike in hard-hit rate. While the swing-and-miss profile keeps his batting average volatile, his elite max exit velocities over the past seven days indicate that when he connects, it results in top-tier fantasy damage. He is a premier target in five-outfielder formats.

Foster Griffin (SP, Washington Nationals)

Griffin is pitching backward to standard expectations, relying on impeccable location and a revamped pitch mix to string together four consecutive quality starts. Over his last two outings, he showcased a noticeable uptick in strikeout rate driven by a spike in his Whiff% on his secondary offerings. His low walk rate ensures a stable WHIP, rendering him an excellent streaming option who is quickly earning permanent roster status.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Fallers This Week

Vladimir Guerrero (1B, Toronto Blue Jays)

Frustration has reached an all-time high for Guerrero's fantasy managers. Over the past week, he managed just two runs and two RBI while sputtering to a meager .190 batting average. A deep dive into his rolling stat metrics shows a worrying trend: his launch angle has cratered over the last seven days, leading to an abundance of weak ground balls. While the hard-hit data remains respectable, his inability to lift the ball is severely sapping his counting stats.

Matt Chapman (3B, San Francisco Giants)

Chapman’s stock took a devastating dual hit this week. On the field, he endured a miserable stretch, batting a frigid .111 accompanied by an alarming 36.8% strikeout rate over the last seven days. To make matters worse, his mechanical struggles were explained when he officially landed on the injured list. With his underlying contact metrics in freefall and an extended absence on the horizon, he is an easy drop in shallower leagues.

Austin Riley (3B, Atlanta Braves)

It is time to face the harsh reality: Austin Riley's prolonged slump has evolved from a standard cold streak into a complete value collapse. His plate discipline has eroded, his barrel rates have reached career lows, and his expected statistics show no signs of an impending turnaround. The power stroke that made him an elite corner infielder has completely vanished, and holding out hope for a dramatic second-half return to form is no longer a viable strategy.

Cody Bellinger (OF, New York Yankees)

The Yankees' lineup drop-off has drastically impacted Bellinger, but his individual performance has been flat-out unacceptable. Going hitless across his last 21 plate appearances is an atrocious stretch for a player of his caliber. His rolling Statcast page is a sea of blue, highlighting a massive drop in sweet-spot percentage and exit velocity. Until New York's offense finds its rhythm, Bellinger is an incredibly risky start.

Freddy Peralta (SP, New York Mets)

Peralta has officially hit the doldrums. He has increasingly morphed into a predictable two-pitch pitcher, and without pinpoint command, opposing hitters are routinely laying off his chase pitches and punishing his mistakes in the zone. His FIP and xERA have ballooned over his last few turns through the rotation. Without a reliable third offering or a sudden leap in control, he cannot be trusted against high-tier offenses.

 

 

Best Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidates

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, Kansas City Royals)

  • The Situation: Pasquantino's market value plummeted after he suffered a fractured hamate bone in his hand.
  • The Opportunity: He is already scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment next week, targeting an official major-league return immediately following the All-Star break. While hamate bone injuries can occasionally sap raw power initially, his elite plate discipline and zone contact metrics will ensure he maintains a high on-base percentage. Target his frustrated manager now before he returns to full health for a massive second-half performance.

Kevin Gausman (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)

  • The Situation: Gausman has been thoroughly punished recently, laboring through a brutal 6.58 ERA over his last five starts.
  • The Opportunity: You do not need to insult his current manager with a total lowball offer, but you certainly shouldn't pay full retail price. Point out his recent ugly game logs and emphasize how the opposing offenses in his division are only projected to get tougher near the trade deadline. Under the hood, Gausman’s splitter still flashes elite horizontal break, and his underlying xFIP suggests significant positive regression is coming.

Fantasy Baseball Sell High Candidates

Dansby Swanson (SS, Chicago Cubs)

  • The Approach: Always look to maximize your return immediately following a multi-homer outburst, and Swanson's recent three-home-run explosion provides the perfect window.
  • The Reality: Swanson is a streaky hitter whose baseline metrics have firmly stabilized. You can expect roughly 10 home runs over the remainder of the season, but his high strikeout rate will capsulate his batting average. If a manager in your league is desperate for shortstop stability and willing to pay a premium based on his recent hot week, flip him to fill a glaring rotation need.

Trevor Rogers (SP, Baltimore Orioles)

  • The Approach: Rogers has looked spectacular on the surface, compiling a glittering 2.05 ERA across his last five starts.
  • The Reality: A quick glance at his underlying metrics exposes a looming regression monster. He paired that 2.05 ERA with a 2.62 FIP, but his strikeout rate has completely evaporated over this stretch. He is relying entirely on elite sequencing and defensive luck to strand runners. His current market value will never be higher than it is right now; sell him immediately to a pitching-starved manager before his luck completely runs out.

Fantasy Baseball Players to Watch Next Week

  • Cincinnati Reds Hitters: The Reds benefit from an incredibly lucrative schedule to close out the first half, playing entirely at home inside the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. They host consecutive series against the Cubs and Phillies, making all fringe Cincinnati bats mandatory starts.
  • Chicago Cubs Hitters: The Cubs draw a polarizing split schedule next week. They open on the road against a formidable Baltimore pitching staff before traveling to Cincinnati for a three-game set. Expect a quiet start to the week followed by an offensive explosion over the weekend.
  • Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies kick off the week with an explosive three-game series in Cincinnati before flying to Detroit to close out the first half of the season. Maximize your lineup real estate by plugging in your Phillies bats to exploit the Great American Ball Park factor early in the week.
  • Stolen Base Surge: If you are chasing speed in category leagues, keep a close eye on the Miami Marlins, Seattle Mariners, and Cleveland Guardians next week. All three clubs face pitching staffs that rank among the worst in the majors at containing the running game, making their speed assets priority plays.