The MLB All-Star break is in the rearview mirror, rosters are shuffling, and front offices are working the phones, and we are officially hitting the gas pedal for the fantasy baseball second-half sprint. That means it is time to dig deep into the metrics and separate the real deal from the fool's gold. If you want to conquer your leagues, you need to stay ahead of the narrative and dive into this week's data-driven breakdown to see who is forcing your hand on the trade block and the waiver wire. Welcome to this week's fantasy baseball stock watch, where we look for potential streamers from your fantasy baseball waiver wire and map out the schedules you need to watch heading into next week.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Risers This Week

Ryan Jeffers, C Minnesota Twins

It is not so much about his raw numbers—which, from a fantasy catcher standpoint, have been incredibly solid—but more about his name being one of the most prominent in trade rumors. Beat writers are heavily connecting him to the New York Yankees as a premium right-handed target. Landing a gig with a true contender would instantly boost his fantasy value. If you look under the hood, his underlying Statcast metrics support a heavy second-half surge. Jeffers boasts an elite 13.8-percent barrel rate and a 46.5-percent hard-hit rate, proving that the raw power is completely legit. If he gets moved to a lineup with better run-scoring environments, his RBI floor is going to skyrocket. He is a fantastic target before the deadline hits.

Curtis Mead, 2B/3B Washington Nationals

He seems to be the ultimate post-hype sleeper this season. Mead has done nothing but thrive since carving out an everyday role for the Washington Nationals. His power numbers put him directly into the upper echelon of fantasy third basemen. The underlying metrics show exactly why: a sparkling 44.1-percent hard-hit rate paired with a much-improved 12.4-degree launch angle. He has stopped pounding the ball into the dirt and is finally tapping into his natural raw pop. If he is sitting on your fantasy baseball waiver wire, he should be considered an absolute must-add right now.

Luis Robert, OF New York Mets

The dynamic outfielder is currently on a rehab assignment and should be back in the Mets lineup as early as this weekend. Robert is a premier power-and-speed threat when he is healthy. It appears he will immediately return to center field, while the Mets look to transition Juan Soto into a full-time DH and part-time outfielder role. Don't forget that Robert sports an elite 92.1 mph average exit velocity and a maximum exit velocity that ranks in the top 5% of the league. The injury discount is officially over—get him back into your active lineups immediately.

Jared Jones, SP Pittsburgh Pirates

Jones' last start featured exactly the type of dominant pitcher we expected him to be coming out of college. With his elbow injuries completely behind him, he tossed six perfect innings against a tough, disciplined Atlanta Braves lineup, punching out eight batters on just 77 pitches. His progress should be incredibly encouraging to fantasy managers. Statcast tells an even scarier story for opposing hitters: his four-seam fastball is averaging a blistering 97.4 mph with an elite 26.8% whiff rate on his slider. We fully expect to see him atop pitching leaderboards here in the second half.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Fallers This Week

Dansby Swanson, SS Chicago Cubs

We told you two weeks ago to sell high on Swanson, and look at him now! Remember when he hit three home runs in a single game and everyone was freaking out? Well, over the last two weeks, he has hit just .212 with absolutely zero power and a horrendous 27.3% strikeout rate. His rolling expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) has cratered to .264 over his last 50 plate appearances. The bat is incredibly slow through the zone right now, and his zone-contact metrics are dipping. When your league-mates try selling him to you at the trade deadline, be very wary of what he is doing.

Brandon Marsh, OF Philadelphia Phillies

Marsh is hitting a measly .143 with no power and just two runs scored over his last 10 games. While his overall power numbers will likely finish at career-highs for the season, that will only be because of his overachieving first-half production. His underlying metrics are flashing bright red lights. He is carrying a brutal 34.2% strikeout rate alongside a massive 42.1% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone. The league has adjusted to his high-fastball vulnerability, and this rising strikeout rate is going to take a heavy toll on his second-half production.

Henry Bolte, OF Athletics

How much longer do the Athletics give him before they look to audition another youngster who may be ready for a challenge? Bolte is supposed to be a high-end speed asset—a true table-setter for this offense. Instead, he has not stolen a single base since June 29 and is posting a horrendous .156 on-base percentage (OBP) over the last two weeks. That empty production is largely thanks to a glaring 28.1% strikeout rate over that span. His contact rate on pitches inside the zone has plummeted to 68%, making him a massive liability in all formats.

Bubba Chandler, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

In the shadow of young frontline starters like Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, and Jared Jones, the bloom is rapidly coming off the Chandler rose. The command is just not there right now, and it is showing up in the box scores. Over his last three starts, he has posted a bloated 6.23 ERA—which also happens to be his exact K/9 strikeout rate over that span. If you hadn't guessed yet, that number is terribly low for a guy who relies on missing bats. His walk rate has ticked up to 4.5 BB/9, and without a reliable secondary pitch to bail him out, he is an easy fade.

 

 

Best Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidates

Oneil Cruz, OF Pittsburgh Pirates

He won't come off the injured list until after the first week of August, which gives you a perfect window to strike. Cruz offers a league-winning power/speed combination when he returns, especially with how aggressive the Pirates have been on the basepaths. His maximum exit velocity sits at a ridiculous 118.4 mph (elite tier), and his sprint speed is in the 98th percentile. Should his current manager be in desperate need of immediate pitching or supplemental active offense to survive July, make an offer now.

Hunter Brown, SP Houston Astros

Brown carries massive rest-of-season profit potential relative to his rocky early-season statistical profile, which was heavily skewed by an early-season injury. His underlying expected stats hint at an elite second-half surge. He features a 3.32 expected ERA (xERA) that sits more than a full run lower than his actual surface ERA. His 28.4% strikeout rate remains elite, and his groundball rate is hovering near 52-percent. He is an incredibly affordable target for pitching-needy rosters before his surface stats catch up to his talent.

Fantasy Baseball Sell High Candidates

Otto Lopez, SS Miami Marlins

Lopez has enjoyed a massive midsummer hot streak, but his current trade value far exceeds his expected rest-of-season output. His recent multi-categorical spikes are being driven by a completely unsustainable .412 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). His hard-hit rate is a meager 24.5-percent, and his average exit velocity is among the lowest in the league at 84.8 mph. Cash in on him immediately before his bat cools down to his historical career baselines.

Eduardo Rodriguez, SP Arizona Diamondbacks

Rodriguez is highlighted by underlying metrics as one of the single biggest regression risks in baseball right now. Despite some decent surface wins, his xERA is sitting at a dangerous 4.88, fueled by a declining 18.2-percent strikeout rate and a career-high 10.4-percent barrel rate allowed. His current trade market value is likely the absolute highest it will get all season long. Move him immediately to a manager looking for veteran pitching depth before his ratios completely crater.

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Players to Watch Next Week

  • Colorado Rockies Hitters: They open the week with a juicy three-game homestand against the Washington Nationals before traveling to Milwaukee. The Brewers' starting staff is currently decimated by injuries, and American Family Field is well-known for being hitter-friendly—largely because its batter's eye is widely considered one of the absolute best for hitters to track pitches.
  • Washington Nationals Hitters: Opening up the week with a three-game set at Coors Field should get these bats off to a roaring start. Target their mid-tier options for streaming volume.
  • Chicago Cubs/Detroit Tigers: Keep a very close eye on the weather forecasts early in the week. See how the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field before lock to maximize your daily streaming hitters or avoid volatile pitchers.
  • Stolen Base Surge: The Athletics face Victor Caratini and the Minnesota Twins' vulnerable running defense to start the week, while the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays square off for a three-game set later on. Expect an aggressive strategy on the basepaths and a very strong surge in total steals.