The 2022 MLB Trade Deadline is right around the corner and one player getting a ton of buzz is Frankie Montas. The Oakland Athletics’ starting pitcher is populating many MLB trade rumors since returning to the mound after the 2022 MLB All-Star break. Montas had been sidelined for most of July with shoulder inflammation, but he looked pretty healthy on Thursday with a solid outing against the Tigers. Surely, the A’s are fielding plenty of calls for the hard-throwing right-hander and he could easily be on a new team by the August 2nd trade deadline. How could a Montas trade affect his spot in fantasy baseball rankings or rest-of-season MLB projections? Can we trust him to stay off the MLB injury report and in our fantasy baseball lineups moving forward? Let’s break it down in the latest edition of the Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight series. As the MLB Trade Deadline approaches, keep an eye on the latest fantasy baseball news for roster movement and MLB top prospects possibly changing teams. Any MLB trades could also impact our fantasy baseball waiver wire targets as well.

 

 

Frankie Montas Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight

 

 

After being out since July 3rd with his shoulder issue, Montas finally returned to the Oakland rotation and fantasy baseball lineups this past Thursday. He threw just 53 pitches over three innings in his first start back, but he was effective in the limited work. Montas struck out five with one walk and two hits allowed while holding the Tigers scoreless in those three frames. 

Yes, it came against a lowly Detroit lineup, but it’s still encouraging to see Montas back healthy and posting good results. Plus, his stuff was very much on point. Not only was he consistently hitting 96-98 mph on the gun with the fastball and sinker, but the righty’s splitter was also looking plenty filthy.

The 29-year-old now boasts a 3.16 ERA, 3.22 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP through 18 starts with a stellar 105:25 K:BB ratio over 99.2 innings pitched this season. Ignore the ugly 3-9 record, though, because we all know the A’s offense isn’t providing the necessary run support. Instead, look at his 10 quality starts in his first 16 outings of the year before the shoulder injury popped up. 

In terms of some advanced stats, Montas has a 26.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, .223 batting average against, 3.46 xERA, and 3.30 SIERA. Many of his current numbers are actually career-bests, or close to it, since he became a full-time starter in 2018. Keep in mind that the 2019 season should have an asterisk on it due to testing positive for a banned substance and subsequently being suspended for 80 games halfway through the year. 

SeasonERAFIPWHIPBAAK%BB%K/BB
20223.163.231.08.22326.3%6.3%4.20
20213.373.371.18.23026.6%7.3%3.63
20205.604.741.51.26825.3%9.7%2.61
2019*2.633.001.11.22926.1%5.8%4.48
20183.883.901.46.28515.2%7.4%2.05

Since Montas is in the midst of arguably the best season of his career, it’s no surprise that MLB contenders across the league are interested in his services. At least Oakland is clearly in sell mode after dealing away Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Sean Manaea, and Chris Bassitt this past offseason and now among the bottom-dwellers of the league. Montas is likely the next guy shipped out. He has one more year of team control and is slated to be a free agent after 2023. That’s not bad for a team looking to bolster its rotation for both this season and next. 

So what’s clicking for Montas this year? If you’re familiar at all with the righty, you know about his splitter being one of the best in the game over recent seasons. That’s again the case in 2022. His splitter, making up 25.7% of his repertoire, has allowed just a .171 batting average and .226 wOBA against while boasting a 32.5% whiff rate and 34.4% strikeout rate. Montas also boasts a second plus breaking ball in the slider, which he throws 15.4% of the time with a .194 BA and .271 wOBA against. His slider also has a 39.4% whiff rate and 27.8% K rate while playing well off the opposite movement of the splitter. 

Of course, a big factor in Montas’ trade value is whether MLB teams are willing to take on the injury risk. The righty just returned from a nearly three-week absence due to shoulder stiffness and the issue could easily re-emerge in the final months of this season. The fact that Montas was never placed on Oakland’s Injured List is a good sign, as is his performance on Thursday in his first outing back. Still, that shoulder could tighten up again in the near future and force more missed starts. 

Then there’s the 80-game suspension that Montas served in 2019 after testing positive for a banned substance. Yes, he’s avoided any further punishments or positive tests since. Still, MLB teams have to be wary of trading for any player with that past transgression – at least more so than if they were acquiring someone who’s been clean his whole career. It seems like the banned substance and suspension are now fully behind him three years later, but we’d be ignorant to totally disregard it when it comes to Montas and his possible trade ramifications. 

So if Montas does get dealt at the trade deadline, what does it mean for his rest-of-season fantasy baseball value? First of all, you can bank on more wins if he does land on a better real-life MLB squad. That’s a big deal if your league uses wins as a category in rotisserie or head-to-head formats. The Athletics offense is averaging the league’s second-fewest runs per game, trailing only Detroit. 

Compare that to some of the possible landing spots for Montas if he heads to a contender hoping to strengthen its rotation. The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, and St. Louis Cardinals are all among the MLB's top scoring offenses and clearly provide more run support for their starting pitchers. Plus, most those clubs would also have a better bullpen to close out wins behind Montas than the shaky Oakland relief corps.

Check out how the aforementioned possible landing spots for Montas compare to Oakland's current 3.3 runs per game and 4.21 bullpen ERA. The Yankees would clearly be the best situation for him to rack up more wins. Stats are current as of Saturday (7/23).

TeamRuns/GmBullpen ERA
Yankees5.42.96
Dodgers5.23.35
Mets4.73.46
Phillies4.73.87
Cardinals4.63.53
Red Sox4.64.28
Giants4.84.23

While the increase in win opportunities is nice, not every fantasy baseball league uses the stat. So what else can we expect from Montas on a new team? If he heads to a different AL squad, here are some of his career numbers against notable opponents. He has a 1.83 ERA vs. the Red Sox (19.2 innings), a 1.29 ERA vs. the Yankees (14 IP), a 3.39 ERA vs. the Astros (71.2 IP), a 1.87 ERA vs. the Rays (33.2 IP), a 6.00 ERA vs. the Twins (18 IP), a 2.72 ERA vs. the Mariners (56.1 IP), and a 3.97 ERA vs. the Guardians (45.1 IP). Fantasy managers can be confident in Montas performing well overall in the AL East, however the AL Central may give him more trouble.

On the flip side, if Montas moves to a National League squad, you actually may want to be cautious of some negative regression. While spending his entire career to this point in the American League, Montas has a 6.62 ERA in inter-league play spanning 16 outings (13 starts) and 66.2 innings. That's a little worrisome if we see him land with the Giants, Phillies, Dodgers, Mets, Cardinals or another NL team. 

Meanwhile, Montas' monthly splits show some optimism for him ending this season strong – no matter which team he's on. He boasts a career 3.28 ERA and .229 BAA across the months of September and October. Though he's struggled in the month August during his career with a 4.45 ERA, it's a good sign that he picks it back up with the regular season winding down. That's promising for potential trade suitors and our fantasy baseball lineups alike in the homestretch of the year. 

 

 

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