MLB DFS Playbook May 5: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: May 05, 2023
Hello and welcome to the MLB DFS Playbook for May 5! We have an 11-game slate on our hands today, so a fairly big slate. We have a 7:05 pm ET start time, so plenty of time to read over the playbook today! Make sure to check out our awesome MLB DFS tools as they are always worth going through before building your lineups. However, as I am sure you have figured out by now, the new playbook will be a one-stop shop that includes everything from easy-to-read player write-ups and suggestions to MLB Weather Reports to lineup construction tips to our best value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel. You will be given core plays around which to build your lineups, DFS stacks to consider for GPP tournaments and key statistics to help you in your DFS research. Let’s dive in!
MLB DFS Playbook May 5
MLB Weather Updates
Oakland A’s vs. Kansas City Royals (possible rain, but should play)
Games that appear to have a decent wind blowing out:
None.
Games that appear to have a decent wind blowing in:
None.
DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
This slate is a wild one with so many routes we can go. It has 11 games with about 10-15 pitchers in play, but also has some strong stacking options still. The downside of that, is trying to limit our options down and not have to make a million different lineups (though I will most certainly be making a few tonight myself).
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
Best Odds for a Win
Kodai Senga (New York Mets -239)
Jordan Montgomery (St. Louis Cardinals -231)
Max Fried (Atlanta Braves -206)
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Of all the playbooks I’ve done this year, this slate easily has the most loaded pitchers slate I’ve seen. There are many routes you can go today in the top-tier and mid-tier. Let’s look at some of my favorites for today:
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
Wheeler started the year a little slow, but he has been great over his last two outings, posting 29.3 and 28.5 dk points. He has struck out at least 5 batters in every outing this season and has struck out 18 over his last 12 innings. Boston’s offense has been great this year, making this a very tough matchup for Wheeler, but I also think that means we could get him at lower rostership. I wouldn’t use him in cash games today though.
Senga hasn’t been that good this year and yet he’s still been pretty solid for DFS with a 17.2 ppg average on DK. That is because of his elite strikeout rates (32 Ks in 26 innings) and already picking up three wins. Both of those things are in play today. The Rockies average 3.31 runs per game on the road this season, which ranks 29th in the league and the Mets are the biggest favorites on the slate today with a -239 moneyline.
Jordan Montgomery, St. Louis Cardinals
Monty has been very good this season outside of his one clunker against the Dbacks on 4/18. He has three games with at least 21 dk points in his last five and his season ERA sits at 3.34. The Tigers average 2.67 runs per game on the road this season, which ranks dead last. They also have the fourth highest strikeout rate in the league this year, so it doesn’t get much better than this spot for a pitcher. The Cardinals are also the second biggest favorites on the slate.
Sale has had two sides this season. The dominant one that has scored 19.1, 29.3, and 23.9 dk points in three of his starts and the awful side that has scored -1.3, 5.6, and -4.8 dk points in his other three. Which version we get remains to be seen, but the upside is there. The Phillies have had a below mid-tier offense thus far, ranking 18th in runs per game and have the 10th highest strikeout rate. He is a strong GPP option.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
4.95 – Kansas City Royals vs. Kyle Muller
4.78 – New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
4.75 – Atlanta Braves vs. Dean Kremer
4.74 – Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Josiah Gray
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
MJ Melendez, C/OF, Kansas City Royals
Melendez is coming off a game in which he had three hits with two doubles and over his last four games he is 6-15 with a home run, three doubles, two RBI, and two runs scored. This being a lefty-lefty matchup may scare some people away, but Melendez has massive reverse splits this season, The Royals have the highest implied run total on the slate and Melendez is a great choice for any Royals stack today.
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
This just feels like a day in which we see an Alonso home run. I liked Eduardo Rodriguez to shutdown the Mets offense yesterday (and he did), but this Mets lineup isn’t going to stay down forever. Vegas has the Mets as the second best offense on today’s slate (via implied runs) and Alonso is usually at the center of big New York Met days. Antonio Senzatela is making his season debut for the Rockies and he’s been bad his whole career and struggled mightily in his two rehab starts (seven runs and 13 hits across 6.1 innings).
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
Jung is coming off a game in which he homered twice and he now has three home runs and eight EBI over his last three games. He has 8 home runs on the season with 24 RBI and a crisp .275 average. The rookie third baseman has been incredibly impressive to this point. He faces Tyler Anderson, who has really struggled this season with a 5.74 ERA and 1.58 WHIP while giving up six home runs across 26.2 innings of work.
Michael Harris II, OF, Atlanta Braves
Harris shoud be back in the Braves lineup tonight and I love him at this price. He is 4-12 (.333) with a home run, double, and three runs scored over his last three starts. He provides power/speed upside and the Braves are in a good spot today against Dean Kremer (they have the third highest implied run total on the board). Kremer is not a good pitcher and he has been very bad this season with a 6.67 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.
Esteury Ruiz, OF, Oakland A’s
We knew Ruiz could run, and he’s been great at that with 13 steals already, but he’s quietly been strong across the board outside of home runs (zero). He is hitting .265 with seven doubles, 13 runs, and 14 RBI. He is averaging 10.7 dk points per game over his last 10 games and has 8 steals in that span. Brad Keller is not a good pitcher and his 1.58 WHIP is a good sign for Ruiz to get on and run today out of the leadoff spot.
Player Pool
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Stacks
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