Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MLB DFS Playbook for Wednesday, May 21st! 

We have a 7-game main slate in store for us this evening on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 6:45 PM ET. Today, we have plenty of talent on the diamond and many different ways to build your lineup. Our expert analysis is here to guide you through the top pitchers, value plays, and stackable offenses to target.

Whether chasing big GPP prizes or grinding cash games, we’ve got you covered with insights tailored to today’s matchups. Let’s jump right into the key plays and strategies to dominate the slate!

 

 

This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.

The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.

The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.

The stacks section will bring you are favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.

Check out the MLB DFS Show to get an initial outlook on the day's MLB DFS slate to give you a good base for the start of your research each day! 

Tune into the MLB DFS Livestream at 5 PM ET to watch us break down today’s slate, give you last-minute advice, and answer any questions before locking in those lineups!

Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.

 

MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook

MLB Weather: Wednesday, 5/21

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals

They are almost certainly going to deal with rain and it likely stops the game at some point. Lengthy delay and/or PPD are both on the table. 

UPDATE: Braves-Nationals has been POSTPONED. 

New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox

Some light rain is possible, but they should be able to play this one uninterrupted. 

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees

There is a strong chance of rain that increases as the evening progresses. A better chance than Washington that the rain stays light enough to play through, but there is delay/PPD risk here as well. 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Let's get into today's core pitching plays for our DFS lineups

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Crochet is the top pitcher on the slate both in terms of price and raw upside. He owns a sparkling 2.00 ERA and 29.1 percent strikeout rate through 10 starts this season. The matchup is far from ideal, but the two other pitchers I would put in the same tier as Crochet for upside – deGrom and Smith-Shawver – both come with significant weather risk. The Mets have been a top-10 offense and have struck out at just a 20.2 percent clip against southpaws. Crochet can dominate any matchup, and he is clearly the top overall option. 

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Keep an eye on the weather here. Any late start would significantly increase PPD risk and take deGrom off the table completely. Before factoring in the weather, deGrom gets a high-risk matchup against a powerful lineup in Yankee Stadium. The Bronx Bombers are prone to strikeout despite being the best offense in baseball this season, so I would have significant in the upside of deGrom if the weather looks good enough. The Rangers ace has been in great form recently, and his 14.7 percent swinging-strike rate suggests he has been a little unlucky in the raw strikeout department. 

AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves

UPDATE: Braves-Nationals has been POSTPONED. 

Smith-Shawver would slot in right behind Crochet and deGrom for upside if weather weren't a factor. He is projected to face seven lefties and he owns a 30.2 percent strikeout rate against lefty swingers since last season. Unfortunately, it looks like the rain is going to interrupt him at some point, if they are even able to get started at all. 

Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks

Burnes is in a tough spot against the elite Dodgers offense. He has also has not carried elite strikeout upside for a couple seasons now and his strikeout rate sits at just 22.6 percent this season. There is an argument to be made Burnes is overpriced for the matchup, but he remains in the player pool with weather risk likely taking two of the other top options off the table. He was very good against the Dodgers earlier this month, recording five strikeouts over seven shutout innings. 

Tylor Megill, New York Mets

When we factor in weather and matchup concerns for the more expensive options, Megill lands second on my list behind Crochet in terms of point-per-dollar pitching options on this slate. His 29 percent strikeout rate is among the best on the slate, but it also comes with a hefty 11.4 percent walk rate. The below average command often prevents Megill from working deep into games and therefore limits his upside. His 10.6 percent swinging-strike rate also suggests he hasn't quite earned the lofty 29 percent strikeout rate. For context, Megill posted a 27 percent strikeout rate last season backed by a 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate. On a positive note, the Red Sox have struck out at the 6th-highest rate against righties this season.  

Best of the Rest 

With weather potentially taking some of the preferred options out of play this evening, we might have to dig deeper than is comfortable to round out the pitching pool. Kevin Gausman gets a difficult matchup against the Padres, who have struck out at the 2nd-lowest rate in the league against right-handed pitching. JP Sears owns a well below average 18.8 percent strikeout rate and pitches in a hitter-friendly park. At least he gets a plus matchup against the Angels, who have struck out at the 2nd-highest rate against lefties and have managed just a 59 wRC+ and .254 wOBA. Dustin May has a below average 21.6 percent strikeout rate and faces a Diamondbacks offense that has mashed RH pitching this season. None of these options are ideal, but I would lean into the matchup for Sears if forced to expand the pool. 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Let's check out today's core plays to build our lineups around.

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Philadelphia Phillies in Coors Field

The Phillies have scored 16 runs in the first two games of their series in Denver and they boast an implied team total north of 6.5 runs tonight. They rank 4th in wRC+ and wOBA versus LHP this season. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos all own an ISO of at least .214 against lefties since last season, and Schwarber has been otherworldly against them this season. Trea Turner owns a healthy .378 wOBA against lefties since last season and adds stolen base upside. Rockies LH starter Carson Palmquist has made just one big league start, and it did not go well. He allowed five runs on six hits in four innings of work against the D-backs in his MLB debut. The Rockies bullpen behind him has lowest strikeout rate in baseball, and while their 4.54 ERA isn't awful their 4.31 SIERA is the 2nd-worst in the league.   

Athletics in Sutter Health Park

The A's offense has cooled off a bit since their blistering start to the season, but they are still above average. Angels righty Jack Kochanowicz is an extremely low strikeout, groundball pitcher. He has really struggled with lefties, allowing a .204 ISO and 11.4 percent barrel rate this season. I want lefties like Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler first against Kochanowicz, but the Angels bullpen has been the worst in baseball with a 6.82 ERA and 1.78 HR/9. The full stack is squarely in play thanks to the late inning upside. 

Toronto Blue Jays (especially lefties) vs. Randy Vasquez

Randy Vasquez has somehow managed a 3.45 ERA despite a paltry 11.7 percent strikeout rate and 13.3 percent walk rate. When facing left-handed batters, the strikeout rate falls to just 7.1 percent and Vasquez has allowed an obscene 15.6 percent barrel rate to them. Lefties Daulton Varsho and Anthony Santander are top priorities, and Addison Barger has been quite good in a limited sample this season. The below average control and strikeouts of Vasquez makes the Jays fully stackable.  

Zach Neto and Cheap Angels Power

Angels shortstop Zach Neto is having an incredible season and his lefty mashing ways date back to last season, as he has posted a .233 ISO against southpaws in that time. The rest of the Angels lineup is very cheap, making this an extremely affordable stack. Taylor Ward and Logan O'Hoppe have been the Halos next most successful hitters against lefties this season, while Jorge Soler has a long track record of being elite against lefties despite his struggles this season. A's LH starter JP Sears features below average strikeouts and a lot of flyballs. 

Colorado Rockies vs. Taijuan Walker in Coors Field

The Rockies are no doubt an awful team, but they remain relevant for DFS thanks to their home park. Today, they get a matchup against Taijuan Walker of the Phillies, who has been extremely lucky to post a 2.62 ERA so far this season. Walker has an unsustainably low .270 BABPIP and 5.4 percent HR/FB rate. Below average strikeout and walk rates could also get him into trouble. Jordan Beck, Ryan McMahon and Hunter Goodman have been the Rockies best hitters against righties this season. Ezequiel Tovar has also been solid, and he is very cheap and in a premium lineup spot. 

Late Night Hammer

The final game of the evening features two of the best offenses in baseball in the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Both offenses rank top 3 in the league in wRC+, ISO and wOBA. There are two capable starting pitchers facing off, so it keeps these teams down the list. But elite hitters like Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte should absolutely remain in the player pool, and their immense upside should not be overlooked if making multiple lineups. 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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