Looking for the best MLB DFS picks and lineup strategy for today’s DraftKings and FanDuel slate? The Fantasy Alarm team breaks down every game on the board, identifying the top pitching targets, elite hitter stacks, and high-upside contrarian plays to target in both cash games and GPP tournaments. Check Fantasy Alarm’s MLB DFS pitcher projections and hitter projections for the data-driven edge to build winning lineups across DraftKings and FanDuel. Before locking your roster, verify the MLB weather tool for any late-breaking environmental changes, run your builds through the Fantasy Alarm MLB lineup optimizer, and check MLB DFS ownership percentages before finalizing any GPP entry to find the contrarian stacks where the leverage lives.

Slate Weather Alert

Notable wind and precipitation conditions by park today:

  • Citizens Bank Park (CWS @ PHI, 1:35 PM): 85°, 2% precip, 14 mph winds blowing OUT to right. One of the best offensive environments on the slate. PHI stacks get a significant park-factor boost.
  • Yankee Stadium (BOS @ NYY, 1:35 PM): 82°, 5% precip, 14 mph winds blowing OUT to right. Offense-friendly conditions elevate the NYY game stack ceiling.
  • Truist Park (PIT @ ATL, 1:35 PM): 81°, 34% precip, 6 mph. Delay risk is real, more likely late than early. 
  • Target Field (KC @ MIN, 2:10 PM): 85°, 23% precip, 13 mph winds blowing IN. Winds blowing in suppress offense modestly.
  • Busch Stadium (CIN @ STL, 2:15 PM): 87°, 15% precip, 11 mph winds blowing IN.  Full confidence in STL stack.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

Cam Schlittler (R, NYY vs. BOS)

Schlittler is the best arm on this slate and one of the most dominant young starters in baseball right now. His overall FIP of 2.13 and xFIP of 2.83 are elite by any standard, and the split-specific numbers back it up: against right-handed batters his FIP is 2.35 with a WHIP of just 0.63, and against left-handed batters his FIP drops to 1.98. His K% of 28.5% and K/9 of 9.90 confirm he misses bats in both directions. New York is a -154 home favorite with wind blowing out to right at 10-15 mph at Yankee Stadium, which is one of the most offense-friendly environments on the slate. At $10,700 DK and $11,000 FD he is the primary pitching target for any build.

Kevin Gausman (R, TOR vs. BAL)

Gausman is the second-cleanest pitching profile on the slate and a natural pairing with the Toronto home advantage. His overall FIP of 2.94 and xFIP of 3.40 with a WHIP of 1.09 confirm consistent production. Against right-handed batters his FIP is 3.17 and his xFIP is 3.07, a tight gap that signals sustainable performance. Against left-handed batters his FIP drops to 2.79 with an xFIP of 3.62. Baltimore enters with a lineup heavy on left-handed bats including Henderson, Basallo, and Cowser, which plays into Gausman’s strongest split. The Rogers Centre roof eliminates all weather variance. Toronto is a -140 home favorite. At $9,000 DK and $9,600 FD he is the ideal secondary spend-up for builds that start with Schlittler.

Jacob deGrom (R, TEX vs. CLE)

deGrom is one of the most compelling arms on the slate and his underlying numbers tell a stronger story than his surface stats suggest. His overall FIP of 3.91 looks elevated but his xFIP of 3.16 is the more reliable figure, and the split-specific story is even stronger: against right-handed batters his FIP drops to 2.88 and his xFIP is 2.55, elite marks by any standard. His K% of 30.1% and K/9 of 10.86 rank second only to Schlittler among featured starters today. Globe Life Field operates under a retractable roof, removing all weather variables. Texas is a -144 home favorite against Cleveland. At $9,600 DK and $9,900 FD he is the third arm on the board and the most compelling pivot off Schlittler for builds that want elite K upside at a slight salary reduction.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Joey Cantillo (L, CLE @ TEX)

Cantillo is the value arm with the most compelling recent-trend context on the slate. Texas has posted a 31.3% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, the highest opposing K rate context on the board for any featured starter. His FIP of 4.67 and xFIP of 4.64 reflect the sample-size reality of his season, but the strikeout opportunity is real: 8.13 K/9 overall with a 21.1% K rate. Globe Life Field has a retractable roof that eliminates weather variance. TEX is a -144 home favorite, which limits Cantillo’s win-bonus upside, but the K ceiling in a controlled environment against the hottest strikeout-prone lineup on the slate gives him legitimate DFS value at $6,900 DK.

Gage Jump (L, OAK @ HOU)

Jump is the most intriguing value arm on the board based purely on early-sample efficiency. His FIP of 2.44 and xFIP of 4.24 reflect a small 12-inning sample where he has limited hard contact but not yet established walk suppression. The K-prop over has connected on both of his tracked starts. Daikin Park operates under a retractable roof, eliminating all weather variables. Houston is a -113 home favorite with a lineup that features multiple right-handed power bats who are hittable for a left-handed arm early in the sample. At $7,100 DK and $8,800 FD he is the salary-relief pitcher that unlocks premium stack building alongside Schlittler or Gausman.

Top Options for Strikeouts

These arms carry the highest K-ceiling profiles on today’s 10-game slate:

Best Odds for a Win

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Top Hitters

Ronald Acuna (OF, ATL)

Acuna is the premier offensive talent in the Atlanta stack and one of the most dangerous hitters on this entire slate when fully locked in. His wRC+ against right-handed pitching is 150.9 with a slash of .296/.404/.488, a walk rate of 14.6%, and a K% of just 17.9%. He faces Bubba Chandler, who carries a walk rate of 6.2 per nine innings and an xFIP of 4.88 against right-handed batters. Chandler has essentially no command, which means Acuna’s elite on-base skills and speed will be amplified even on days where he doesn’t get a big hit. At $5,800 DK and $3,900 FD he is the anchor of the ATL stack.

Randy Arozarena (OF, SEA)

Arozarena is the headliner in the Seattle stack against Jack Flaherty and one of the best values in the top-hitter tier. His wRC+ against right-handed pitching is 145.8 with a slash of .295/.387/.455 and an ISO of .159. He faces Flaherty, who has a FIP of 4.92 and an xFIP of 5.35 against left-handed batters. His numbers against right-handed batters are stronger, but his vs-RHP profile is solid enough that the matchup is still favorable. At $4,900 DK and $3,600 FD he is a power anchor in the SEA stack.

Colson Montgomery (3B/SS, CWS)

Montgomery is the centerpiece of the White Sox contrarian stack against Aaron Nola at $4,600 DK. He faces Nola’s worst split today: against left-handed batters, Nola carries a FIP of 5.44 and an xFIP of 4.56, numbers that rank among the most hittable pitcher-handedness splits on the slate. Citizens Bank Park has 14 mph winds blowing out to right today, which amplifies the offensive environment for the entire White Sox order. At $4,600 DK he is the premium piece in the CWS contrarian build and a strong GPP differentiator given White Sox ownership suppression as heavy underdogs.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Jacob Gonzalez (1B, CWS)

Gonzalez is the near-minimum connector piece in the CWS contrarian stack at $2,200 DK who targets Nola’s worst split. The structural value is clear: at $2,200 DK he is one of the most efficient salary-compression plays on the board. The entire White Sox order is targeting Nola’s 5.44 FIP against left-handed batters, and with 14 mph winds blowing out at Citizens Bank Park, even the bottom third of the lineup generates DFS scoring through the environment. He is the salary unlock that allows you to fit Schlittler or Gausman alongside Montgomery and multiple premium bats.

Lane Thomas (OF, KC)

Thomas is one of the cleanest value plays on the slate at $2,700 DK. Against left-handed pitching he carries a 126.4 wRC+ with a .268/.408/.375 slash, an ISO of .107, and a walk rate of 19.7%, one of the best plate discipline marks among value-priced hitters today. He faces Connor Prielipp, whose FIP is 3.74 and xFIP is 4.17 against right-handed batters, and enters with the platoon advantage. Kansas City enters as the slight road favorite. His salary allows you to construct the KC stack without sacrificing a premium bat elsewhere in the build.

Nathaniel Lowe (1B, CIN)

Lowe is the value anchor and the individual spotlight in the Cincinnati contrarian stack at $3,600 DK and is one of the best production-to-price plays on the board. Against right-handed pitching he carries a 150.8 wRC+ with a slash of .273/.353/.570 and an ISO of .298. He faces Michael McGreevy, whose FIP of 4.63 and xFIP of 4.42 against left-handed batters confirm that hitters with that profile have had success against him this season. He bats fourth in the Cincinnati order, maximizing his run-scoring and RBI opportunity. At $3,600 DK he is the single most efficient individual play in the STL vs CIN game environment.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Philadelphia Phillies vs. David Sandlin

Why: Sandlin is a limited-sample arm making a spot start for Chicago, and the Phillies present one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball against right-handed pitching. Citizens Bank Park has 14 mph winds blowing out to right today, one of the most offense-friendly conditions in the game. Kyle Schwarber brings a 150 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with an ISO of .359. Bryce Harper adds a 168.5 wRC+ with an ISO of .304, one of the elite individual offensive profiles on this slate. Philadelphia is a -170 home favorite. Aaron Nola pitching for PHI in the other side of this game creates a two-sided opportunity, but the PHI stack vs Sandlin is the primary construction given the lineup’s RHP split production.

Players to Stack: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh.

Primary Stack: Kansas City Royals vs. Connor Prielipp

Why: Prielipp is a left-handed Minnesota starter whose FIP of 3.74 and xFIP of 4.17 against right-handed batters are hittable numbers for a KC lineup loaded with right-handed bats. Bobby Witt leads the order at $6,100 DK, Maikel Garcia bats third with a 183.5 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and Salvador Perez adds a 123.0 wRC+ vs LHP. Kansas City enters as the slight road favorite at -115. Target Field carries 23% precip with a yellow/green delay risk that is more likely late-game than early, and the game is expected to finish regardless. At full confidence the KC lineup vs Prielipp is one of the most productive individual-splits stacks on the board.

Players to Stack: Bobby Witt, Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez, Lane Thomas.

Primary Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Rhett Lowder

Why: Jordan Walker anchors with a 153.6 wRC+ vs RHP.

Players to Stack: Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt, Lars Nootbaar.

Contrarian Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. Bubba Chandler

Why: Chandler has posted a 6.0 walk rate per nine innings this season and an FIP of 5.05 with an xFIP of 5.15. He is not a pitcher who locates consistently, which means Atlanta’s lineup will earn free passes and put traffic on base regardless of how hard they hit the ball. Against right-handed batters his xFIP is 4.88. Ronald Acuna leads the order with a 150.9 wRC+ vs RHP, Matt Olson adds a 154.4 wRC+, and Ozzie Albies contributes a 108.1 wRC+ as the lineup bridge. Atlanta is a -155 heavy home favorite. The 34% precip risk at Truist Park is the primary concern and must clear before committing. If the game is confirmed playable, this is the highest-ceiling contrarian stack on the board given PIT’s implied underdog status and Chandler’s volatility.

Players to Stack: Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley.

Contrarian Stack: Cincinnati Reds vs. Michael McGreevy

Why: McGreevy’s FIP of 4.63 and xFIP of 4.42 against left-handed batters make him hittable for a CIN lineup that has meaningful individual upside. JJ Bleday anchors with a 175.0 wRC+ against right-handed pitching at $5,200 DK, the highest individual production mark in this game environment. Nathaniel Lowe adds a 150.8 wRC+ as a left-handed bat targeting McGreevy’s LHH split. Cincinnati carries a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching as a team, below average, which suppresses ownership and creates the contrarian angle. The stack is GPP-specific: high ceiling through Bleday and Lowe, low floor through the team split context.

Players to Stack: JJ Bleday, Nathaniel Lowe, Sal Stewart, Spencer Steer.

Contrarian Stack: Chicago White Sox vs. Aaron Nola

Why: The White Sox send most of their lineup against Nola’s weaker split.

Players to Stack: Colson Montgomery, Jacob Gonzalez, Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Vargas.

Contrarian Stack: Seattle Mariners vs. Jack Flaherty

Why: Flaherty’s FIP of 4.92 and xFIP of 5.35 against left-handed batters are among the worst starter profiles on the slate vs a specific handedness. SEA carries a 119.2 wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the season, the highest team offense split vs RHP on this slate, and several key bats in their order target Flaherty’s worst split. Comerica Park has 0% precipitation and clear weather. Randy Arozarena anchors with a 145.8 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Julio Rodriguez bats second at a 100.9 wRC+ vs RHP. The SEA stack is the cleanest weather-safe contrarian play with the best underlying team offensive split on the board.

Players to Stack: Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, Luke Raley.

MLB DFS Lineups: Core Hitters & Pitchers

The “Chalk” (Popular)The “Pivot” (Low Owned)The Winning Logic
Cam Schlittler (SP1)Jacob deGrom (SP Pivot)deGrom’s xFIP of 3.16 overall and FIP of 2.88 vs right-handed batters rival Schlittler’s underlying profile at $1,100 less on DK. Globe Life’s roof eliminates weather variance.
PHI vs Sandlin (primary)ATL vs Chandler (contrarian)Citizens Bank Park carries 14 mph winds blowing out today. Schwarber and Harper are elite vs right-handed pitching and Sandlin is a limited-sample arm. ATL vs Chandler exploits his 6.2 walk rate and PIT underdog status if the weather clears at Truist Park.
Jacob Gonzalez (core value)Nathaniel Lowe (pivot value)Gonzalez at $2,200 DK is the near-minimum anchor for CWS vs Nola contrarian builds. Lowe at $3,600 DK delivers a 150.8 wRC+ vs RHP in the CIN vs McGreevy stack, the highest individual production-to-price play in that game.

The core DFS lineup foundation for DraftKings and FanDuel across today’s 12-game slate.

  1. Cam Schlittler
  2. Joey Cantillo
  3. Kyle Schwarber
  4. Colson Montgomery
  5. Nathaniel Lowe
  6. Jacob Gonzalez

Player Pool

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Stacks

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