Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Sunday, May 17th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS projections, running lineups through our DFS optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

We have a fascinating 10-game main slate to navigate on DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have been following my process, you know that Sundays are all about finding the intersection of elite peripheral data and the occasional high-variance chaos of weekend rotations. Today is no different. We have everything from a high-stakes Subway Series in Queens to a massive park factor shift in Minnesota that is going to change how you build your pitching staff. Let's dive into the data and find those smash spots.

Slate: 10-Game Main  |  Lock Time: 1:35 PM ET, Sunday, May 17, 2026

MLB Weather Today, 5/17

Target Field: The most significant variable on this slate is the environment at Target Field for the Brewers and Twins. We have 17 mph winds blowing straight in from center field.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Paul Skenes (PIT) 

Skenes is the premier spend-up option and remains the top overall priority on this slate. He enters this start after a masterclass performance where he dominated for 8.0 innings with 10 strikeouts in his last outing. He currently carries a 1.98 ERA and a 6-2 record. His elite strikeout rate and double-digit K/9 provide a ceiling that is unmatched today. Skenes relies on a triple-digit heater and a devastating splinker that has quickly become one of the most unhittable pitches in the game.

The splits back up the narrative. Against right-handed hitters Skenes carries a 34.3% strikeout rate with a 31.4 K-BB% and a 2.37 xFIP. Against left-handed hitters he still posts a 27.8% strikeout rate and a 2.46 FIP. Philadelphia enters with a wRC+ of 96 against right-handed pitching this season, placing them in the middle of the pack as an opponent. While the Phillies are a disciplined veteran group, Skenes has the raw velocity and elite pitch quality to overwhelm them regardless of lineup construction.

Zack Wheeler (PHI) 

Wheeler serves as the primary pivot from Skenes for those prioritizing stability and a high veteran floor. He enters Sunday with a 2.55 ERA and a 2-0 record. He has a long track record of pitching deep into games with elite consistency. His ability to limit walks and induce weak contact makes him a preferred safe ace for cash games.

The splits data tells a layered story. Against right-handed hitters, Wheeler is elite: 28.9% strikeout rate, a 26.3 K-BB%, and a 1.26 FIP alongside a 2.08 xFIP. Against left-handed hitters the profile softens considerably, with a 19.3% strikeout rate and a 4.29 xFIP. Pittsburgh carries a wRC+ of 114 against right-handed pitching this season, making them a more dangerous lineup than their reputation suggests. Wheeler is a dependable cash game asset, but his GPP ceiling is capped by a Pittsburgh offense that has performed well versus righties in 2026. His K-prop sits at 6.5 with a 25% historical over hit rate in his sample, so strikeout totals should be approached conservatively relative to the top tier.

Gavin Williams (CLE) 

Williams is a standout tournament option today because his strikeout metrics are elite across the board. He currently holds a 5-3 record with a 3.74 ERA. He draws a phenomenal matchup against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that whiffs frequently against power righties.

The splits confirm the ceiling. Against right-handed hitters Williams posts a 27.2% strikeout rate and a 3.43 xFIP. Against left-handed hitters he is arguably even sharper, carrying a 30.8% strikeout rate and a 3.10 xFIP. Cincinnati carries a 23.3% team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, giving Williams a high-strikeout floor in addition to his raw stuff. The K-prop sits at 7.5 with the over priced at plus-128, and his model hit rate lands at 44% on the over. While Williams has dealt with efficiency issues in recent starts, this is a classic stuff-versus-discipline matchup where his high-90s heater can dominate a high-strikeout opponent in GPP formats.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Grant Holmes (ATL) 

Holmes takes the mound at Truist Park in a favorable spot for a win bonus. He currently holds a 2-1 record with a 4.35 ERA. The visiting Boston Red Sox carry a wRC+ of 80 against right-handed pitching this season, placing them among the weakest offensive units on the slate when facing righties. Holmes benefits from pitching for an Atlanta team that provides elite run support at home, which elevates his win equity relative to his raw stuff.

His strikeout profile is modest. Holmes carries a 19.2% strikeout rate with a K/9 of 7.4 against right-handed hitters and a comparable profile against lefties. His K-prop sits at just 4.5, making him purely a win-bonus and salary-relief option rather than a strikeout upside play. For tournament purposes he is most valuable as the arm that enables two expensive bats in the same lineup.

Bailey Ober (MIN) 

The 17 mph winds blowing in make Ober an elite weather-aided play today. As a fly-ball pitcher, the environmental suppression of his primary weakness significantly mitigates the risk of the long ball. He enters with a 4-2 record and a 3.46 ERA.

The splits require context. Against right-handed hitters Ober carries a 22.4% strikeout rate and a 3.54 xFIP, which is legitimate. Against left-handed hitters his profile softens meaningfully to a 14.7% strikeout rate and a 5.40 xFIP, and Milwaukee carries a wRC+ of 109 against right-handed pitching, making them a legitimately dangerous lineup on a neutral-weather day. The wind is the variable that changes the calculus and allows Ober to be more aggressive in the zone. His K-prop sits at 4.5, and his value is entirely weather-dependent. Monitor conditions at first pitch.

Elmer Rodriguez (NYY) 

Do not let the 5.19 ERA scare you off. That surface-level number masks his utility on this specific slate. Rodriguez is the ultimate salary saver, and his value is entirely tied to the matchup: he faces a Mets lineup that carries a wRC+ of 86 against right-handed pitching, placing New York among the weaker offensive units on the slate. His K-prop sits at just 3.5, and his historical over hit rate is 0%, which means the expectation is limited strikeout upside. Rodriguez is not a K-ceiling play. He is the budget key that unlocks expensive power bats like Aaron Judge in your construction. At near-minimum price, the salary compression is the value, not the performance upside.

Top Options For Strikeouts

The two top strikeout targets in today's MLB DFS projections each draw tough opponents. K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the eight-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. 

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Jose Ramirez (3B, CLE) 

Ramirez is the anchor of any Guardians stack and one of the premiere names on the slate. He faces Brady Singer, a right-handed sinker-baller who currently carries a 5.79 ERA and is equally exploitable regardless of batter handedness. Singer's FIP against left-handed hitters sits at 6.46 with an xFIP of 4.33, making him genuinely vulnerable to Ramirez's left-handed pull power. The matchup is real even if Ramirez's overall split against right-handed pitching has been below his historical standard this season. His ability to manufacture runs through power and speed gives him multi-category upside that few hitters can match, and he remains the premier spend-up at third base when targeting the Cleveland stack.

Bobby Witt (SS, KC) 

Witt is currently playing at an MVP-caliber level. His combination of elite sprint speed and high exit velocities makes him a threat to record multiple extra-base hits on any given afternoon. Against right-handed pitching this season he carries a wRC+ of 138 with an ISO above .183, confirming that his production is sustainable and not a small-sample illusion. He draws a favorable matchup against the St. Louis pitching staff, providing a massive ceiling at the shortstop position. His ability to manufacture runs with his legs adds a floor that few other hitters can match on this slate.

Drake Baldwin (C, ATL) 

Baldwin has been on an absolute tear recently, delivering high-impact power from the catcher position. He draws a premier matchup today at Truist Park against Brayan Bello, who currently carries a 6.46 ERA. Against left-handed hitters, Bello's FIP climbs to 8.07 with a 5.25 xFIP, a historically catastrophic mark that signals an inability to keep the ball in the park against left-handed contact. Baldwin carries a wRC+ of 134 against right-handed pitching and is perfectly positioned to exploit Bello's platoon struggles. He is one of the highest-floor plays in the Braves stack.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Michael Harris (CF, ATL) 

Harris stands out as one of the highest-value plays on the entire slate when accounting for price. Against right-handed pitching this season he carries a wRC+ of 160 with a wOBA of .405, numbers that rival the elite bats on this board at a fraction of the cost. Playing at home against Bello's shaky FIP, Harris benefits from the same catastrophic platoon split as the rest of the Atlanta left-handed hitters. He provides high-end speed and power upside at a significant discount, making him a core piece for rosters trying to fit two elite starting pitchers like Skenes and Wheeler.

Luis Garcia Jr. (1B, WAS)

Garcia is a steady on-base piece for Washington stacks targeting Brandon Young. Against right-handed pitching this season he carries a wRC+ of 100 with a 14.0% strikeout rate, one of the lowest on the slate, making him an extremely difficult at-bat for a young pitcher still building command. His floor is contact-driven rather than power-driven, with a .158 ISO versus righties, but the combination of a low punch-out rate and plus plate discipline gives him a realistic path to multi-hit production in a stack that features ceiling bats like CJ Abrams and James Wood above him. At a salary-relief price point, Garcia is the connective tissue that allows Washington stacks to pay up elsewhere in the lineup.

Yohendrick Pinango (LF, TOR) 

Pinango provides a steady on-base floor for Toronto stacks. He has been disciplined at the plate and has shown a recent knack for finding gaps in the defense. He is a high-value outfielder for budget-conscious builds looking for exposure to the Blue Jays' implied total against Detroit

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. Brayan Bello

Why: The Braves are at home in a smash spot against Bello, who carries a 6.46 ERA and is historically vulnerable against left-handed hitters. Bello's FIP against lefties is 8.07 with a 5.25 xFIP, representing one of the most exploitable splits on the slate. Matt Olson leads this stack with a wRC+ of 190 against right-handed pitching this season, the highest mark of any named hitter today. Michael Harris adds a wRC+ of 160 at a value price. Ozzie Albies provides a wRC+ of 112 with strong contact rates. The entire lineup sets up with genuine multi-hit upside given Bello's inability to limit exit velocity against left-handed contact.

Players to Stack: Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies.

Primary Stack: Baltimore Orioles vs. Miles Mikolas

Why: Mikolas carries a 7.00 ERA and relies almost entirely on pitching to contact. Against right-handed hitters his K% is just 13.3% with a K/9 of 5.09, confirming that he misses virtually no bats. Against left-handed hitters his FIP climbs to 6.43. Baltimore ranks near the top of the league in HardHit%, making this a prime spot for a barrage of extra-base hits. Adley Rutschman leads the stack with a wRC+ of 149 against right-handed pitching and provides the safest floor. Taylor Ward adds a wRC+ of 134. Note that Gunnar Henderson has posted a 81.3 wRC+ against righties this season, making him a contrarian choice within the stack rather than a chalk anchor.

Players to Stack: Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson.

Primary Stack: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jack Flaherty

Why: Flaherty holds a 5.73 ERA and the Blue Jays own one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball against right-handed pitching at 18.2%. Flaherty's tendency to walk hitters elevates the Jays' on-base floor, and his FIP against left-handed hitters sits at 6.20 with a 6.28 xFIP, making the platoon angle for Toronto's left-handed hitters genuine. Daulton Varsho provides the most reliable bat at 102 wRC+ versus righties. Be cautious with George Springer, whose wRC+ against right-handed pitching sits at just 56 this season. Vladimir Guerrero carries a 93 wRC+ versus righties, below his career expectations, though his on-base skills and walk rate keep him in range for cash game consideration.

Players to Stack: Daulton Varsho, Vladimir Guerrero, Yohendrick Pinango, George Springer.

"Contrarian" Stack:  Cleveland Guardians vs. Brady Singer

Why: Most players will overlook the Guardians, but their lineup matches up well against Singer's sinker-heavy approach. Singer's 5.79 ERA and a 6.46 FIP against left-handed hitters make him exploitable at multiple points in the lineup. Chase DeLauter is the most productive Guardians bat versus right-handed pitching this season at a wRC+ of 129 with a .216 ISO, and he represents legitimate upside at a discount price. Ramirez anchors the stack through his veteran floor and platoon edge as a left-handed hitter. Steven Kwan's wRC+ against righties sits at 80 this season, so he is best used as salary relief rather than a core piece.

Players to Stack: Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, Travis Bazzana, Steven Kwan.

"Contrarian" Stack: Washington Nationals vs. Brandon Young

Why: Young is an inexperienced arm with a 4.15 ERA. His FIP against right-handed hitters sits at 3.70, which is manageable, but his FIP against left-handed hitters rises to 5.66 with a 5.94 xFIP, making the platoon angle for left-handed Washington bats the primary lever. CJ Abrams leads this stack with a wRC+ of 178 against right-handed pitching, one of the highest marks on the slate. James Wood adds a wRC+ of 160. Luis Garcia Jr. provides a wRC+ of 100 as a salary-relief piece. 

Players to Stack: CJ Abrams, James Wood, Luis Garcia Jr.

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The Chalk (Popular)The Pivot (Low Owned)The Winning Logic


 

Paul Skenes (SP)


 

Zack Wheeler (SP)

Wheeler offers elite veteran stability and a similar high ceiling as Skenes.


 

Braves Stack


 

Blue Jays Stack

Toronto is a high ceiling offense with an elite 18.2% K-rate vs. RHP.


 

Michael Harris (Value)


 

Yohendrick Pinango (Value)

These value bats provide elite platoon and matchup upside at their price points.

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

Player Pool

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Stacks

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