Happy Saturday, April 18th. We have a 6-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 7:10 PM ET. 

For the most up-to-date MLB DFS projections, lineup optimizer, ownership projections, and daily MLB DFS lineups, visit FantasyAlarm.com. Let's get into it.

⚡ THE SLATE DASHBOARD

  • Slate: DraftKings and FanDuel Main | 7:10 PM ET lock
  • Top Game Totals: LAD/COL  •  SD/LAA  •  STL/HOU  •  TOR/ARI 
  • Weather: Clear across the league. 
  • SP Ownership Tier: Sanchez (highly owned)  • Sale (highly owned)  •  Sheehan (moderately owned)  •  Kirby (moderately owned)  •  McCullers (moderately owned)
  • Top Park Environments: Coors Field (LAD/COL) - every hitter in that game benefits from altitude and carry
  • Top Expected Ownership: Sanchez (PHI)  •  Sale (ATL)  •  Ohtani, Tucker, Smith, Kim (LAD in Coors)  •  Sanchez, Lukes (TOR value)  •  Neto, Adell (LAA vs. Marquez)

💎 PITCHING COACH

Top Tier

Cristopher Sanchez (PHI | vs ATL |  DK $9,800 / FD $10,400)

Analysis: Sanchez has picked up right where he left off last season, when he finished second in the NL Cy Young race. The ground-ball ability is elite, and the strikeouts are up significantly for the second straight season. He sports a 2.01 ERA through four starts and all the peripherals to match. 

Chris Sale (ATL | vs PHI |  DK $9,400 / FD $10,900)

Analysis: Sale would have been a contender for that NL Cy Young as well if not for a June injury that sidelined him for multiple months. He's been vulnerable to the home run ball early this season, but has otherwise been in top form. The Phillies have struggled against LH pitching this season, with a 50 wRC+ and 23.7% strikeout rate. 

George Kirby (SEA | vs TEX |  DK $8,500 / FD $10,200)

Analysis: Kirby has had his typically elite control on display, and he's generating groundballs at an elite clip. The strikeouts are down slightly, but he has worked at least six innings in all four starts. That length gives him plenty of upside even if he isn't racking up the Ks.

Value Plays

Lance McCullers (HOU | vs STL |  DK $7,800 / FD $8,000)

Analysis: McCullers has been unlucky from a run prevention standpoint, as he's allowed a .351 BABIP and has stranded just 54% of baserunners. He's got some positive regression coming in that department that will pair nicely with his 28% strikeout rate. St. Louis has been slightly below average (96 wRC+) against RH pitching this season. 

Emmet Sheehan (LAD | vs COL  |  DK $7,200 / FD $9,600)

Analysis: Sheehan has had a rough start to his season, and now he heads into Coors Field. Fortunately, the Rockies again project to be one of the worst offenses in baseball despite their elite hitter's park. The righty has been bitten by a 30.8% HR/FB rate that will ultimately regress much closer to the league average, around 10%. Against RHP, Colorado owns just a 75 wRC+ and has struck out at the league's highest rate (26.4%). 

💎 HITTING COACH

Elite Bats

Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field (Full Lineup, LAD)

Analysis: The Dodgers are back in Coors after scoring seven runs in 30-degree temperatures last night. The weather is warmer today, and they get another great matchup against Ryan Feltner. Last season, Feltner allowed a .190 ISO to lefties. This season, he owns a 10.7% walk rate and has struck out just 16.1% of hitters while allowing 2.19 HR/9.  Ohtani is the clear top option, but the entire lineup is in play. Lefties Freeman and Muncy look fantastic at their price tags. 

Corbin Carroll (OF, ARI |  DK $6,100 / FD $4,400)

Analysis: Carroll is always one of the top options on the slate when he is facing a righty, but his matchup against Max Scherzer especially stands out. Scherzer allowed a massive .289 ISO to lefties last season, and he's already allowed two homers to lefties in three starts this season. 

Zach Neto (SS, LAA |  DK $5,300 / FD $3,600)

Analysis: Neto made big strides against RHP last season, posting a .204 ISO. In addition to the power upside, he also stole 25 bases. Marquez allowed a .232 ISO and allowed 1.58 HR/9 to righties last season. 

Value Bats (Salary Savers)

  • Hyeseong Kim (2B/SS, LAD |  DK $3,300 / FD $3,100):  Any bat in the Dodgers order is viable, and Kim offers the cheapest point of exposure. He has a little bit of pop and a bunch of speed, with the very large Coors outfield adding to his extra-base hit upside. 
  • Alex Freeland (2B, LAD |  DK $3,600 / FD $2,900):  Freeland is another cheap entry point for Dodgers exposure and a lower-owned option than Kim. He doesn't have a standout tool, but he's at least average across the board. 
  • Yoan Moncada (3B, LAA |  DK $3,500 / FD $2,800):  Moncada posted a healthy .231 ISO against righties last season. Marquez struggles with power and has very little strikeout ability these days. 
  • Miguel Andujar (3B/OF, SD |  DK $3,000 / FD $2,600):  Andujar is a cheap power option with tons of upside against the fly-balls of Kikuchi. He posted a .189 ISO against lefties last season. 

🏗️ THE STACKING BLUEPRINT

  • Primary Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers | Targets: Ohtani, Tucker, Freeman, Pages, Hernandez, Muncy, Smith | Opponent: COL / Colorado pitching staff at Coors | LAD implied
  • Why: The very obvious top offense of the slate with an implied run total over eight runs in Coors Field. Feltner struggles with power to both sides of the plate, especially lefties, and he has never posted a strikeout rate above 20%. 
  • Contrarian Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks | Targets: Carroll, Marte, Perdomo, Del Castillo, Vargas | Opponent: TOR / Max Scherzer | ARI implied
  • Why: The D-backs have struggled so far this season, but they were a top-10 offense against righties last year. The top three in the batting order (Carroll, Marte, Perdomo) will all hit left-handed off Max Scherzer, who allowed a .289 ISO to lefties last season. 
  • Contrarian Stack: Los Angeles Angels | Targets: Neto, Trout, Adell, Moncada, Schanuel, Peraza | Opponent: SD / German Marquez | LAA implied
  • Why: Marquez posted just a 14% strikeout rate last season while allowing 1.64 HR/9. The Angels rank 2nd in ISO against right-handed pitching this season. 
  • Contrarian Stack: Houston Astros | Targets: Alvarez, Altuve, Walker, Correa, Paredes, Smith, Diaz | Opponent: STL / Andre Pallante | HOU implied
  • Why: All hitters project for less than 10% ownership, and they are virtually tied with the D-backs for the second-highest implied run total on the slate. They are also loaded with fly-ball hitters that should help offset the ground-ball ability of Pallante, who has walked more batters than he has struck out this season. 

📈 THE LEVERAGE REPORT (GAME THEORY)

The "Chalk" (Popular)The "Pivot" (Low Owned)The Winning Logic
Sale and Sanchez (highly owned)Kirby and Eovaldi (moderately owned) The top four pitchers and Sheehan all project for around 30% ownership, which makes finding a low-owned pivot challenging. 
Full Dodgers Coors stack (heavy ownership)Astros, D-backs, or Angels (low-owned, excellent matchups)The Dodgers are going to be massive chalk. The Astros, in particular, look to be under-owned as a result. 
Sheehan (highly owned in Coors Field) McCullers (low-owned with strikeout upside)Sheehan has struggled this season, and McCullers has incredible strikeout upside. 

🎯 Heart of the Order

The core pieces for every lineup you build today.

  1. SP1 Chris Sale (ATL) | 
  2. Core Hitter Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 
  3. Core Hitter Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 
  4. Core Hitter Zach Neto (LAA) | 
  5. Value Hitter Hyeseong Kim (LAD) | 
  6. Value Hitter Yoan Moncada | 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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