Identifying the Value Play

With daily fantasy sports quickly gaining popularity there are many players both seasoned and new searching for the best possible strategies for putting together a roster that will give them the best chance to win money.  A key factor in developing a solid lineup is identifying the value plays at each position that will likely outscore their price tag while allowing you to allocate your cap space to some of the higher priced players on the board.

Know the scoring system

Before building any roster it is best to identify the scoring system being used as it will give you a better idea on what players to target based off any performance bonuses such as 300 yard games for quarterbacks or 100 yards games for receivers and running backs and while not all sites reward for those achievements it also helps knowing that you will not be penalized for picking a player who may not reach those milestones because you chose to spend salary elsewhere.  Most leagues offer some variance of PPR (points per reception) which adds value to receivers and running backs whose value is more in the passing game.  Most sites also award 6pts for return touchdowns which can give an added bonus to a player who also participates on special teams. Understanding how your team will earn its points will be key when identifying the value plays as you build out your roster.

Now with all of that out of the way let’s go ahead and identify some value plays for Week 1 of the NFL season using the prices set by Fan Duel.

Quarterbacks


Carson Palmer ARI $7,700- Palmer enters the 2015 season with a home matchup against a Saints defense that ranked 25th in the NFL is pass defense. Prior to Palmer’s season ending knee injury the Cardinals were averaging 271 passing yards per game which would have ranked them among the top 10 passing teams in the NFL had his season not have come to an end.  Palmer is reportedly healthy as he starts training camp and at $7,700 is almost a sure bet for a multiple touchdown performance while threatening 300 yards passing against the Saints poor pass defense.


Marcus Mariota TEN $6,900- Starting a rookie QB is always a risk but when looking for value plays there will always be a risk factor.  With Mariota he begins his NFL career with a road start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who allowed the fifth most passing yards in football last year for an average of 255.3 yards per contest.  Now while I do not expect Mariota to throw the ball all over the place in his debut he certainly has the weapons to do so with wide receivers Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter spreading the field and tight end Delanie Walker coming off a career best season where he caught 63 passes for 890 yards.  Another aspect of Mariota’s game worth talking about is his scrambling ability which means the likely opportunity for additional fantasy points from your quarterback that can help supplement average passing stats.  A multiple touchdown performance is certainly not out of the question in Week 1 given the opponent and his weapons around him.

Running Backs


Alfred Blue HOU $5,800- With Arian Foster expected to be out until the Texans Week 9 bye the lead back job turns over to Alfred Blue who at $5,800 will likely be the cheapest price for a Week 1 starting running back which makes him the best value play on the board.  Blue was a sixth round pick in 2014 but still saw a decent workload behind Arian Foster as a rookie, rushing for 528 yards and two scores on 169 carries while adding 15 catches for 113 yards and a touchdown.  The Texans open the 2015 NFL season with a home matchup against the Chiefs which presents a favorable matchup for Blue as they allowed 127.1 yards per game on the ground last season which was the fifth most in the league.  The Texans figure to rely heavily on the running game early on in the season which based purely on volume should provide Blue with above average production for his price tag.


Chris Ivory NYJ $6,400- Reports out of training camp have been favorable so far for Ivory who is coming off a season where he ran for 821 yards and a career best six touchdowns but also has some increased competition in camp for the No.1 role after the Jets signed Stevan Ridley and acquired Zac Stacey. The job looks to be Ivory’s to lose as Week 1 approaches and with it comes a matchup with the Cleveland Browns which allowed a league worst 141.6 yards per game on the ground last season.  With the Jets turning to game manager Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB now that Geno Smith is injured Ivory could find himself as the focal point of the offense especially given the matchup which should allow him to easily out produce his price tag.

Wide Receivers


Jordan Matthews PHI $6,800- The departure of Jeremy Maclin has bumped Matthews up to the Eagles likely No.1 wide receiver heading into the season and seeing that he is coming off an impressive rookie year where he caught 67 passes for 872 yards and eight touchdowns I would say he should have little issue handling his increased role.  The Eagles face off against the Falcons in Week 1 which offer a superb matchup as not only will the game be played in a dome which should be a benefit for Chip Kelly’s fast pace offense but the Falcons themselves were awful against the pass in 2014, allowing a league worst 279.9 yards per game.  As the Eagles No.1 WR Matthews should be targeted early and often in this contest and for $6,800 you will be hard pressed to find a No.1 with his upside at that price.


John Brown ARI $6,000- Brown is technically listed as the Cardinals No.2 wide receiver behind Larry Fitzgerald who is also listed at $6,000 but my money is going to be on Brown in Week 1 as the Cardinals face off against a bad Saints pass defense as explained during my Carson Palmer recommendation.  Brown really emerged last season despite having to compete with both Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd for targets but with Floyd expected to miss the first few weeks of the season due to a hand injury it will be Brown and Fitzgerald as Palmer’s main target.  My endorsement for Brown comes based off the fact that he is younger and quicker than the aging and often ailing Larry Fitzgerald at this point in his career and with Palmer’s propensity for throwing the deep ball it would not surprise me to see him connect with Brown on a home run ball during this contest.

Tight Ends


Jordan Cameron MIA $5,500- Cameron is coming off a season where he was limited to just 10 games due to injuries as concussions plagued the tight end but in those 10 games he still managed to catch 24 passes for 424 yards and two scores while averaging a career best 17.7 yards per catch.  Cameron signed with Miami in the offseason and Ryan Tannehill is a major upgrade over who the Browns were trotting out under center over the past few seasons. The Dolphins open up the season against the Redskins who allowed 883 yards and 11 touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season which rank among the worst in the NFL.  With Cameron healthy and beginning to mesh with Ryan Tannehill he could be primed for a big season and at $5,500 could be a bargain as Tannehill’s new security blanket in 2015.


Josh Hill NO $5,200- Hill instantly became a fantasy sleeper for 2015 when the Saints shockingly traded Jimmy Graham to the Seahawks in the offseason.  Along with the departure of Jimmy Graham the Saints also traded away Kenny Stills who was the team’s leading receiver in 2014 leaving them with Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks as their starting two wide receivers entering 2015.  Hill caught 14 passes for 176 yards last season but also pulled down five touchdowns which is an important stat to note seeing as nearly 1/3 of his catches went for a score.  The Saints Week 1 opponent is the Arizona Cardinals who allowed a league worst 1,076 yards to opposing tight ends in 2014 which makes Hill an interesting fantasy flier to say the least given his increased role and opponent.

Kickers


Sebastian Janikowski OAK $4,700- It’s difficult to find a value play with kickers as they are all generally priced the same but Seabass has the strongest leg in the league and the Raiders are not afraid to stick him out there from anywhere on the field which can allow him to pile up fantasy points in a hurry.  Janikowski went 12-for-15 on attempts greater than 40 yards in 2014 which accounted for nearly 70% of his field goal tries and finished the season going 19-for-22 as he connected on 86.4% of his tries.


Chandler Catanzaro ARI $4,700- Coming in at the same price point is Catanzaro who finished his rookie season going 29-for-33 while going 12 for 14 on attempts beyond 40 yards.  The Cardinals and Saints will likely hit the over during Week 1 so having either teams kicker is probably not a terrible idea but for $4,700 Catanzaro would be my choice given his leg strength and my belief that the Cardinals win this game.

Defense

Denver Broncos $4,200- The Broncos open the season at home which can cause issues for any opposing team given the elevation change but that should not discredit the Broncos defensive talent that boasts the likes of Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J.Ward to just name a few while also now being coached by long time defensive coordinator Wade Phillips this defense is being vastly underrated against the Ravens whose offense does not often strike fear in their opponents.  The Broncos pass rush alone is enough to rack up some points for your fantasy defense but their secondary is also very capable of turning an interception into a score at any time.

New York Jets $4,400- The Jets welcome the Cleveland Browns into MetLife Stadium during Week 1 which is a team that is either going to be led by Josh McCown or Johnny Manziel which should really be all you need to know.  Add in the factor that Revis Island has returned to New York along with Antonio Cromartie to help sure up a Jets secondary that has been miserable since both left New York a few years ago it seems unlikely the Browns will be able to move the ball through the air with much success.  The Jets calling card had always been its defense during Rex Ryan’s prime years and though they have struggled over past few seasons it has not been for the lack of talent.  I look for new coach Todd Bowles to use that talent he has to get after the Browns QB of choice and force them into errors for their secondary to capitalize on.  The Jets run defense has never been a real issue and it also seems unlikely the likes of Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell or Duke Johnson would be able to gain much traction.