2015 MLB Fantasy Baseball Weekly Preview: Week 20

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Week 19 was a rough week for many fantasy aficionados. Everyone was impacted, regardless whether it was DFS or your seasonal league. Quite a few noteworthy players are on the disabled list, and it’s a tough blow, given their recent production. The Marlins placed young star Jose Fernandez on the disabled list in week 18, but they had to shelf Christian Yelich just before the start of week 19. After hitting .200 and .231 in April and May respectively, he has turned it on since then. Since June 1, Yelich is hitting .304 (68-for-223) with 10 stolen bases. He was finally playing like the asset people hoped for when drafting him, but hopefully he can come back shortly after the minimum 15 days and pick up right where he left off. The other productive outfielder that found his way to the disabled list was St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk. He was placed on the disabled list with a right elbow strain, which will temporarily thwart his 2015 season. In 289 at-bats this season, he has swatted 15 home runs, driven in 44 runs and is slashing .284/.333/.561. Grichuk has really helped out a ton of people, but owners will be without his services for the time being.

This is the world of fantasy baseball. You can win seven games in a row, just to lose three players to the disabled list just a few weeks before the playoffs begin. These last few weeks before the playoffs are as important as any to analyze the waiver wire to find a diamond in the rough. For the DFS players out there, finding the right value guy is crucial to success moving forward. Cesar Hernandez had a low price tag for an extremely long time, making him almost a must-start for quite some time from June to mid-to-late July. Even with the football season looming right around the corner, don’t forget about preparing for baseball. Without further ado…..

Let’s run through another edition of the MLB Weekly Preview for MLB Week 20:

GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

For week 20, here are the cold hard facts that you need to know and consider. These are applicable to both your seasonal leagues and daily lineups.

1. Since returning from the DL, Miguel Cabrera is hitting .500 with five RBI and eight runs scored.

2. A.J. Pollock continues to mash, recording four-hit games in the team’s first two games in the series against the Reds.

3. Khris Davis leads the league with 20 RBI, while Chris Davis is second with 19.

4. Jackie Bradley Jr. had nine hits in the series against the Mariners, however, he has just two hits since.

5. Despite leading the league with 30 strikeouts this month, Sano is hitting .282 with six homers and 18 RBI.

6. The Boston Red Sox have scored the most runs in August, while the Angels have scored the fewest.

7. In DFS, take a chance on speedsters from the Dodgers and Indians, seeing as they each get a turn against Jon Lester in week 20.

INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

Even though he has enjoyed a superb 2015 campaign, it’s unlikely that Alex Rodriguez will find himself in the lineup for the three game set in Atlanta. He hasn’t played the field in what seems like years, and it’s unlikely that is the series where that trend changes. He has 26 home runs and 69 RBI on the season, numbers not even the boldest of individuals could have fathomed. He isn’t going to play much this week, so he is one that should be left out of your lineup if you set your lineup at the beginning of each week.

Even though Billy Butler hardly plays the field, he could find himself in the lineup when the team travels to Arizona for a three game set. The team’s other first baseman haven’t produced, and given that they will face two left handers, Butler should be in the lineup. It’s been a down year for Butler, who is owned in just 20 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues. He has just nine home runs on the season and he is an average play at best.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Phillies pitcher Adam Morgan has now beaten the Blue Jays twice this season, allowing just four earned runs on 10 hits in 13 innings against that potent lineup. He must be a reliable choice because he’s beaten the best lineup twice, right? Well, not so much. He is serviceable yes. Reliable? Not so much. He hardly strikes anybody out and he is prone to the long ball. However, in a two-start week facing the Mets and Padres, take a flier on the southpaw. In the month of August, the Padres are hitting .260 (15^th best), while the Mets are hitting .246 (20^th best). It’s also worth noting that if there was ever a time for Morgan to punch batters out, it would be this week. The Mets and Padres have been swinging and missing quite a lot in August, averaging 9.4 and 7.3 strikeouts per game respectively. He will face the Mets on Monday and then the Padres on Saturday in week 20.

Another intriguing two-start pitcher this week is Mr. Robbie Ray out in Arizona. There is some value to be had with the Diamondbacks’ southpaw. In week 20, he will face two teams who rank in the bottom five in runs scored in the month of August. He goes up against the Cardinals and Athletics this week, who are averaging 3.5 and 3.4 runs per game respectively. Even though his 3-9 record is atrocious, his 3.38 ERA and 1.25 WHIP aren’t in line with his porous record. Ray has 76 strikeouts over 88 innings this season, so he has flashed the ability to miss bats. In DFS, if you want to allocate your funds elsewhere, Ray makes for a solid second option.

What’s the Verdict?

Here is the verdict on a few players in week 20 and whether or not you should play them:

Joe Kelly—Mon- @CWS (Samardzija)

Kelly hasn’t lost in a month, notching four consecutive wins to even his record at 6-6 for the 2015 campaign. He has a 5.37 ERA on the season, but he has allowed just three earned runs over his last 17 1/3 innings. He didn’t fare too well against the White Sox the last time they squared off (four runs in 3 1/3 innings). The White Sox are hitting just .243 in the month of August, while averaging 3.82 runs per game this month. Opposing hitters are hitting .284 against the Kelly this season, and even though he has a 3.22 ERA for the month, his WHIP is 1.48, a bit high for my liking.

VERDICT: No.

Derek Holland— Tue- TOR (Buehrle)

Call me crazy, but I think there is value to be had here. In his first start in over four months, he looked pretty sharp against the Mariners, striking out six batters and allowing just two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings. He threw 93 pitches (62 for strikes) in the outing, showing that the team is going to let him go out there and throw a normal workload. Yes, the Blue Jays have a stacked lineup. Tulowitzki, Bautista, and Donaldson, oh my! However, the mighty Blue Jays are hitting just .230 in August and have been boom-or-bust this month. Once again, call me crazy, but I like the matchup.

VERDICT: Yes.

Best of luck in week 20.