Welcome to another full slate on the Tuesday night Major League Baseball schedule as we dive into our top MLB bets today. With only a couple of weeks left in the regular season, the Wild Card races in both the American and National Leagues are as close as they've ever been. Let's tap into a few teams right in the middle of the playoff hunt for our MLB betting picks on Tuesday. Our top MLB picks today feature the Miami Marlins hosting the New York Mets and the Seattle Mariners taking on the Oakland Athletics. Be sure to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB bets today. Plus, the MLB daily projections will help you find the best matchups for MLB betting picks and MLB DFS lineups. Let's dive into the top MLB bets and baseball props today for Tuesday, September 19th.
MLB Best Bets for September 19th
The Miami Marlins are just a half-game back in the NL Wild Card standings ahead of tonight’s divisional matchup. The New York Mets won’t make it easy as this NL East showdown should be headlined by the offense on both sides. Mets starter Joey Lucchesi has a solid 2.83 ERA through seven starts so far this season, but some negative regression is on its way. The left-hander’s 5.71 xERA and 4.49 FIP aren’t promising indicators, neither are his low .262 BABIP and high 83.3% left-on-base rate. Lucchesi recently re-entered the Mets rotation last week and fired seven innings of one-run ball against the Diamondbacks. However, his three walks and five hits allowed compared to just two strikeouts leave a lot to be desired. The Marlins offense, meanwhile, is hitting lefties well right now with a .338 wOBA, .791 OPS, and .222 ISO over the past two weeks.
On the other side, Marlins starter Braxton Garrett could run into trouble of his own. The southpaw has strung together some solid outings lately with a 2.60 ERA over his past five starts. However, Garrett has also gotten lucky with a 4.13 FIP in this recent month-long stretch. Plus, his 4.56 xERA is still nearly a full run higher than his current 3.67 ERA for the season. Garrett will face a Mets offense that’s also knocking around left-handed pitching. New York boasts a .361 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and .838 OPS in the month of September vs lefties.
Furthermore, the bullpens for both sides have had some subpar numbers recently. The Mets’ relievers have a 5.50 ERA over the past two weeks while the Marlins’ pen has a 4.86 ERA in this span. Although these teams put up only three combined runs last night in the series opener, bank on more scoring tonight.
PICK: Mets/Marlins Over 8 Total Runs (-110 on FanDuel)
The Seattle Mariners are right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race and they’ll turn to Luis Castillo tonight to try to anchor another win. The Oakland Athletics, on the other hand, currently have the worst record in the majors with 100+ losses on their resume already. As for Castillo, he has a 2.32 ERA over his past five starts and is coming off a pair of impressive outings against the Rays and Angels. The Seattle right-hander should post another strong start tonight against a woeful Oakland offense. The Athletics have been among the league’s worst against righties all year and that hasn’t changed. Over the past week vs righties, the A’s have a .264 wOBA, 70 wRC+, .199 BA, and 30.4% strikeout rate.
Bryan Woo just tossed five scoreless innings against Oakland last night and the Seattle pen finished off the shutout. Castillo can easily replicate that while the Mariners have some of their top late-inning arms rested and available tonight, including Andres Munoz and Matt Brash. Seattle can’t afford to lose games like this one if it wants to keep their playoff hopes alive – so expect Castillo and those top bullpen guys to limit the A’s hitters.
Meanwhile, the Mariners offense may not score many runs itself as this game ends up lower-scoring – in similar fashion to last night’s 5-0 final. Oakland starter Paul Blackburn has been decent lately with a 3.24 ERA since the beginning of August. Although he did allow four runs on the road to the Astros last time out, that’s understandable. The Seattle lineup, though, has also been bad against right-handed pitching recently. The Mariners have a .251 wOBA, 61 wRC+, 31% strikeout rate, and .081 ISO vs righties over the past week. Somehow, that’s slightly worse than the A’s have been in the split.
PICK: Mariners/Athletics Under 7.5 Total Runs (-115 on DraftKings)