We’re coming off a strong day for the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks and we’re looking to keep that momentum rolling with our baseball bets today. We wisely leaned on the arms of Shane McClanahan and Zac Gallen, the bat of Wander Franco and our lack of faith in James Paxton and Tyler Anderson. Well, Anderson actually turned out a solid effort an now we need to be concerned about the lack of punch from the bats of the Boston Red Sox, but that’s not a problem hen you turn a strong profit. The plan to incorporate more MLB prop bets is in effect and while we only hit one of the two yesterday, the granular research is definitely helping with the overall.
- Yesterday’s Record: 4-1
- Season Record: 66-68-2
- Bankroll: -9.4 units
Just 10 games today with an early start, so let’s get to today’s action.
MLB Best Bets for May 25
We’re going right back to this series as it’s been a heavyweight battle between two AL East powerhouse offenses. Through three games, they’ve plated a combined 41 runs and while we tend to see a bit of a slow down during a day-game that follows a night-game, we also have Alek Manoah on the bump for the Jays. The last time he faced the Rays, he was torched for seven runs over just 4.2 innings and while he’s had momentary flashes of a quality performance, he continues to pitch to way too much contact, he’s walking too many guys and a Rays team that leads the league in OPS, wOBA and ISO against righthanded pitching is not going to let him get away with many mistakes. On the other side, Zach Eflin has been rock solid, but he’s now given up 11 earned runs over his last three starts (19 innings) and these Toronto bts are wide awake with a .360 wOBA and 131 wRC+ over the past week. Between guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Jr, Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman, the Jays have five hitters in the lineup who all have an OPS over .800 with a wOBA over .320 against righties this season. The odds seem a little weird as the line just recently flipped, but nine runs just doesn’t seem out of the question.
Pick: Blue Jays/Rays over 8.5 runs (+100 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Pick: Josh Lowe over 1.5 total bases (+115 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Without much fanfare, the Washington Nationals have been a very strong team against left-handed pitching this season. They aren’t hitting for a ton of power, but they have the seventh-highest wOBA (.346) with the eighth-highest wRC+ (116) against southpaws and they are striking out at only a 17-percent clip. Blake Snell settled down for a few quality starts, but continues to walk too many guys and just got thumped by Boston his last time out. On the other side, Washington is throwing righty Jake Irvin and while the Padres offense hasn’t exactly been clicking, they are hitting for more power over the past week, posting a .223 ISO over that span and they are drawing a ton of walks. Things could settle down fairly quickly and either starter could get chased, so we’ll focus on the game total for the first five innings and throw in a player prop for some additional revenge.
Pick: Padres Nationals First 5 Innings over 5 runs (-110 on BetMGM)
Pick: Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases (+110 on BetMGM)
*all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned