As stated in previous editions of the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks, I’m a big fan of taking a little time off from betting baseball at various points. We had a nice winning streak going but got derailed last Thursday, so I opted to take the whole weekend off to clear my mind heading into this week. Even though we offer daily MLB betting picks, you don’t HAVE to bet every day. Now, I’ve stayed on top of the latest MLB betting odds so I could track things that happened and make sure I wasn’t missing anything I needed to know for this week, so we are ready to start fresh once again and see what betting picks for today look good. It’s a shorter than usual slate for Monday, so keep that in mind. Shorter slates tend to see tighter odds, so let’s see what kind of value bets the books have left for us.

  • Season Record: 91-87-2
  • Bankroll: -5.93 units

MLB Best Bets for June 19 

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

While we have two starting pitchers who don’t exactly instill confidence in anyone wanting to back either, we have one who is clearly worse than the other and one offense that is playing significantly better than the other. Fortunately, both things line up for us to back the Tigers, at least for the first half of this game. We have routinely picked against Royals righthander Jordan Lyles and the fact that he’s allowed no fewer than four runs in nine of his last 10 starts and has only gone past the fifth inning in three of those, we can probably expect him to allow a few runs early on in this game. It helps that the Tigers are back at home and feeling good after taking three of four from the Twins this past weekend and have a .362 wOBA with a .233 ISO over the past week. Detroit’s starter Reese Olson opened his time in the majors with two solid starts, but was promptly blasted by the Braves in his last appearance. But this Royals team, which has a .290 wOBA and a 24.1-percent K-rate against righties this year, has had its struggles and has lost 11 of its last 12 and has averaged just three runs per game in that span. The Tigers should have a lead, even if it’s a small one, by the end of five innings.

Pick: Detroit Tigers 1st 5 Innings -0.5 run line (-115 on Caesars Sportsbook)

 

 

Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have been one of the most exciting teams to watch in recent weeks and it is all attributed to the kids who have been called up here in the first half. The infield of Spence Steer, Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain has helped lead this team to eight-straight wins with an average of six runs per game over that span. They’re coming off back-to-back sweeps of the Royals and Astros and now face lefty Austin Gomber who they punished for five runs on eight hits and two walks over 4.1 innings when they faced him at Coors Field. Great American Smallpark isn’t really much different, is it? The Rockies are not a good offensive team, by any means and their numbers against southpaws have been terrible. Still, I have a tough time believing Brandon Williamson is going to keep them in check for the whole game or even just a few innings. The double-digit over/under always gives me pause when there’s a team like the Rockies in the mix, but we’re going to expect some fireworks here.

Pick: Rockies/Reds over 10 runs (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Pick: Matt McLain over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Both the Padres and Giants have found strong offensive success recently, but we have a little bit of a pitching mismatch going on here with Michael Wacha starting for San Diego and Sean Manaea taking on the bulk relief role following Ryan Walker serving as an opener. Walker hasn’t allowed a run in five of his last six appearances, but will tangle with the top of that Padres lineup which is posting strong numbers over the past week. And whenever he yields to Manaea, well, we’ve already seen the Padres hit him hard earlier in the season and he’s allowed eight earned runs over his last three appearances. As for Wacha, he’s been incredible this season and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his last eight starts. He’s also seen a slight uptick in his K-rate over this last three starts, so while the Giants are swinging the bats well, he should be able to minimize the damage. Both bullpens have been rock-solid, so it’s going to be about the hot start to see who closes this one out.

Pick: San Diego Padres 1st 5 Innings Money Line (-115 on BetMGM)