And just like that, the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks are back on-track. We’re not out of the woods just yet so we’re not going to go crazy here, but having a strong day yesterday was necessary. Not only does it begin to replenish our bankroll, but it instills confidence in the process once again. We haven’t done anything different. We weren’t chasing some longshot same game parlay. We just followed the trends we’ve been studying and maintained our process and continued with our baseball betting analysis. We’ll do the same again today as we look to build some momentum again.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 3-0
  • Season Record: 42-32-1
  • Bankroll: +4.57 units

We’ve got a short slate today with an early starts so let’s get right to it. Fair warning, I am not a fan of today’s match-ups. Day games can be tricky and the odds are pretty tight.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 27 

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels

While I don’t want to jinx myself, we’ll start with a little low-hanging fruit here. Shohei Ohtani is on the mound for the Angels and he’s already dispatched of the A’s with six scoreless frames and 10 strikeouts on Opening Day. No matter how many times we watch Oakland, they just don’t move the needle at all because they simply do not have a big-league lineup. They’ve lost 11 of their last 13 games and are now 9-16 against the run line. While that record isn’t terrible in the grand scheme of things, it’s second-worst in the majors. A .285 wOBA with a 25-percent K-rate just isn’t going to cut it today. On the other side, expect the Angels to put up some runs on lefty JP Sears. He put up a strong strikeout total against Texas his last time out, but the Halos have a .359 wOBA against southpaws this season and they have a K-rate below 20-percent. We’ll back Los Angeles on the run line since there’s no value on the money line, obviously.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 run line (-135 on DK Sportsbook)

Washington Nationals at New York Mets

I’m as surprised as anyone that the Nationals are on the verge of a road sweep in Flushing, but in the realm of “that’s baseball, Susan,” it is what it is. The money line has the Mets as a heavy favorite, but there’s no value in it and, frankly, I don’t really trust them, to cover the run line. I just don’t believe in Joey Lucchesi. I know he had a great outing against the Giants, but San Francisco doesn’t hit lefties at all. The Nationals do. In fact, Washington has the eighth-best wOBA (.339) against southpaws and they only have a 15.3-percent strikeout rate. I think they can put some runs up in this game. Can the Mets do the same against Trevor Williams? He’s been pretty solid over his last three starts and the Mets are middle-of-the-road with regard to how they’ve hit right-handed pitching. But I see both teams making this a competitive game and neither bullpen is particularly overwhelming. I won’t bet the winner, but I do believe we’ll see some runs today. 

Pick: Nationals/Mets over 8.5 runs (-105 on BetMGM)

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

The Braves are going for the four-game sweep today and the Marlins are looking to avoid their fifth-straight loss. They’ve been outscored 31-12 over their last five and the winning team has cleared the run line in each game. While Braxton Garrett has looked decent this year, Atlanta is one of the top-hitting teams against lefties, posting a .389 wOBA with an impressive .218 ISO. The Marlins have been struggling at the plate all year, but Kyle Wright is still working himself into mid-season form. He hasn’t made it out of the sixth inning in three starts, his pitch counts have been high and he’s given up nine runs in 13.2 innings (three starts). The Marlins bats have put up eight runs over the last two games, so while I don’t expect them to win this one, I do believe they can score a few runs and contribute to the over, even though we’re looking at an early start.

Pick: Marlins/Braves over 8 runs (-120 on DK Sportsbook)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned