If there is one thing we’ve learned here during the 2023 MLB season, it’s that betting baseball is not an easy task. After all, any sport where a 30-percent success rate is considered Hall of Fame level has to be difficult to navigate. How else do we explain things like the Pittsburgh Pirates being one of the top teams in baseball. The books have corrected themselves with regard to targeting teams like Oakland, Detroit and Washington while we’ve also seen how difficult it can be to navigate early-season random successes like Drew Smyly and Logan Allen. We are still in the black here, but our stack has dwindled significantly. But don’t be discouraged as we will build things back up with another hot streak. That’s just the nature of things and anyone who tells you differently is not giving you the full story. Simple as that. But I’m not sitting here making excuses. I’m ready to jump back into the MLB Best Bets for today and get us started for the week.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 1-2
  • Season Record: 37-28-1
  • Bankroll: +4.12 units

We’ve got 11 games to look at today, so let’s get started.



MLB Best Bets for Monday, April 24 

Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds

You’d be hard-pressed to find a bigger Nick Lodolo fan than me, but he’s coming up with a real tough match-up today in the Rangers. Yes, Texas sits 21st in MLB with a .300 wOBA against southpaws, but they’ve shown strong plate discipline with a 10.2-percent walk rate and a 21.9-percent strikeout rate which sits on the lower end of the league. On top of that, this Rangers team is white-hot right now, winning six of their last seven and posting a league-best .403 wOBA and .209 ISO. With the game at Great American Smallpark where Lodolo has a 6.48 ERA with a 1.86 WHIP over three starts this season. On the other side, we’ve got Nathan Eovaldi who had one hiccup two starts ago, but has been stable with good strikeout numbers and very limited walks. The Reds have a 26.3-percent K-rate against righthanded pitching this season and the hitting has been soft, as evident by their .297 wOBA and .107 ISO mark. Anything can happen in a ballpark this small, but in the end, the Rangers should walk away with the win.

Pick: Texas Rangers Money Line (-115 on BetMGM)

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants

While I got burned by the Giants suddenly being able to hit a lefty hard on Saturday when they dismantled David Peterson of the Mets, I’ll accept that the sun shines on a dog’s ass once and go back to the well today and side with lefty Jordan Montgomery. Even with Saturday’s outburst, the Giants are still 28th in the league with a .271 wOBA against southpaws and they have the second-highest strikeout rate (30.9-percent) to go with it. Montgomery is coming off a tough outing against Arizona but he should be able to handle the majority of this lineup with relative ease. For the Giants, Alex Cobb takes the mound and while no one on St. Louis has much experience against him, they do have the ninth-best wOBA (.331) against righties and the plate discipline is strong. There are days when Cobb looks atrocious and there are days where he looks solid. If the Cardinals can put their patience at the plate on full display, that pitch-count will rise quickly and he’ll struggle. 

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Money Line (-120 on BetMGM)

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Pretty tough not to back Atlanta in this one with Spencer Strider on the mound. He has tremendous swing-and-miss stuff and struck out nine batters in each of his first four starts this season. He’s kept offenses limited to a .282 BABIP and his hard-hit rate is already down to 35-percent. The Marlins have the eighth-worst wOBA against right-handed pitching and their 24.3-percent K-rate is going to help Strider stay on his current path. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera has gradually worked himself up to a point where five or six innings shouldn’t be an issue and he’s been lowering his ratios steadily after two horrendous starts to open the season. But the Braves are looking to beat someone up after losing four-straight and getting swept by the Astros at home. I expect us to see the team that won eight-straight just prior to the slump and I expect them to be a force at the plate. There’s no value on the money line for this game, but I’m confident Atlanta can cover the run line here, even at home. 

Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Run Line (-120 on Caesars Sportsbook)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned