Our new stolen base player prop article was welcomed with open arms, and while our primary pick of Minnesota Twins outfielder Austin Martin missed, our targeting against Miami Marlins Start Eury Perez was spot-on as the Twins stole four bases against him, one of whom was Luke Keaschall, who was also mentioned in the article. We’ll keep that in mind his next time out. Remember, stolen base props are a high-variance market. Can they be profitable? Absolutely. We are in the early stages of identifying the best matchups and will deliver the edge you need as the season rolls on. So, let’s get to the MLB stolen base picks today.

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Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today

Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities, and today’s board features incredible betting value across five dynamic players, including two from the Diamondbacks, similar to what we saw yesterday with the Twins. You can choose from a few superstars or find a few hidden gems that are off the mainstream radar. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values. 

Also worth mentioning…

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

 

 

 

Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today

When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases

The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:

Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Wednesday, May 13:

Favorite Bet: 

Chandler Simpson, OF Tampa Bay Rays (+172) – Before locking this bet in, check with our MLB Starting Lineups page to make sure he’s playing. Simpson left Monday’s game with a leg cramp and sat out Tuesday. If it’s more of an injury than a cramp, he’ll continue to sit. If he plays, it should be wheels up. Dylan Cease is allowing the most stolen bases of any starter on today’s slate, and the Rays average 1.54 stolen base attempts per game (most in the league). Also, Blue Jays catcher Brandon Valenzuela has just a 37% caught stealing rate. Simpson has a .354 wOBA against right-handed pitching with a .372 BABIP and .372 OBP, so if he gets on-base against Cease, he’s taking off. UPDATE: Always shop for the best odds. I just found this at +210 on BetMGM.at 1:30pm ET

Longshot Bet: 

Mickey Moniak, OF Colorado Rockies (+577) – He’s not a big base-stealer, which is why he’s our longshot, but the stars seem to be aligning for Moniak to get on-base and swipe a bag today. The Pirates are throwing righthander Mitch Keller, who has allowed seven stolen bases this season, second-most on the slate today. Over 108 plate appearances, Moniak is posting a .465 wOBA with a .389 OBP against righties, and, given the dimensions at PNC Park, the Rockies are going to have to try and play a little small-ball if they want to compete in this one. Colorado does have the eighth-highest SB Att/Game (1.17), so they can be aggressive when necessary. It also helps that the Pirates catchers don’t have a lot of success throwing out base-runners – Joey Bart has a 19% caught-stealing rate on 16 attempts, while Henry Davis is at 40% on 10 attempts. Bart routinely catches Keller, as an additional FYI.