Welcome back to today’s edition of the stolen base prop article. It’s been a little cold the last couple of days, though some of the spots we’ve targeted have been good. Take yesterday’s article, for example. I’m not sure what Gunnar Henderson’s slump is all about, but we saw three other Orioles steal bases against the Rays, so while it’s tough to go back to the Henderson well again, we know that picking on the Tampa catchers is the way to go. We’ll get that winning mojo back. Remember, high-variance market, peaks and valleys and all that. Let’s dive into the research first and then let’s get to the MLB stolen base picks today.

Also, don’t forget to check out my new weekly stolen base report, as that series will continue to accrue data which will help us out on a daily basis. And speaking of daily help…you’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. And don’t forget to also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today

Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values. 

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

 

 

 

Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today

When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

 

Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases

The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:

Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Wednesday, May 20:

Favorite Bets: 

Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers (+276)

The wind is blowing and hard today at Wrigley Field, so look for the Brewers to focus on manufacturing runs the old-fashioned way rather than trying to put the ball over the ivy. Turang is just the guy to do it as he is sporting an impressive .457 wOBA with a .457 OBP against righthanded pitching and he’ll square off against righty Edward Cabrera who has allowed seven stolen bases this season, second-most on the slate. He not only has the sprint speed and an 82-percent success rate to get it done, but the Cubs backstops have combined for just a 20-percent caught-stealing success rate. 

Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners (+269)

You may also like targeting Josh Naylor if you wanted to fish for longer odds, but he doesn’t have the same sprint-speed or success rate as Arozarena. Both could have opportunities but it’s also about mitigating risk as White Sox catchers have a21.5-percent caught-stealing success rate. But Arozarena is also posting a .379 wOBA with a .404 OBP against righties. White Sox starter Sean Burke has had his struggles against lefties this season, but if you look at his career splits, righties do him dirty too. I’m using Arozarena, but if you want to maybe throw a half-unit on Naylor at +349, I wouldn’t slap you on the wrists for it.