2017 NFL Target Analysis: Week 8

We now have half the season in the books and boy has it been quite the wild ride. There aren't any clear cut Super Bowl favorites, way too many injuries for us to count, and tons of players either over or under acheiving. We have a bunch of names and players just like that on our list that you'll likely see moving up and down our charts for the weeks to come. Now let's dive into some data!

Target Leaders

For the first time this year, a tight end led the entire league in targets for a single week. Jack Doyle paced everyone with 14 targets, a season-high mark for him too. We’ve also had a running back lead the league in targets for a single week, well tie for the lead league anyways. Back in Week 6 Christian McCaffrey saw 14 targets himself, which was a four-way tie for first that week as well. 

Speaking of McCaffrey, he has climbed the ranks and currently sits ninth in targets. Not sure if you heard or not, but Carolina went ahead and traded Kelvin Benjamin right before the deadline. His 51 targets in eight games translate to over six targets per week and they’re going to be distributed somehow. McCaffrey’s volume could rise one or two extra targets per game and we could begin to see him creep towards the top-five by seasons end.

Nobody is going to catch Antonio Brown and that’s quite apparent. He has 14 targets more than second place and that lead only seemingly gets larger as we turn the page on each week. Brown’s career best in targets came back in 2015 when he saw 195 of them. He’s currently on pace for 188 so he’s going to break his own personal best, he’ll have to have a few monster volume contests, which we obviously know he’s capable of. 

Amari Cooper has really made a comeback over the past two weeks. He’s always had massive upside, he’s just had his issues hanging onto the ball which obviously affects a quarterback’s psyche about throwing them the rock a lot throughout the game. After leading the league in targets in Week 7, he had another 10 target game in Week 8, vaulting him to sixth in the NFL. The catch percentage is horrible, but he’s begun holding onto the ball and has definitely re-entered Derek Carr’s circle of trust. Expect massive volume from here on out, especially with the Raiders continuous struggle running the ball.

Target Percentage

We officially have just three hats left in the race with 30-percent or more of their team’s target shares. A.J. Green has dipped below the 30-percent marker leaving just Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry and DeAndre Hopkins above the line. Hopkins could see a drop in volume now that we have found out that Deshaun Watson will unfortunately be missing the rest of the season due to a torn ACL.

Adam Thielen who’s now fourth in the league in targets has crept into the elite target percentage category at 27 -percent. He’s been one of the more under appreciated pass catchers in the game this year and it’s likely because everyone loves the guys who score the touchdowns, not the guys who put them in position to do so.

Dez Bryant is also closing in on the top guys and he’s even closer than Thielen! Bryant’s targets could skyrocket depending on the final verdict in the Ezekiel Elliott saga. With eight weeks left, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys may be forced to throw more frequently, meaning more targets for Bryant.

Red Zone Targets

After seeing two more red zone targets come his way, Dez Bryant leads the entire NFl with 14. We already mentioned up above how Bryant could begin seeing more volume on the grand scheme of things depending on what happens with Ezekiel Elliott, but even his RZ targets alone will skyrocket without ‘Zeke. Without Elliott in the game to pound the rock for six, the Cowboys will likely intrust in there next back offensive weapon in Bryant even more than they already have.

We touched on it last week and boy did it come to fruition, but Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams red zone targets are going to plummet. The Packers had a hard enough time crossing the 50 let alone getting into the red zone. Adams and Nelson had three targets combined last week, none coming in the RZ.

Drops

Neither of the top two leaders in drops — Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen — dropped any passes in Week 8. We already spoke highly of Cooper up above and he’s been leading the league in drops basically this entire season, so why continue to fret on it? He’s clearly improving as the season progresses. 

The more I think about the high profile names like Rob Gronkowski, Jarvis Landry, Dez Bryant that are ranked in the top-10 for most drops, one thing sticks out like a sore thumb. Volume. The more volume these players receive, the more likely that drops happen. I’ve been thinking about long and hard, and it’s the players that aren’t near the league leaders in targets and receptions that are in fact near the top of the drops leaderboards that we should be more concerned about. For example, there’s definitely something to Kenny Britt only having 25 targets this year other than poor QB play. It’s the fact that 1/5th of his targets have resulted in a drop! That’s more concerning to me, someone who’s analyzing the stats, than Jarvis Landry dropping the same amount of passes but receiving 80 targets.