Week 12 was one that rewarded loyalty. Owners who’ve stuck with Mark Ingram, Le'Veon Bell and Terrelle Pryor throughout tough times this year saw some huge dividends last week. Brandin Cooks on the other hand is testing his boundaries after a stunning shut out where he wasn’t targeted a single time in a huge Saints home win. Bias against the most recent performance of a player both, positive and negative, is usually grossly overrated. Instead, it’s best to look at the overall picture to remind us what a player’s value is, and more importantly what their value will potentially be in the week ahead.
Here’s the Snap Count Recap for Week 12:
RUNNING BACKS
James Starks may have played the second most snaps of any running back in Week 12 (54), but his 2.1 yards per carry over 17 attempts leaves the door wide open for Christine Michael to challenge him in Week 13. Clearly the Packers have yet to find an answer for their backfield woes, and another week in the Packers’ offense should see Michael’s snap count increase significantly in Week 13. The Eagles backfield continues to be a carousel that has induced nausea for many fantasy owners. Wendell Smallwood was the target of many FAAB budgets last week, but he played just 22 snaps for 9 carries and 37 yards. Just avoid this mess if at all possible in these final regular season weeks ahead. The biggest disappointment though last weekend was the Seahawks offense and Thomas Rawls. He played 37 snaps, with 12 carries for just 38 yards. He should rebound at home versus the Panthers, but at this point he’s not a “must start” if you have comparable options. Jay Ajayi (47 snaps, 18 carries, 45 yards) was nearly a huge bust as well, if not for his one rushing TD.
On the positive end, Carlos Hyde was efficient this Sunday, playing 49 snaps, carrying the ball 13 times for 65 yards and a TD. Hyde will certainly be in play this week again against the Bears in all formats. Le'Veon Bell is firing on all cylinders, and on Thanksgiving Bell played 47 snaps for 142 all-purpose yards and a rushing TD. Not to be out done, David Johnson had 161 all-purpose yards with a receiving TD over his Week 12 leading 58 snaps. Luckily, Jordan Howard held his value with Matt Barkley now under center. Howard played 53 snaps, went 18/84 on the ground and 3/43 through the air. His owners can now breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to a nice matchup against an awful 49ers run defense in Week 13. Mark Ingram (42 snaps, 14 carries, 146 yards and a TD) has also held his value ever since his benching a few weeks back. Whatever has clicked for him, it’s a welcomed reward for owners who stuck by him.
WIDE RECEIVERS
After being one the season long leaders in red zone targets with little to show for it, Emmanuel Sanders had a huge game Sunday. Sanders played 73 snaps, caught 7 of his 1 targets for 162 yards and a TD. In what can only be explained as infuriating to Kelvin Benjamin owners, Cam Newton continues to favor Ted Ginn Jr. in the passing attack. Ginn played 41 snaps, catching 4 of his 10 targets for 115 and a TD. Benjamin played 43 snaps, but had just 6 targets. Michael Crabtree proved he was back to 100% playing 65 snaps, catching 8 of 13 targets for 110 yards. Terrell Pryor got back on track as well with Josh McCown under center again. Pryor had 131 receiving yards on 6 catches and 65 snaps and looks like a legit WR2 looking ahead to 2017.
Amari Cooper (71 snaps, 22 receiving yards), Allen Robinson (66 snaps, 24 yards) and Doug Baldwin (58 snaps, 34 yards) were all prime examples of playing time not equating to productivity. Baldwin may have been a victim of some tough scheduling for Seattle. Amari Cooper has been explosive but inconsistent for the second straight year and Allen Robinson’s 2016 drop off has been inexplicable. Another infuriating fantasy receiver, Sammy Watkins, was back in action this weekend and went 3/80 over 25 snaps. That number could easily double in Week 13, but fair warning, Watkins is another guy who can leave your stat sheet empty from time to time much like Cooper. Brandin Cooks destroyed many DFS lineups Sunday with a fluky, 0 targets. Don’t despair, in fact double down on him in DFS this week at home again against the Lions while everyone else is licking their wounds.
TIGHT ENDS
So, Ladarius Green played just 14 snaps on Thanksgiving, but his role has been said to be expanding this week and the Giants struggle against the TE. He’s the sneaky DFS/WW pick up play of the week ahead. He did have 67 yards on his 2 catches after all. Travis Kelce continued his strong second half playing a TE leading 77 snaps, catching 8 of his whopping 15 targets for 101 yards. Kelce may indeed be the #1 TE right now considering Rob Gronkowski’s health and Greg Olsen’s disappearance. With Jordan Reed’s health also in question, Vernon Davis (46 snaps, 5 catches for 68 yards) becomes a viable fantasy replacement for him yet again. Eric Ebron will bounce back after 0 catches and 1 target over 49 snaps last week. Don’t expect Josh Hill’s 6 for 6 and 74 yards performance to repeat itself as Drew Brees will always just find the open man. Tyler Eifert on the other hand will carry over his fine Week 12 work (66 snaps, 11 targets, 5 catches, 68 yards and a TD) while A.J. Green is on the shelf.
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Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the eight-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts On Target Fantasy weekdays at 12 noon est, The Fantasy Black Book Show Tues/Turs 8-10pm est & Sunday Game Day 8-11am on FNTSY Network Radio.
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