Breakouts do not come in the same sizes or forms, but with the season winding down it’s important to identify potential bargains in upcoming drafts. Miguel Sanó represents one of these profiles to file away for future profit. Yes, he’s been injury-riddled, flashed power upside previously and disappointed plenty of owners in the past. However, under the guidance of Nelson Cruz , Sano’s blossomed this year. He’s only appeared in 81 games for Minnesota with 26 home runs and 57 RBI in them.
On the season, he owns a 12.8 walk percentage and 35 percent strikeout rate, but this will be addressed later in the column. Sano also boasts a robust .332 isolated power this year, over 100 points higher than his career number. Keeping in mind the hitter-friendly environment of 2019, it’s still a notable increase. He’s reduced his swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone to 27.3 percent and slightly cut down on his swinging strike rate.
Of Sano’s 72 hits this year, 44 resulted in extra-base hits (17 doubles, one triple, 26 home runs) translating to a ridiculous 61.1 percentage of them. Since June 28th, there have also been positive changes in not only his approach, but in the overall numbers for Sano among his peers. Over 49 games in this span, Sano’s slashing .282/.387/.644 with 40 runs, 10 doubles, one triple, 17 home runs, 42 RBI and 29 walks. He’s cut his strikeout percentage to a more palatable 30.4 percent in this time frame with a 12.5 swinging strike percentage and 24.4 O-swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) percent. For a comparison, Max Muncy ’s swinging strike percentage sits at 11 percent with a 22.4 O-swing in this same sample.
As to Sano’s ranks since June 28th in the majors, they jump off the page:
Seventh in home runs (17)
Seventh in RBI (42)
Fifth in isolated power (.362)
13th in on-base plus slugging percentage (1.031)
Before dismissing this to a hot streak, Eugenio Suárez owns a lower walk percentage (9.4-percent) compared to Sano’s 14.2 percentage and a higher strikeout percent (32.1) since the 28th of June. Keep in mind, Sano will be drafted much later than Suarez in 2020. Similar to Max Muncy compared to Suarez in this year’s preseason drafts.
Shifting to Statcast, Sano again lights up the leaderboard due to his ability to generate hard hit baseballs. Sano’s recorded 175 batted ball events this year with 37 barrels for a 21.1 barrel percentage ranking third in the majors. He also owns an average exit velocity of 94.1 MPH, also ranking third in baseball to accompany a launch angle of 16.3 degrees. His hard-hit percentage of 57.1 percent on Statcast resides second only to Aaron Judge this year and Sano’s registered 100 batted ball events with an exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus.
Due to his slow running speed, Sano’s expected average will usually reside below his actual. But, checking out his zone profiles this year, he’s doing quite well in terms of staving off regression going forward:
One thing Sano will need to overcome, fighting off morphing into a pull heavy home run hitting machine. This worked against Matt Carpenter and others who sold out for power by exclusively pulling the ball. Sano will need to hit home runs to center and the opposite field to avoid being one dimensional. Using his recent breakout since June 28th, here’s his spray chart in the 49 games since:
Sano being pitched more on the outer half of the plate this year so driving the ball to all fields will be a template for future success. Not sure if he will take the path of Muncy as alluded to above, but owners will be wary of paying full retail for a Sano power surge in 2020 due to his name and disappointments in the past. However, savvy players will see his growth in plate discipline, massive upside in terms of home runs, even if baseball changes how they fly in 2020, within in Sano’s skill set. He’s yet to appear in more than 125 games in a season in the majors but remains on pace to his 32 home runs this year in only 364 at-bats. Projecting Sano’s power comes easy, predicting how many games he plays in proves tricky.
All of these factors should depress Sano’s draft stock in 2020. However, if he holds the improved plate discipline displayed his last 49 games with his increase in hard-hit rates and power, Sano will be an intriguing target next year. In fact, he will probably be available past pick 100 just like Khris Davis used to be and Max Muncy this season. Plus, he sits on the precipice of his power peak. Sano will not turn 27 until May of next year.
Flawed power hitters litter the landscape of present-day baseball, but Miguel Sanó could be on the verge of a massive breakout with improved discipline metrics and a strong team around him. It’s time to embrace Sano as a breakout candidate this year and make him a target for the next one. In fact, letting Eugenio Suárez drift by in the fifth or sixth round to get Sano as a corner infielder two to three rounds later makes total sense in 2020. Plan accordingly.
Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
MLB.com - Game Note