We’re now into conference tournament week of the 2025-26 college basketball season. Selection Sunday and the NCAA Tournament are right around the corner, but we have plenty of games this week to focus on first. Let’s dive into the college basketball best bets today for Thursday, March 12th. Check out the top college basketball picks below as you cash your own bets. Note that all odds and betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but are always subject to change. Good luck! 

College Basketball Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/12

Our college basketball best bets today begin with a Big East Tournament quarterfinal matchup between UConn and Xavier. Plus, we break down Nevada vs. Grand Canyon in the Mountain West bracket. Check out more college basketball predictions below for other top games today, including BYU vs. Houston in the Big 12 and NC State vs. Virginia in the ACC. Let’s jump in.  

 

 

 

Xavier vs. UConn Prediction: Thursday, 3/12

The last time we saw UConn in action, Dan Hurley’s squad suffered a surprising upset at Marquette last Saturday. The loss cost the Huskies a share of the Big East regular-season title, which went to St. John’s. They now face Xavier in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday night, and it’s an ideal time to back Hurley and Co. to win big. 

UConn has been literally unbeatable after a loss in recent years. It’s 3-0 after a loss this season, winning each by 10+ points. Plus, over the past 3 seasons, the Huskies are 11-0 in games following a loss to a Big East opponent. Hurley knows exactly how to get his team to respond after losing, and it’s usually in emphatic fashion. 

We should expect more of the same on Thursday in an easy matchup. Xavier upset Marquette, 89-87, in the first round of the conference tourney yesterday. Give the Musketeers credit for getting the win, but the result might say more about the Golden Eagles wrapping up a disappointing and down year. 

This is still a Xavier team that went 6-14 in conference play this year and 14-17 overall. It also lost 10 of 13 games to end the regular season. UConn faced the Musketeers twice and dominated both times. It was a 32-point win at home for the Huskies, and a 23-point margin on the road. They put up 90+ points in both meetings as well. 

UConn could easily go for 90+ points again in a comfortable win today. Xavier had the worst defensive efficiency in the Big East during conference play. The Musketeers also rank 289th nationally in effective field-goal percentage allowed, 222nd in three-point defense, and 305th in two-point defense. Struggling to defend both the paint and the perimeter is a problem against the Huskies, who can stretch the court and score efficiently from every level. 

Meanwhile, UConn’s elite defense can stifle Xavier’s inconsistent offensive attack. The Huskies’ defensive efficiency ranks 12th in the country. They routinely shut down the interior and defend the three at a high level, too. That’s key against the Musketeers, who are shooting a conference-best 36.7% from deep this year. 

Let’s back UConn to cover the spread in a big win. Multiple trends point to a comfortable victory here. The Huskies are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the Big East quarterfinals under Dan Hurley, while winning by an average of 19 PPG with 4 double-digit victories. Plus, double-digit favorites in the Big East quarterfinals are an impressive 13-3 ATS (81%) since 2006. Furthermore, teams favored by 10+ points are 13-5 ATS (72%) overall in this league’s tournament over the past 18 instances. 

Nevada vs. Grand Canyon Prediction: Thursday, 3/12

Let’s now head out to the Mountain West as Nevada takes on Grand Canyon in their conference tournament quarterfinals. These teams met once in the regular season, with Nevada eking out the home overtime victory. Grand Canyon will be poised to exact revenge in this rematch, and there’s some value on the Antelopes to get the victory. 

As noted, Nevada won the only regular-season meeting with Grand Canyon. However, the result deserves some context. The Antelopes held a 50-41 lead with about 5 minutes to go, but proceeded to score just 3 points during the rest of regulation. They still should’ve won the game, though, despite going cold. Nevada improbably got fouled on a three-point attempt as time expired, and promptly made all 3 foul shots to send it to overtime. 

Grand Canyon is coming off an impressive 13-7 conference record in its first year as a member of the Mountain West. The Antelopes notably went 4-0 against San Diego State and Boise State, and they even beat Utah State by 10 points at home. They’re live to make some noise in the conference tourney, and it begins today with a revenge game against Nevada. 

As for Nevada, it took care of Air Force yesterday with a 80-45 blowout victory. The margin of victory is certainly eye-opening, but it was against a lifeless opponent. Air Force went 0-20 in conference play this year and just 3-28 overall this season. The Wolfpack did what they were supposed to do, and now the competition ramps up. 

Grand Canyon boasts the best defense in the Mountain West this year, and it ranks 18th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Antelopes can lean on their stifling defense to limit Nevada’s scoring. The Wolfpack are dangerous from three-point range, shooting 36.5% from deep this season (41st in Division I). Yet, Grand Canyon has held opponents to 30.9% on threes during conference play. 

If the perimeter shots aren’t falling for Nevada, it could be a long day for the offense. Grand Canyon also ranks 13th nationally in defensive rebounding rate and 29th in two-point defense. The ‘Lopes can ride the defense to a victory, even if their own offense has been up-and-down as well. 

It’s also worth noting this interesting trend. Nevada has failed to win 2+ games in the Mountain West Tournament in all 6 previous seasons of Steve Alford’s tenure thus far. The Wolfpack simply haven’t been able to get over this hump once they face the upper tier of the league. Furthermore, Nevada hasn’t won back-to-back games in the conference tournament since 2017, when Eric Musselman was the coach. 

 

 

 

Best College Basketball Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/12

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