Time to take a look at some Monday-Thursday short-slate DFS.
As always, I encourage you to check out Ryan Hallam’s Weekly Previews to get a deeper look into tonight’s action. In the meantime, here’s a snapshot of each game. Take a read and go build some lineups – remember, I only play GPP tournaments for short slates – then come back and compare to the ones I am leaving here as examples. As always, these are meant to serve as a comparison tool for your own lineups. These aren’t to be taken and submitted into contests as your own.
Here's a breakdown of the two games involved:
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -3.5
O/U: 45
Defense Rankings:
Bengals: Run D – 28th Pass D – 24th
Steelers: Run D – 18th Pass D – 29th
Offensive Breakdown:
Passing:
It’s the first home start for Mason Rudolph and the match-up couldn’t be tastier. If the Bengals pass defense was any softer, I’d be putting in a request to use them as toilet paper. They’re giving up 237.7 passing yards per game, they’ve given up six touchdowns through the air and opposing quarterbacks have an aggregate 110.3 rating against them. Their coverage is weak across the board, from corners on the wideouts to the safety on the tight end to the outside pass-rushers on running back pass plays. If Rudolph can remain calm and widen his vision downfield, he could produce a strong effort.
For the Bengals, it’s Andy Dalton and catch-up mode. That’s the usual M.O. for the team as the offensive line is a mess and they continue to fall behind early and then have to sling the rock in order to get back into the game. Now that might now be a bad thing for fantasy as the Steelers pass defense, even with the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick , have been struggling in the secondary. Opposing quarterbacks have a 116.3 passer rating and they’ve allowed an average of 302 yards through the air thus far. If the Steelers jump out to an early lead, Dalton owners should be psyched. However, if Rudolph can’t take advantage of the match-up early, you could be in for a tight game with lots of rushing.
Rushing:
James Conner needs a statement game and he needs one now. Through three games, he’s averaging 11 carries for roughly 34 yards per game and that’s just not going to cut it for fantasy. Maybe if he was seeing seven or eight targets per game as well, it would be one thing, but he’s not. He needs to run like his job depends on it, which in a way, it does, but he really needs to dig in here against a defense that is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (168.7). If the team needs to take some of the pressure off Rudolph, then they need to feed Conner the ball.
On the other side, you’ve got Joe Mixon who will get as far as his offensive line lets him. The Steelers are allowing almost 140 yards per game on the ground, but if the Bengals fall behind, the run becomes less important, at least in the eyes of Zac Taylor. Last week was really the only time Taylor pushed more of Mixon on his opponents and while they lost, they kept it close and the game could have gone either way. Slowing it down with a run-heavy scheme, should be the strategy coming in.
Receiving:
As stated above, the Bengals struggle in coverage, so JuJu Smith-Schuster , James Washington and Diontae Johnson should have little trouble getting open. Again, it’s about Rudolph’s field of vision and if he can scan the field quickly and properly, he should find them. It doesn’t sound like he’s going to have a pass-catching TE with Vance McDonald dealing with a shoulder injury, so that safety/security won’t be there. That’s ok as the rest should be.
It’s all about Tyler Boyd . Yes, John Ross is a nice deep threat and Auden Tate has some decent hands, but Boyd needs to be the bread and butter for his QB. He’ll be matched up with Mike Hilton in coverage which grades out well for the receiver, so hopefully he and Dalton can hone in on the mismatch. Also look out for the Bengals tight ends. Pittsburgh ranks 29th against the position so Tyler Eifert or C.J. Uzomah could get into the box. Maybe both? Uzomah sees the majority of snaps, but Eifert has a 2:1 advantage in targets.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -1
O/U: 49
Defense Ranking:
Rams: Run D – 9th Pass – 5th
Seahawks: Run D – 6th Pass D – 17th
Offensive Breakdown:
Passing:
If you’re wondering which Russell Wilson you’re going to see this Thursday, it all depends on the ground game. Two weeks ago, when Chris Carson was fumbling his job away, Wilson stepped up and dominated on the field. This past Sunday, Carson held onto the ball and Wilson took a step to the side and was more of a game manager than a dominant QB. It wasn’t that he was bad, it’s that he just didn’t need to sling the rock as often and that doesn’t help you win a GPP.
Considering Jared Goff is coming off a career-high 517 yards and the Seahawks secondary has been a hot mess through three and a half games, this could be the QB you want. He sucks at reading defenses and that hinders some of the overall product, but if the Rams fall behind early, you’ve got the perfect situation for him to start throwing heavily.
Rushing:
Chris Carson not only rushed for 100 yards this past week, but he would have had a TD if not for a penalty calling it back and he held onto the ball every step of the way. Pete Carroll was true to his word and they leaned heavily on Carson and there seems little reason to change the game plan. The Bucs leaned on Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber and both got into the box. What’s telling you Carson won’t do it too?
The Rams ground game is a little more tepid. Todd Gurley got into the end zone twice but only amassed 16 yards. He did, however, have 11 targets he turned into seven catches for 54 yards and the Seahawks rank 26th against running back pass plays and have allowed 61.7 yards per game to them. Expect the Rams to try and lead with the running game and allow that to open up the play-action downfield. If they do, Gurley just might be productive both on the ground and through the air.
Receiving:
Seattle’s corners are improving somewhat, but the trio of Robert Woods , Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are next to impossible to contain. Seriously. It’s just a matter of figuring out which guy is going to pop off. Now against the Bucs, it was both Kupp and Woods. This week, I could easily see Cooks stepping back into the limelight but I don’t see Kupp ever not being targeted inside the red zone. Jamar Taylor had trouble with Larry Fitzgerald on Sunday so imagine what Kupp could do. And don’t sleep on Gerald Everett , people. He got into the box this past week and the Seahawks rank 18th against the position.
While the Rams cover corners, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib , have strong reputations, you saw the wheels fall off the wagon as the Bucs threw on them a lot more heavily than expected. Will Wilson do the same? Possibly. If he needs to. The Seahawks need a third to stand out as well to help force the safety to come off from helping Marcus Peters , so look for an increase in snaps for Jaron Brown if Seattle falls behind. Then with Tyler Lockett , D.K. Metcalf and even tight end Will Dissly , they can spread the coverage more and take advantage of the mismatches.