If you give a man a fish, he’ll eat for a day. If you teach a man to fish, he’ll eat for a lifetime.
We take this adage to heart when it comes to playing NFL DFS. The Fantasy Alarm Playbook isn’t just about handing you a list of players and a lineup to use each week. It is designed to help you learn to be a better DFS player. It’s about teaching you the process used in selecting which players to scout and, eventually, which ones to use.
Therefore, we will begin each week with the Weekly NFL DFS Watch List which is designed to keep tabs on marquee names, chalk plays and, of course, the weekly bargains who may not see the same coverage and exposure. This piece will be continuously updated throughout the week, based on the most recent news and injuries which means you may see a name or two removed as we get closer to kick-off. You may also see a few late-week additions who pique our interest for some reason too, and by the end of the week, this Watch List will eventually become your Playbook. Again, it’s about teaching you the process.
The first week of the season is always the most difficult. While you can look back at last season’s numbers and see which teams struggled the most against the pass or the run, that data may be outdated and, in some cases, irrelevant as coaches, player personnel and schemes change so often from year-to-year. A team that struggled mightily against the run last year, for example, may have added some help on the defensive line, thus fortifying their weakness. The same can be said about a weak secondary from 2018 which changed from zone to man-to-man coverage. We’ll still be able to use some of the data, but as we’ve seen before, it takes a few weeks before we spot some of the more noticeable trends.
**Please Note: I am staying away from the Thursday night game altogether for DFS. Week 1 is difficult enough without having to limit yourself with players locked in for Thursday's game. During the season, we will explore the Monday-Thursday slate, but for Week 1 DFS, this one is only going to complicate matters. If you feel the need to play in the Showdown format, we'll have a full game preview posted Wednesday.
PLAYERS ADDED (9/4):
Ezekiel Elliott , RB DAL
PLAYERS ADDED (9/5):
Nick Chubb , RB CLE, Mark Ingram , RB BAL, Michael Thomas , WR NO, Amari Cooper , WR DAL, Emmanuel Sanders , WR DEN, O.J. Howard , TE TB
PLAYERS REMOVED
THURSDAY NIGHT MATCH-UP
As a reminder, don't forget to check out the Game Preview of tonight's Green Bay vs Chicago game from Ryan Hallam
If you are playing the Showdown slate, which is probably a good number of you, here are the players I like the most:
Aaron Rodgers , QB GB -- Well duh. Even with the defection of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix , I feel like Rodgers can do some damage against the Bears when they fall into their Cover-2 scheme. The offensive line needs to hold against the pass rush, but a quick release from the gunslinging QB should help counter.
Davante Adams , WR GB -- Another well, duh, right? Adams should see a ton of Kyle Fuuller in this one and while Fuller grades out well as a cover guy, you can't ignore the 200-plus yards Adams put up on Chicago last season.
Geronimo Allison , WR GB -- The Bears ended up with Buster Skrine as their slot corner and if you've been a member of #FANation, you know how much I love to target against the former Jet. He's easily one of the worst corners in the game and Allison should post a strong effort working out of the slot now. Rodgers hasn't had a good slot receiver since the healthy days of Randall Cobb and those were really good times.
Mitchell Trubisky , QB CHI -- Hallam said it best in the previews when he speculated 250 yards and a pair of scores. Definitely possible. This should be a competitive game so I don't see Trubisky airing it out big, but he's cheaper than Rodgers and he should be stable.
David Montgomery , RB CHI -- This is where I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. The match-up isn't exactly ideal, but I've been such a huge fan of Montgomery and truly believe he is the back Matt Nagy wants on the field most often. I'm not going to set 100-yard expectations here, but a solid effort and atrip to the end zone are in-play.
Allen Robinson , WR CHI -- The veteran should see cornerback Kevin King most often and that's actually a favorable match-up for ARob here. Now at full health and a fair amount of time gone by from his initial knee injury, Robinson is looking to re-establish himself as one of the premier wideouts. He thrived with Blake Bortles back in the day, so I'm looking for a sound performance here in 2019.
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