Aaron Sanchez -- RHP – Toronto Blue Jays
Height: 6'4" Weight: 200 lbs. -- Hits: Right Throws: Right
2014 Stats (AAA) – 3-7, 3.95 ERA, 100.1 Innings, 84 K's, 1.45 WHIP
Scouting Report
Aaron Sanchez represents simultaneously the best and worst of MLB pitching prospects. On the plus side, he is a very solid athlete and has a strong upper body. Since being drafted in 2010 he has matured physically and in the process added 4-6 MPH to his fastball. That heater now registers in the 94-96 range on the regular and hits 97-99 when he pitches out of the bullpen. He throws two varieties of fastballs. His four seam fastball features cutting action that runs in to left handed hitters while his two seamer has run inside to right handed hitters. He throws with an effortless motion and disguises all of his offerings very well.
Sanchez’s curveball has 12-6 direction and features a sharp downward bite that induces a high amount of groundballs. Between 2013 & 2014 Sanchez had a 57% groundball rate and 2.34 GB/FB% in the minor leagues. He also throws a changeup that has the potential to be a high end pitch as well. As with his other offerings, the changeup has downward bite when right and induces plenty of groundouts.
The biggest issue with Aaron Sanchez is control and command of his repertoire. His 4.8 BB/9 rate was concern enough to force him to the bullpen even before joining the big league club in 2014. His off-speed pitches have great movement but if he cannot control them or show that he can get them over for strikes then they are simply ineffective. What’s more is that he tends to miss up in the zone which leads to many extra base hits including homeruns. Free passes and extra base hits are the curse of any would be big league prospect and Sanchez’s future rides on whether he can get both of these tendencies under control.
The Blue Jays elevated Sanchez to the big league bullpen where he made 24 appearances. He threw 33 innings of masterful ball. He was able to limit his walks to just nine while he struck out 27. His 1.09 ERA and 0.697 WHIP proved that Aaron Sanchez could indeed be a high end late inning reliever. Many think that Sanchez is the Blue Jays closer in waiting but the club is still going to explore him as a starter this spring.
2015 Analysis
One way or another Aaron Sanchez is going to make an impact in Toronto this season. How much of a fantasy impact he has comes down to whether or not the Blue Jays turn him into a reliever or stretch him out for the rotation. He has the body and arsenal to be a front of the rotation starter but has to be able to repeat his delivery and command all of his pitches. It would be a shame for him to stop throwing his breaking ball but if he is moved into the bullpen he will likely be told to just throw the fastball.
Because he has two distinct varieties of fastball that play well to both left and right handed hitters, he could close games as soon as opening day. The loss of Marcus Stroman however, creates a big hole in the Blue Jays rotation this year. They are going to explore all options of Sanchez in the rotation but it will all come down to whether or not he can throw strikes early in the count.
Sanchez is a real coachable kid that is a student of the game. He is a bit of a introvert personality wise but hasn’t had any problem with teammates or coaches on any level. His overall makeup suggests that he would be able to develop into a front line starter. Ideally that would entail another season in the minor leagues while working his control issues out and further developing his changeup. But the Blue Jays really believe that they are contenders in the AL East this season. The loss of Marcus Stroman and the ups & downs of guys like Drew Hutchison, Mark Buehrle & R.A. Dickey may force their hand on throwing Sanchez into the deep water of the big league rotation.
As a starter he would be nothing more than a late round upside play as a fifth or sixth starter. But if he winds up moving to the bullpen and making the Blue Jays out of spring training there is no doubt in my mind that he’ll be the full time closer by mid-late April. That is where Sanchez gains a ton of fantasy appeal and thus would be worth a mid round selection on draft day.
Compare To
Adam Wainwright – His makeup, repertoire and situation within the Blue Jays really remind me of a young Adam Wainwright. There is no telling whether he can evolve from a late innings reliever to a full blown perennial Cy Young candidate but the foundation is there.
Jonathan Papelbon – Minus the attitude, Sanchez and Papelbon have many of the same characteristics. Papelbon had trouble with locating his off-speed pitches also early on in his career but went on to be a two pitch masterful closer.
Current ADP
Currently Ranked as the 37th Relief Pitcher In The Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide
ADP of 251.96 Overall in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC)
Drafted in the 24th round (326th overall) in the 2015 F.S.T.A. Experts Draft