MINORS
Overall prospect in baseball...
2012: Baseball America (39), Baseball Prospectus (68), MLB.com (57)
Overall numbers: .259/.334/.381 with 37 HRs, 236 RBIs, 431 runs in 668 games
MAJORS
2012: .223-1-11-25-15 in 189 plate appearances
2013: .259-2-12-15-4 in 153 plate appearances
2014: .226-2-13-31-15 in 274 plate appearances
Traded by the Blue Jays to the Tigers for Devon Travis.
2015 START: .545 with a 1.455 OPS, three RBIs and four runs scored in two games.
REVIEW
So let me just be clear. Gose just isn't a good hitter. At all. He hit .259 in the minors. He's hit .240 in the majors. He has a league average 20.1 percent line drive rate for his career. He does have a slightly elevated .336 BABIP due to his speed, but since he's bereft of homers or extra base power it really doesn't matter. He also has a poor 0.27 BB/K ratio.
Gose has no power. In 563 career at-bats he has five homers with a .343 SLG and .103 Isolated Power. In 2014 the league average for SLG was .386 and the league average ISO mark was .135.
Gose has no run driving talent. That may be partly to do with where he hits in the order sure, but through 627 plate appearances he has a total of 39 RBIs.
Gose isn't a big runs scored guy. Sure he has 75 runs scored in 627 plate appearances, thanks to his speed, but with a .306 career OBP he's just not getting on base enough to be considered a lock for big time runs scored even if he plays every day (more on his playing time in a bit). Certainly will help if he can stick at the top of the Tigers order all year long.
So with Gose it's all about speed. It's the long skill he truly owns. He understands that too when you note that his GB/FB ratio is 2.64 for his career. He tries to hit the ball on the ground and run really fast. Gose does have 35 steals during his young career and he's got a couple of 70+ steal efforts during his minor league career. He has 30+ steal upside with playing time, no doubt.
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But what about that time in the lineup? Yoenis Cespedes will play every day in the outfield, as will J.D. Martinez. That leaves an open spot in the outfield with Gose sharing time with Rajai Davis. Both guys are, literally, the same guy. The expectation was that Davis would face lefties and Gose righties in a platoon. Makes a lot of sense too when you consider that over 951 career at-bats he's hit .304 with a .804 OPS. That's pretty dang good for a guy who is a career .270 hitters with a .697 OPS. Gose hasn't hit lefties at all with a .213 average and .529 OPS over 122 at-bats. Guys and gals, that's just awful.
And that's the issue with the hot start of Gose. (1) We're barely talking a handful of at-bats that we're hanging our hats on. It's been less than a week. (2) Gose doesn't hit lefties (he's not very good against righties either: .247/.320/.361). Even in the minors his bat just didn't shine. (3) Everyone always writes off Davis, but every year he ends up playing more than many anticipate, and he's the only player in baseball to have stolen at least 30 bases each of the last six years. Do the Tigers just turn away from that?
CONCLUSION
A best case scenario for Gose is likely 475 at-bats. He'll hope to hit .250 and steal 35 bases. By the way, Rajai Davis had 494 at-bats with a .282 average and 36 steals last season for the Tigers. Gose is extremely unlikely to go Billy Hamilton this season. He may not even be a good bet to go Rajai Davis this year. He might end up being Jordan Schafer like (.238 with 30 steals last season). Be wary of the expectation game with Gose.