Carl Crawford was a fantasy superstar. From 2004-07 his average fantasy season included a .304 batting average, 14 homers, 73 RBIs, 97 runs and 53 steals (read that again... wow). He hasn't been that type of player since he left Florida in 2010, and his star has fallen so far that he's now looked at as an all-so-ran by many. Is that fair? Does Crawford deserve to be lumped in with the others in the outfield that just aren't interesting, or is there some reason to be bullish about the outfielder in 2015?

THE MINORS

1999: Drafted in the 2nd round by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
2001: Ranked as the 72nd best prospect in baseball by Baseball America.
2002: Ranked as the 59th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America.
 
TOTALS: .296/.339/.402 with 17 HRs, 192 RBIs, 297 runs & 138 steals in 433 games 

THE MAJORS

He's been around forever, so I'm just going to list his 5x5 and at-bat stats for each of his career seasons.

2002: .259-2-30-23-9 in 259 at-bats

2003: .281-5-54-80-55 in 630 at-bats

2004: .296-11-55-104-59 in 626 at-bats

2005: .301-15-81-101-46 in 644 at-bats

2006: .305-18-77-89-58 in 653 at-bats

2007: .315-11-80-93-50 in 584 at-bats

2008: .273-8-57-69-25 in 443 at-bats

2009: .305-15-68-96-60 in 606 at-bats

2010: .307-19-90-110-47 in 600 at-bats

2011: Signed with the Red Sox and went .255-7-56-65-18 in 506 at-bats

2012: .282-3-19-23-5 in 117 at-bats

2013: Dealt to the Dodgers. .283-6-31-62-15 in 435 at-bats

2014: .300-8-46-58-23 in 343 at-bats
 


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THE SKILLS

Look, I get it. 

The last time Crawford had a huge season was 2010. 

He'll be 34 years old in August. 

He's failed to record 440 at-bats the last three seasons and 350 in two of the three years. 

There's a lot of warts here. Agreed. But let me drop a bit of knowledge that is sure to wake you up before you drift off reading this report.

Crawford hit .300 with 23 steals last season. How many players could match those numbers? A mere five: Jose Altuve, Ben Revere, Denard Span, Lorenzo Cain and Michael Brantley

That's something right?

'But Ray, Crawford isn't a .300 hitter.'

OK, true, but...

Crawford is a .292 hitter for his career.
Crawford has hit .289 the past three seasons.
Crawford has hit .290 the past six seasons. 
Crawford has hit .300 in three of his last six seasons.

Some more batting average love.

Crawford has a .328 career BABIP. 
The last three seasons Crawford's BABIP's have been .319, .321 & .335.

There's no chance he repeats that obnoxious 28 percent line drive rate from last season. It's also fair to note that 2014 was the only the second time in the last six years he's reached his career 20.2 percent mark, but it should also be mentioned that he did post a 23 percent line drive mark in 2013. 

Crawford has a career 0.36 BB/K ratio.
The last three seasons that mark is 0.33.

Crawford also does a good job hitting the ball on the ground, and as I note all the time, grounders go for hits more often than fly balls do. Crawford has a fly ball rate under 30.2 percent each of the past three years (league average is 34-35). Obviously that's not helping the homer total, but it helps the batting average.

BOTTOM LINE: Crawford is a much better batting average option that you think.

Does he have power? Nope. He's hit 17 homers in three seasons and he hasn't hit more than 11 homers in any of the last four seasons.

The Dodgers plan seems to be for Crawford to bat second for the Dodgers, an ideal spot in the batting order for the lefty (Jimmy Rollins is set to leadoff). If that is the case Crawford will not be posting an elite RBI mark in 2015. Hardly shocking. The last time he had 60 RBIs was 2010. It's never been his job to drive in runners.

Does he score runs? Yes he does. Hitting second in the order is obviously a great spot as well to do that. I know that Crawford hasn't scored more than 65 runs in four seasons, but he's been hurt a lot (more on that in a second). Per 162 games played the last four seasons Crawford has still averaged 87 runs scored a season. Do you know how many players scored 87 runs last season that played in the outfield? The answer is just 16 men.

So why are Crawford's numbers depressed? Crawford has appeared in 130 or less games in 4-straight seasons. He's failed to hit 117 games played in three years, and over the last three seasons he's averaged 84 games played per campaign. Can we trust Crawford to stay healthy even with the Dodgers willing to give him all the work he can handle? I'll be honest, no we can't. That's why his cost is depressed (the Mock Draft Army has the ADP for Crawford at 221). Still, if he could stay healthy...

Steals are still part of the game for Crawford. He's not running wild, there aren't any 40 steal seasons coming, a mark he's hit seven times, but he can still swipe a bag. Over the last two seasons he's stolen a total of 38 bases. If we prorate that pace over 130 games we would be looking at a total of 22 steals. That's a nice boost to a fantasy squad, even though it's obviously not a number to get excited about. The fact is he still runs enough that you should pay attention. 

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

With Matt Kemp now a Padres, the Dodgers have opened up a spot in the daily lineup for Crawford. The plan is for him to also be joined by rookie phenom Joc Pederson (Prospect Report) and Yasiel Puig in the starting lineup. Andre Ethier is around, for now, to lend a hand, but as long as Crawford is healthy he's got a spot in the daily lineup. 

CONCLUSION

Crawford is cheap and there's plenty to like about that. He also is stable in the batting average category, something that is increasingly difficult to say about so many players in the modern game. As noted, he also can still steal a base, and we know that brings value in the fantasy game. There's really only one category that matters with Crawford - games played. If Crawford is out there 130 times, something he hasn't done in three years, he will return a substantial profit for those that roster him. If he limps to 111 games played, his total the past two seasons, then he'll merely be a guy in the outfield. 

10 team lg: A decent option as your 5th outfielder, but you had better make sure you get a strong sixth outfield option because you have to be prepared for what looks like the inevitable - an injury. 

12 team lg: A strong option as a reserve pick, he could line up as your 5th outfielder to start the season and the Oracle wouldn't look cross-eyed at you. Same advice as 10-teamer though - make sure you got another outfield option you have confidence in.

15 team lg: Love Crawford as a 5th outfielder. A .290 hitter with 25 steals. Who doesn't want that? 

NL-only: The batting average of Crawford is a big booster in a single league. The steals are nice too. It's the cost that is the concern. You can't invest too heavily because if Carl gets hurt you won't have a strong option to fill the spot, and that makes Crawford very hard to roster at full price. There's so much risk with Crawford's health. A 3rd outfielder? Maybe. As a 4th... now we're talking.