Neil Walker isn't as sexy as Johnny Walker. Not even close. He's not a dynamic option. He's never stolen 10 bases and has a .273 career batting average. But what Neil Walker is should still be interesting to you in the fantasy game. He's consistently solid for the second base position, and if he could just stay healthy in 2015 we might be cooking with gas as they say.

THE MINORS

2004: Drafted in the first round (11th overall) by the Pirates. 
2005: The 81st best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America.
2006: The 43rd best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America.
2007: The 74th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America.
2008: The 61st best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. Ranked 94th by Baseball Prospectus.

TOTALS: .274/.324/.437 with 81 HRs, 434 RBIs, 425 runs, 55 SBs in 801 games

THE MAJORS

2009: In 17 games he hit .194 with no RBIs.

2010: Appeared in 110 games batting .296 with 12 homers and 66 RBIs. He finished 5th in NL Rookie of the Year voting. 

2011: Saw action in career-high 159 games batting .273 with 12 homers, 83 RBIs and 76 runs scored in his best overall season. Also stole nine bags.

2012: Dipped to 129 games played hitting .280 with 14 homers, 69 RBIs and 62 runs scored.

2013: In 133 games he hit 16 homers, drove in 53 and scored 62 times. Batting average slumped to .251.

2014: Rebounded hitting .271 as he reached a career best with 23 homers. Also drove in 76 runs and scored 74 times in 137 games.

THE SKILLS

Solid is as solid does. As the introduction suggested, Walker doesn't stand out in any appreciable way, but there's still plenty of reasons to like him.

(1) In 2014 do you know how many second base eligible players hit 23 homers with 76 RBIs and 74 runs scored? The answer is one - Walker (Brian Dozier was five RBIs short while Anthony Rendon was two homers short).

(2) Walker has hit at least 12 homers each of the past five years. How many have pulled off that trick while playing second base? The answer is two - Walker and Robinson Cano.

(3) How many second basemen have scored at least 62 runs the past four seasons? The answer is four - Walker, Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler.

(4) How many second baseman have driven in at least 53 runs each of the past five years? The answer is three - Walker, Cano and Howie Kendrick.

Like I've stated, nothing great, the numbers themselves don't stand out, but the consistency is desirable and hard to locate in the game of fantasy baseball. 

AVERAGE

Walker is a career .273 hitter. In this day and age of .250 league average type of stuff you can mentally adjust that number to .285 if you are thinking about a decade ago and be in the right area.

Walker doesn't walk much, his 8.3 BB-rate is blah, but he's also been consistent walking between 47 and 54 times the past four seasons.

Walker doesn't strike out a ton either. He's hit triple-digits twice, but the last two years he hasn't even reached 90 punchouts posting identical 15.4 percent K-rates each of the last two seasons.

Walker owns a .307 BABIP for his career. From 2010-12 that number was at least .315 each year. The last two seasons he hasn't hit .290. That is odd when we consider his line drive rates.

For his career Walker has a strong 22.5 percent line drive rate (20 percent is average). Not only does Walker have that career mark but he's been above that total each of the last three seasons (24.0, 23.0 and 22.6 percent). Basically he's been at 22.8 percent the last two years with a BABIP of about .281. Among  players who qualified for the batting title last year and had a line drive rate of 22.8 percent, do you know how many had a BABIP as low as .281? Here's the list.

24.6 and .242 : Chris Davis
24.5 and .276 : Aaron Hill
24.4 and .281 : Jed Lowrie

That's it.

Point being it's hard to consistently do what Walker has done the last two seasons. If that BABIP creeps back up, just to his career mark of .307, he could hit .280 as he did in 2012. The guy is a .273 career hitter after all so that's not really going out on much of a limb.


THE 2015 FANTASY ALARM BASEBALL DRAFT GUIDE... FOR FREE. IT INCLUDES DAILY UPDATED PLAYER RANKINGS FOR AL, NL AND MIXED LEAGUES. DO IT... AND DOMINATE. 


 

POWER

On the surface things sure look promising here. Check out Walker's homer totals the last five years.

12, 12, 14, 16 and 23

Is there yet another bump coming this season?

Here are Walker's GB/FB ratios the past four seasons.

1.26
1.26
1.00
0.99

Obviously the last two years he's ratcheted up the fly ball. Speaking of flies, here are his fly ball ratios the past four seasons.

34.9
33.7
38.5
38.9

Clearly he's lifted the ball a bit more the past couple of years, and when we're talking about a guy who hopes to reach a homer total in the teens a 4-5 percent increase is substantial. By the by, the league average is about 34-35 percent so it's not like he's converted himself into a fly ball monster which would damage the rest of his game.

Isolated power (SLG-AVG), which measures a players ability to generate extra base hits, also reflects and upswing in pop of late. His ISO number the last four seasons follows.

.134
.146
.167
.195

Let's add even more fuel to the fire. Check out his homer to fly ball ratio the last four seasons.

7.0
11.2
10.6 
13.9

He's lifting the ball more, doing more damage with those swings, and converting more fly balls into homers than at the start of his career. All great news.

Is there another level he can take his game to? That's unlikely. I would also have to think that his ISO and HR/F numbers last season will be very hard to repeat, which means in order for him to hit another 20 homers in 2015...

DURABILITY

Walker needs to play games. After appearing in 159 games in 2011 he's failed to hit 138 games the past three seasons while averaging 133 games a season. He's had issues with fingers, his hand, his rib cage and he had an appendectomy as well, but he's also had a habit of missing some time with a sore lower back. He's missed games in 2011, 2012 and 2014 with that back issue. I hear ongoing back soreness and don't get overly excited about a guys power game as a general rule. 

CONCLUSION

Walker is solid. He won't steal many bases, only three the last two seasons, but he's a very stable offensive performer. He will pop 15-20 homers, drive and score around 65 in a "normal" season (with the obvious potential for more), and he's a career .273 hitter. He doesn't stand out. He isn't likely to take a leap forward at 29 years of age either. In fact, his power numbers might dip a bit in 2015. Still, you can bank on the production with Walker and if he could stay healthy long enough to play 150 games, something he hasn't done in three seasons, then it's possible that he could produce a significant fantasy effort. 

10 team lg: Probably not a starter at second in this format but certainly a viable option as a middle infielder.

12 team lg: On the cusp of starter worthy if he plays 130 games. If he plays 150 he's certainly capable of a top-10 finish at the position. 

15 team lg: An ideal target in this format. He's not sexy so no one will be taking him early. In fact, he often falls on draft day. Howard Bender's Mock Draft Army has him going off the board with the 143rd overall pick, certainly a point where you don't have to worry about over-investing to acquire his services. 

NL-only: Stability is huge to the Ray Flowers brand. Walker, a bankable commodity, fits right into that mold. He's not a difference making player, but his consistent production allows you to take chances on others who have more potential outcomes to their game (up and down).