2015 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Jacob deGrom

Jacob deGrom came out of relative nowhere last season to star on the hill for the Mets. No one was talking about him. No one even knew his name. There were a plethora of arms in the Mets organization who were thought of more highly than the long haired one. But deGrom did it last year. He killed it actually, especially in the second half of the season. What type of follow up is in the cards for the righty this season?

THE MINORS

2010: Selected in the 9th round of the Entry Draft by the Mets. As a 22 year old Jacob made six starts in the Rookie League going 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over 26 innings.

2011: He didn't throw a pitch. He had Tommy John surgery. 

2012: Made 19 starts at Single and High-A ball. Went 9-3 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 111.1 innings. Struck out 96 batters while posting a 4.80 K/BB ratio. 

2013: Pitched at High-A, Double-A and Triple-A making 26 starts. Went 7-7 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 147.2 innings. Struck out 7.3 batters per nine with a 2.61 K/BB ratio.

2014: Made seven starts at Triple-A with success. Posted a 2.58 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 38.1 innings. He struck out 29 batters with a 2.90 K/BB ratio.

* Note that deGrom was never ranked as one of the top-100 prospects in baseball. In fact, he came in as just the 10th best Mets prospect in 2014 according to Baseball America. He wasn't on the list in 2013.

TOTALS: 21-11, 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP with a 7.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over 323.1 innings. 

THE MAJORS

2014:  Won the NL Rookie of the Year award after going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 mark an a 3.35 K/BB ratio over 140.1 innings. 

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THE SKILLS

deGrom killed it last season. He didn't pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, he threw 140.1 innings and you need 162, but if we compare his numbers to other elite hurlers, wowzahs.

Jacob deGrom: 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.2 K/9
Zack Greinke: 2.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.2 K/9
Cole Hamels: 2.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Madison Bumgarner: 2.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 

Hell of an effort. 

Can deGrom replicate it?

As I noted above, Jacob had never been thought of an an elite prospect. The converted shortstop wasn't even one of the Mets elite prospects until last season. Then there are his minor league numbers. They also don't say elite. To reiterate...

3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 over 58 starts

So scouts didn't think he was elite.
The production didn't suggest he was elite.
So how was he elite in 2014?

That last question is easy. He pitched like a boss. The follow up is what he will do for a follow up?

deGrom struck out more than a batter per inning with a 9.24 K/9 mark. Realize that is nearly two batters above his minor league mark. Can he hold on to that? The 11.7 swinging strike percentage he posted last season says yes, he can. Again though, that's a number we simply didn't see at the minor league level with deGrom. 

deGrom walked 2.76 batters per nine innings, a solid number. His minor league mark was 2.3. That's in the same ballpark. He dropped that mark to 2.02 in the second half. That's close to his minor league number, but borderline elite which makes me a bit nervous.

deGrom had a 1.44 GB/FB ratio. Over his last 52 minor league starts that mark was 1.36. Dead on here.

deGrom allowed an elevated 23.2 percent line drive rate. Despite that fact his BABIP was just .297. Those numbers don't figure to be repeated, at least not in tandem, in 2015. His minor league BABIP was .311, but both of those numbers are on the lowish end of what to expect with a line drive rate that high (his line drive rate was 18 percent in the minors). Speaking directly to batting average... his minor league mark was .258 over his last 52 starts. Somehow he dropped that mark down to .228 with the Mets. That's pretty dang low, and certainly not in line with that line drive rate of 23.2 percent.

So what changed in his arsenal? About the only thing that we can really turn to is to stay he learned how to utilize his offspeed pitches a bit better, especially his slider (which he threw 16.5 percent of the time) and curve ball (he threw it 9.9 percent of the time). At the same time, while that might be true, he was better than previously with those pitches, as this chart from Brooks Baseball shows, he had a tough time putting batters away with his slider so maybe the use of that pitch really doesn't explain his growth from last season after all. 

Speaking of those pitches, note how the curve ball also was hit pretty well. Shoot. Back to square one?

Well, one thing is for sure with his offspeed pitches. After really struggling to keep them out of the fat part of the zone at mid-season he simply stopped grooving the pitches in the second half of the season. Pretty stark change there really.

Still, hard to put a finger on "it." 

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

deGrom obviously will be in the rotation, zero doubt about it. The Mets do have a ton of options though behind him, so it's not a certainty how the club will break camp. Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler and deGrom are obviously in there. Behind them a medley of options: Bartolo Colon, Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee, Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero will round out the Mets' rotation. 

CONCLUSION

So I ask you to take off your fanboy hat, and honestly answer this question. Can a pretty woman become a Playmate overnight? With makeup, the right lighting, the right photographer the answer is yes... but is she really a Playmate or is that a visage a mirage? Back to deGrom. Can a solid prospect become a superstar overnight? Honestly think about that for a moment. NO ONE predicted deGrom to do what he did last season... no one. 

is deGrom really the next Zack Greinke? Look, scouts aren't always right. Organizations miss on prospects too. It happens. But how often does everyone totally bomb on a player? Delmon Young was the #1 prospect in baseball for multiple years and certainly hasn't lived up to that. And that's my biggest issues here with deGrom. If Jacob was Noah Syndergaard and did this I'd be a bit nervous but I would also know that everyone expects Noah to be an elite starter. But what if Jonathon Niese did what deGrom did? We would all expect regression. Be honest.

deGrom was so good last season that it strains credulity to think he can recapture all of that effort. He added two strikeouts to his K/9 rate, dropped his walk rate, dropped his batting average against and was so locked in during the second half that he could have been Clayton Kershaw. Seriously. Here are the numbers over his last 10 starts.

2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 9.72 K/9, 4.80 K/BB 

How many pitchers in baseball matched all four of those numbers last season? The answer is one - the aforementioned Clayton Kershaw. 

Set your sites with deGrom's first half numbers as the baseline (3.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.57 K/BB). Don't overestimate the great three months of pitching he closed out the 2014 season with. 

10 team lg: I'm taking deGrom as my 4th or 5th starter in this format. That means I'm unlikely to get him. I'm fine with that. 

12 team lg: I'm taking him as my... 4th or 5th starter in this format. That means I'm unlikely to get him. I'm fine with that. 

15 team lg: I'm taking him as my... 4th or 5th starter in this format. That means I'm unlikely to get him. I'm fine with that. Am I being redundant here? The fact is that I have a hard time believing that deGrom's 2015 outlook is appreciably better than a whole host of other arms that draft data suggests are being taken around here. According to Howard Bender's Mock Draft Army deGrom has an ADP of 120.4. Is he better a better option than Tyson Ross (124.4), Gio Gonzalez (133.4), Zack Wheeler (135.1) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (143.0) to name just a few? I would take all four of those arms before I called out deGrom's name, hence the reason that deGrom wouldn't be a target of mine, even in a league this size.

NL-only: You don't want to chase numbers. I get the feeling that, in many leagues, you will have to call out deGrom's name at a cost that expects a near repeat of last season. Given that we don't have the pedigree of an elite prospect, and that we have a guy who didn't even throw 150-innings last season, I'm confident in stating a repeat of last year is unlikely. Therefore, if I have to pay at that level to attain his services, I won't be calling out his name. I like more certainty in a league that's this deep. It's not like you can go to the barren waiver-wire and replace deGrom with a power arm if he regresses.