Mookie Betts will be a superstar this year. I'm one to make out-of-the-box claims, but did you see the Bill James Handbook prediction for what 2015 will bring? Oh, nothing other than a .321 batting average, 15 homers, 40 steals an a .405 OBP. That's laughable. He won't reach one of those marks in 2015 - well maybe the homers, but still it's a bit o' a stretch. Let me explain to you why.

 

THE MINORS

Betts stands 5'9" and weighs 155 lbs. He turned 22 in October.

People seem to be operating under the assumption that Betts has always been viewed as an elite prospect. Not true. Drafted in the 5th round in 2011, he wasn't listed among the top-100 prospects in baseball in 2012 or 2013. It wasn't until 2014 that he appeared on the lists of Baseball America (75th) and MLB.com (62nd). Moreover, he wasn't a top-10 Red Sox prospect in 2012 according to Baseball America. He wasn't a top-10 Red Sox prospect in 2013 either. He finally snuck into the top-10 in 2014 at number seven.

2011: As an 18 year old rookie he appeared in one game at Rookie Ball.

2012: At Low-A ball he hit .267 with no homers and 20 steals over 71 games. He posted a .658 OPS as well.

2013: Appearing at Single-A and High-A ball Markus hit .314 with a .417 OBP and .506 SLG. He socked 15 homers, stole 38 bases and scored 93 runs in a mere 127 games.

2014: Spent 99 games at Double and Triple-A. Was even better than in 2013 as he batted .346 with a .431 OBP and .529 SLG. He hit 11 homers and stole 33 bases in 99 scintillating games.

TOTALS: .315/.408/.470 with 26 homers, 92 steals and 214 runs scored in 298 games. 


THE MAJORS

2014: In 52 games, covering 213 plate appearances, Betts hit .291 with five homers, seven steals, 18 RBIs  and 34 runs scored. His slash line was impressive for a rookie: .291/.368/.444.


THE SKILLS

Betts was looked at as a strong athlete, with borderline elite speed and strong plate discipline when he was signed. Questions about which position he would play - second base is his main spot - and size dogged him though (155 lbs soaking wet is he). Since 2013 he's blew past every hurdle placed in his way putting to rest some of those concerns. Let's take a look at the package he brings.

Betts walked 174 times in 298 minor league games. I like that.
Betts struck out just 137 times in 298 minor league games. I love that.
Betts has a 1.27 BB/K ratio in 298 minor league games. That's o u t s t a n d i n g.

The average major league contact rate last season was 0.78 [(determined by (AB-K)/AB)]. For his minor league career Betts posted a mark of 0.88. Studies show that a mark that high usually has a floor of about a .275 batting average. It's a great sign for those that endeavor to hit .300 by the way. As a big leaguer last season the mark was 0.84, a still impressive mark. This approach, which is exceedingly rare for a player so young, is one of the biggest reasons that anyone should be supportive of Betts and his 2015 outlook. He understands the strikeout zone, stays within himself, and positive results usually follow.

The ability to show patience also benefits Betts ability to get on base, and to rack up runs. To this end, he'll likely scored runs at a pretty solid clip. The key for his runs scored mark will be where he hits in the order. Recall that every spot you drop in the batting order you lose 15-20 plate appearances over the course of a season. If he hits at the top of the order that will be a huge boost to his value.

As for the batted ball stuff... Betts had a 1.05 GB/FB ratio last season with a 21 percent line drive mark. His line was pretty much league average type of stuff. I'd like to see a few more grounders and for him to cut his fly ball rate a bit which was 38 percent in 2014 (the league average was 34 percent last season). Betts has some decent pop, but at his size he's better served hitting balls on the ground and off the Green Monster instead of trying to drive the ball deep (his minor league mark was about 29 percent). Betts posted an eight percent HR/F rate last year with the Red Sox after hitting the nine percent mark in the minors. The big league average is 9-10 percent. Given the overall skills here one would think 15 homers is possible - going back to the early James projections - but he should be looked at as a 10-15 homer bat and not a 15-20 homer option.

As a runner, Betts stole 92 bases while being caught only 15 times in the minors, an impressive 86 percent success rate. In the bigs he was successful on seven of 10 attempts. Not only did his success rate go down  - noting the small sample size of course - but his rate went down (as a Red Sox he posted a steal every 7.4 games after a mark of 3.2 in the minors). Betts will run, but given his relative youth, and the fact that the Red Sox don't push things on the base paths as much as others, 20 steals, not 40, should be what you're thinking. That way if he steals 30 you're happy versus being disappointed.

A final note. He appeared in 14 games at second base last year. If your league uses 20 games as the requirement to appear at a position he will only qualify as an outfielder in 2015, and that dings his value substantially.

 
PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

It appears that the Red Sox will enter the 2015 season with the following lineup in the outfield: Hanley Ramirez in left, Rusney Castillo in center and Betts in right. Is that the way it will end up? Honestly, even the Red Sox don't know. Look at the cast of characters they currently have in the stable: Ramirez, Castillo, Betts, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino, Jackie Bradley and Brock Holt.  A trade or two has to be on the horizon, doesn't it? Everyone assumes that Betts will play, and start daily. I'm not so sure. Neither should you be. Hard to envision Craig and Victorino, two very solid performers when healthy, continually sitting on the bench with combined $18.5 million in salary. If Betts stumbles it's not like the Sox don't have options to turn to.
 

CONCLUSION

Fifty-two games at the big league level is nothing, and it's exceedingly difficult to pull anything of value from  such a small sample size. What can be said is that Betts flashed borderline elite plate control, his contact rate was also impressive, and he used his speed to get on base, score runs and steal a few bags. Moving from that effort to outright fantasy stardom in 2015 though? I'm not buying a ticket on that train. Betts will be successful, his approach dictates it will be so, but expectations are so high (and climbing) that a "successful" season will have to result in all-star caliber numbers or heaping helpings of folks will be disappointed. The expectation game needs to be managed. Given the cost of Betts, it will be high, you might be better off looking into fellas like Desmond Jennings or Leonys Martin who will be way cheaper to acquire.

10 team lg: Hard for me to envision Betts being on my team in a league this shallow. I would rather take a shot on a guy like Alex Rios or Brett Gardner. Are you really comfortable leaning on Betts when we're not completely sure how many at-bats he will receive this season?

12 team lg: No second base eligibility really hurts Betts. If we was able to play the infield I would obviously be much more bullish on his services. As it stands, he's a 4/5 outfielder in this setup. Hype will likely cause him to be drafted as a 3/4 or maybe even higher in some crazy setups.

15 team lg: Any guy with power/speed upside, who also understands the strike zone, is worthy of a long look in this format. As always, the deeper the format the more risk taking becomes a necessity. You still don't want to be drafting Betts with the expectation he will be a difference maker. The odds of that happening, if we're being completely honest, are lower than 50/50. You can't make up for a swing and miss on waivers in a league this deep, or at least it's exceedingly difficult to do so. Roster Betts at a level commiserate with an honest assessment of his value and you'll be fine. Reach and you may not be too happy in six months.

AL-only: Have at it here. Betts, if he gives 80 percent of the Bill James projections, is going to give all kinds of value. It really comes down to cost. I don't want to pay an elite price for a guy with less than 200 big league at-bats who doesn't have a totally clear path to playing time. Others will be fine with building around him, but I just don't think that's the smart move.