A victim of his own hype, Bryce Harper has had a promising start to his big league career, albeit below the otherworldly expectations that were placed upon him. Check out the rankings he garnered before ever appearing in a big league game.

2011: #1 Baseball America, #1 Baseball Prospects
2012: #1 Baseball America, #2 Baseball Prospects, #2 MLB.com

That's of all the prospects in baseball.

Compared favorably to guys like Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez - as a 17 year old - it's been impossibly tough sledding for Harper to this point. Feels like 2015 might be a good time to jump back on the bandwagon if you jumped off as he's likely to be at his most affordable on draft day, 2015.

THE MINORS

2011: As an 18 year old he appeared in 109 games at Single and Double-A. He hit 17 homers and stole 26 bags in that time. Check out the sparkling slash line: .297/.392/.501.

2012: He saw action in 21 games at Triple-A posting a .690 OPS over 84 plate appearances

2013: Four games an a 1.409 OPS.

2014: Five games an a 2.308 OPS

TOTALS: In a mere 139 minor league games Harper has hit 23 homers, stolen 29 bases and posted an all-star level slash line of .300/.397/.521.

THE MAJORS

2012: As a 19 year old he saw action in 139 games hitting 22 homers with 18 steals exciting the baseball universe. The slash line was impressive for a player of his age: .270/.340/.817.

2013: As a 20 year old  he appeared in 118 games hitting 20 homers while stealing 11 bases. His slash line improved to .274/.368/.486. He missed nearly 40 days with bursitis in his left knee.

2014: As a 21 year old he appeared in 100 games hitting 13 homers with two steals. His slash line regressed to .273/.344/.423. He had surgery on his left thumb and missed two months of action. 

THE BIRTH CERTIFICATE
 
Harper is 22 years old (his birthday is October 16th). Here are the ages of some of crop of rookies who will be vying for significant playing time this year.

Mark Appel - 23 years old (24 in July) 
Archie Bradley - 22 years old (23 in August)
Kris Bryant - 23 years old (24 in January of 2016)
Francisco Lindor -  21 years old (22 in November)
Henry Owens - 22 years old (23 in July)
Joc Pederson - 22 years old (23 in April)
Carlos Rodon -  22 years old (23 in December)
Aaron Sanchez - 22 years old (23 in July)
Yasmany Tomas - 24 years old (25 in November) 

I assume you get the point, right?

Harper has 357 big league games and 139 minor league games under his belt and he's barely 22 years old. By the end of the season, if he plays 143 games, he will have 500 games played before his 23rd birthday. Since 1900 only 18 players have appeared in 500 games before their 23rd birthday. 

THE SKILLS

Among players with 1,400 plate appearances the last three years...

Harper is 38th in baseball in OBP with a .351 mark.
Harper is 33rd with a .465 SLG.
Harper has a homer rate of 3.69 per 100 plate appearances, the 44th best mark in baseball.

Remember, this is at the ages of 20-22.

An that's the real issue here. People EXPECTED greatness from Harper from Day 1. No quarter would be given to him if he struggled. He was supposed to be one of the best players in baseball from the first day he stepped on a big league diamond. He went out and hit 22 homers with 18 steals as a rookie and people were somewhat dissatisfied in some circles. Life ain't fair, but that's rough. His last two seasons have been filled with arrogance and his off putting personality, which when coupled with an average of just 109 games played, has caused many to forget the immense talent he still possess, and for the 903rd time, he's at an age where many players still haven't seen a big league pitch.

As noted, Harper owns a .351 career OBP. Let's put that in context. Since 2012 that number is better than the following players: 

.350 Justin Upton
.350 Josh Donaldson
.349 Alex Gordon
.336 Carlos Gomez
.330 Hunter Pence
.321 Adam Jones

Harper owns a .465 career SLG. Put that in context. Since 2012 that number is better than the following players: 

.464 Yoenis Cespedes
.462 Justin Upton
.459 Jay Bruce
.451 Hunter Pence
.437 Michael Brantley
.430 Shin-Soo Choo

Starting to see what I'm talking about with Harper being unfairly judged?

Point by point.

Harper has a career .272 batting average. Not great, but in an era when the league average is about .020 points lower than that, it's certainly not a negative. Harper also owns a 21.5 percent line drive rate and .319 BABIP which certainly suggest that he has room to grow as an average producer.

Harper has hit 55 homers in 1,309 at-bats, a pace of 21 homers over 500 at-bats and 25 over 600 at-bats. Remember the player's Harper was compared to above? As a 22 year old Ken Griffey Jr. hit 27 homers over 565 at-bats. ARod hit 42 homers as a 22 year old in 1998, but consider this: from 1994-1997 ARod hit 64 homers over 1,384 at-bats. Remember that Harper has 55 homers in his first 1,309 at-bats which is a  #NearlySimilarPace. 

One thing that has held back Harper a bit is his fly ball rate. To this point that mark is 33.5 percent, about a percentage point below the league average. He owns an impressive 16.6 HR/F ratio, especially for a player his age, and if he were to maintain that level while increasing his fly ball ratio by lets say five percent we'd be looking at a 25-30 homer season with relative ease. As I've noted elsewhere, players often learn to lift the ball a bit more as they age. It would also be helpful if Harper could avoid the bumps and bruises that seemingly shelve him on a regular basis. Finding that groove with your swing is so key.

Two final concerns.

First off, Harper posted a mediocre 0.47 BB/K ratio as a rookie (the league average is about 0.40). That mark rose to 0.65 as as second year player before caving to 0.37 in his third season as his strikeouts rose to a career worst level. A young player - running theme - Harper is still learning to control the strike zone. If he could (A) gain a bit more patience or (B) make a bit better contact then we would be cooking with gas.

Finally, Harper has 13 steals the past two seasons after swiping 18 as a rookie. Moreover, he's attempted 19 steals the past two years after running 24 times as a rookie. Blame health. He's still so young - for the 23rd time - that his body should be more than capable of handling 25 steal attempts in 2015. The key is maintaining health, especially with his lower half. The team might ask Harper to curtail his running a bit to keep him on the field, so expecting him to be in the 10-15 steal range is a much safer play than hoping for that first 20/20 effort that he is fully capable of producing. 

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

Harper will play every day his body allows him. Through three seasons that has meant an average of just 119 games played. He plays hard, sometimes too hard, flinging his body all over the field with reckless abandon. He has no chronic issues to deal with which is a positive, as would be an understanding that going 100 percent when 90 percent will get the job done might be advisable. Until he's done it you can't say he can do it with certainty, but there's no significant reason to believe he won't set a career-high in games played in 2015.

CONCLUSION

Harper is 22 years old and still possesses generational type talent. There are questions about his ability to play 150 games, and his attitude can be an issue, but you should never for one moment question his talent.  Expecting a career best homer total and run producing marks seem like a good place to start with Harper - if you believe he'll be able to stay on the field. Given the disappointed faces of nearly everyone who rostered him the past two seasons Harper might end up falling a wee bit further than he should in some fantasy baseball leagues this campaign.

10 team lg: Don't overpay here. While the talent is immense, Harper hasn't come close to matching expectations the past two years, and until he does there's still an air of talent versus production going on here. With established players being so plentiful, it would be wise to avoid reaching to roster Harper. 

12 team lg: If he's my third outfielder in a five outfielder league, I would be ecstatic. Not likely to happen of course. If he's my second outfielder, boy am I a happy kid. If he's my first outfielder... that's too rich for my blood.

15 team lg: Speculating in this size league is well worth doing with Harper. Given the uncertainty it's difficult recommend going all-in with a second round selection or $30 bid, but having him be one of the building blocks of your club still has merit.

NL-only: You don't want to pay whatever it takes to get his services, but given prices approaching or even surpassing $30 the past few years, he'll come at a discount in 2015. If that number falls by let's say 30 percent, you should be all over Harper.