Nolan Arenado is a solid hitter with the pedigree to match. He also plays his home games at Coors Field and is coming off a very successful 2014 despite having to deal with injury. He'll likely be regarded as a top-10 option at third base by the industry so he's a solid get on draft day. Is he worthy of targeting at the draft table or is he merely a solid option to be happy with if he ends up manning the hot corner for your club?

THE MINORS

A second round selection in 2009 Arenado, ranked as high as the 22nd best prospect in baseball according to MLB.com and 20th according to the folks at BaseballProsepectus, flew the minors with tons of success. 

2009: As an 18 year old he hit. 300 with two homers over 203 at-bats in the Rookie league.

2010: In 92 games he hit .308 with a .858 OPS over 92 games at Asheville of the Sally League (Single-A).

2011: Spent the season, 134 games worth, at High-A ball on his way to a monster season. Nolan hit .298 with 20 homers and his 122 RBIs led all minor leaguers.

2012: As a 21 year old he spent the season at Double-A batting .285 with 12 homers and 56 RBIs in 124 games. For the third straight year he hit at least 32 doubles finishing with 36.

2013: Had 66 at-bats with a 1.059 OPS at Triple-A.

2014: Had 20 at-bats with a .350 batting average at Triple-A.

TOTALS: .300/.345/.473 with 49 homers and 289 RBIs over 1,876 plate appearances spread across 437 games.

THE MAJORS

2013: Appeared in 133 games as a rookie and had a solid if less than noteworthy season. Arenado hit .267 with a .301 OBP and .405 SLG. He socked 10 homers and drove in 52 runs while scoring 49 times for the Rockies. 

2014: Improved in year two despite less work (a fractured left middle finger limited him to just 111 games played). Arenado hit .287 with a .328 OBP and .500 SLG. He also hit 18 homers with 61 RBIs and 58 runs scored.

THE SKILLS

Arenado turns 24 on April 16th. It's important to remember that fact. He's still at an age where refinement/growth could certainly come. One area in which that is possible is in the power department. Let's start there since it's the main area of concern with the righty.

In 437 minor league games Arenado hit 49 homers which is pace of about 17 homers over 150 games. Not bad, but not exactly exciting either. In 244 big league games he's hit 28 homers for a pace of about 17 homers over 150 games. Behind the curtain we go.

(1) Players often develop the ability to lift the ball as they age. They learn to leverage counts, to understand what pitchers are trying to do to them, to recognize offerings and they develop the ability to let some shaft out when the count is in their favor. Natural growth suggests that Arenado could hit 20 homers in 2015.

(2) He plays at Coors Field and that kinda helps. Duh. More on that below.

Now the bad.

(3) Though he plays at Coors he hit a total of two homers in 201 at-bats on the road last season. For his career he's hit seven homers in 445 at-bats on the road versus 21 at home in 473 at-bats. That's a significant concern with Arenado hitting 20+ homers in 2015. 

(4) During his minor league days he had a fly ball rate of 35 percent. The big league average last season was 35 percent. Last season he posted a 42 percent fly ball rate after a rookie mark of 34 percent. Was he trying to lift the ball more last season or did he simply see a one year jump in the number? We need more data unfortunately, but it should be noted that the only time in his minor league career in which his fly ball rate was over 37 percent was during his five game run at Colorado Springs last year. A final note. His fly ball rate was, oddly, a bit higher on the road in 2014 (44 to 40 percent). 

(5) Assuming Nolan's more of a league average fly ball type than big time fly ball hitter he will need two things to occur in order for him to hit 20 homers in 2015. (A) Nolan will need to stay healthy and play a full slate of games. (B) He will need to post a solid HR/F ratio. That might be an issue. During his minor league career his HR/F ratio was just a couple ticks under 10 percent. What's the big league average? Roughly 10 percent every year. What's Arenado's career mark in the bigs through two seasons? Try 9.4 percent. He did push the mark up to 11.4 percent last season, but it doesn't appear that he's yet taken that next step with his stroke. As should be obvious by this point all his power success has been at home anyway. Through two seasons he has a 13.2 percent HR/F ratio at home versus a piddly 5.0 on the road.


A .300 hitter in the minors, Arenado hit .267 as a rookie before boosting that mark to .287 in his second season. With his pedigree we know that last years effort was legit. It should also be noted that his 22.3 percent line drive rate through two seasons supports that .287 mark and suggests more could be coming. There's also this. He never strikes out with 130 punchouts in two seasons. As a result of putting the ball in play Arenado had a contact rate of 87 percent last season. When that mark is over 85 percent a batter has an exponentially better chance to hit .300 than when it's below. The big league average was about 78 percent last season by the way.  

Two negatives.

(1) Arenado never walks. He accepted 23 walks as a rookie and just 25 as a sophomore. The result is a below league average .314 OBP through two campaigns. With his current approach slumps will occur and a true "breakout" season is unlikely. He simply hasn't realized that just because he can hit everything doesn't mean he should. The lack of patience and walks will make it difficult, not impossible though, to hit .300+. It will also keep his OBP  around the league average which could hinder him from producing a big runs scored mark. 

(2) As should be obvious by this point, Arenado hasn't figured out how to hit away from Coors Field. Not only is he bereft of the ability to hit the ball into the seats on the road, he's also been unable to produce hits on the road. Here are his career splits. Note - he has a mere 18 more at-bats at home than on the road.

Home: .300/.339/.520 with 21 homers, 79 RBIs & 48 strikeouts
Road: .252/.287/.375 with seven homers, 34 RBIs & 82 strikeouts

It should be obvious but let me state it anyway. If you are rostering Arenado you're likely getting an all-star at home and a below replacement level bat on the road. I mean, the guys road OBP is lower than his home batting average. In DFS you never want to play Arenado on the road, and those of you playing roto should at least consider sitting him in tough matchups away from Coors, especially when there's a top shelf righty on the hill since he's hit a mere .267 with a .711 OPS in 671 at-bats against righties in his young career.

CONCLUSION

Could Arenado hit 20 homers in 2015? He could, but it's far from certain. Could he hit .300? He certainly could. Playing at Coors Field gives him a huge edge on the competition, but even if you roster this rising star it would be wise to roster another third sacker that you could play at third base, at least part of the time in tough matchups, and against righties, when Arenado is on the road. 

10 team lg: His lack of pop relegates him to the status of being a solid add in this format, nothing more. He needs to be paired with an unexpected source of power up the middle to reach his full value.

12 team lg: If he's my third basemen in this format I'm feeling solid about my club. Could be an all-star caliber performer this year, albeit with less than ideal pop.

15 team lg: The deeper the league the less important an overwhelming power season is needed. If he plays 150 games at last years levels, shows no growth, we're talking about a .287 hitter with 82 RBIs. I'll take that. 

NL-only: A strong add. He'll play daily, should produce a good deal of runs, and any player with a legit shot to hit .300 in this format is worthy of adding to your squad.


The Fantasy Alarm site will be down for +/- 12 hours beginning Tuesday night at midnight and be back better than ever on Wednesday. We'll have a new look, a new feel, and a better than ever user experience. We apologize for this momentary hiccup, but we wanted to get the system in tip-top shape as we're on the brink of helping you to crush the competition in 2015.