Who should you avoid in your fantasy baseball drafts in 2014? Which players are sleepers that you might consider targeting given their below market draft day cost? In this series we'll take a look at each position and give you some names to avoid and some to target.

FIRST BASE

* ADP's taken from the NFBC.

OVERVALUED

Chris Davis (8 ADP): The 2014 Fantasy Draft Guide has an article on Davis that is four pages of information telling you why Davis is being overvalued in 2014 despite his stupendous 2013. You can find a little teaser in Last Year Bias: Why Does 2013 Matter So Much?

2669.gifAlbert Pujols (42): For a decade Pujols was the best hitter in baseball. He's going to the Hall of Fame. I get it. But let's face facts. He last hit .300 in 2010. He was limited to only 99 games last year because of foot issues. He's 34 years old (we think). And then there is this. Pujols' batting average has gone down 5-straight seasons. Pujols' OBP has gone down 5-straight seasons. Pujols' SLG has gone down 4-straight seasons. Don't know how you ignore that.

Jose Abreu (92): Everyone, as I always say, loves the shiny new toy. That's what Abreu is. He comes with massive promise and insane minor league numbers in Cuba, but that doesn't mean he will be a top-100 player in 2014. For more on Abreu see his Player Profile.

UNDERVALUED

3217.gifJustin Morneau (206): He's not going to go .321 with 34 homers and 130 RBIs as he did in 2006. That's just not who he is anymore. The positive news is that after two seasons crushed by a concussion he's been able to rack up 505 and 572 at-bats the past two seasons. He moves to Colorado which should play well to his style. Not jacking the ball into the seats mind you, but blasting liners all over the field. Morneau is a threat to reach 20 homers, something he hasn't done since 2009, but he should be looked at as a solid play to improve upon the 77 runs batted in he's had the last two seasons while a batting average above his career mark of .277 is possible.

5151.gifNick Swisher (211): He's boring. He's also very reliable, and when you're into the 200's at the draft, stability isn't a bad thing to be looking at. Swisher has hit at least 21 homers every season he's had more than 60 at-bats, and that leaves him with a stretch of 9-straight 21 home run efforts. The only other men who can match that streak are Miguel Cabrera and David Ortiz. That's pretty solid company for Swisher who has also scored at least 74 runs with 63 RBIs in each of the past eight seasons. Oh yeah, he also qualifies in the outfield after appearing there 27 times in 2013.

3272.gifAdam LaRoche (271): For the 8th straight full season LaRoche hit 20 homers in 2013 (he only had 43 games played and 151 at-bats in 2011). He's also recorded at least 70 runs in each of his last four full seasons. LaRoche did struggle last season, he hit a mere .237 and drove in only 62 runs after 7-straight full seasons of at least 78 RBIs. On the plus side he's super cheap, he's coming off the best walk rate of his career (12.2 percent), and his batted ball rates last season (22% line drive, 37% ground ball and 41 percent fly ball) are nearly identical to his career marks (21/38/41). He's a reserve round selection who could return plenty of value in 2014.

Get All of Ray's Picks in the 2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.




Comments

Leif 

Hey Ray! Got the draft guide. Great work! Keeper league 12 team H2H (I know...lol) points league. You can keep 10 but sacrifice a round in the draft for each one. I am hearing most teams are keeping all 10. I have Kipnis, Longoria, Wright, Bruce, Greinke, Marte, McCann, Rizzo, Samardjzia, Cashner, Ryan Zimmerman...thoughts? Pitching is weighted a little heavier in this league it seems.

brad 

why does the piece of shit app not work

Ray Flowers 

Brian - Thanks for your continued support through the years. Really appreciate that. Your addition of The Guide puts you in great position to be ready to rock for 2014. Keepers 1 Belt 2 Machado 3 Salazar 4 Bailey All can be extended too.

Ray Flowers 

Gordon - Kinsler is solid, though if you read my 2nd base profile you will know I'm not overly excited. Holliday is never wrong. Extremely stable. Heyward might be the most talented, but performance is up and down. I would go Holliday since you don't have an OF.

Gordon 

Hey Ray. Keeper league 12 team 6x6 Roto keep 5 reset every year no money values- Jose Fernandez, Felix Hernandez, Paul Goldschmidt, Troy Tulowitzki and? Matt Holiday, Ian Kinsler, Jason Heyward, Billy Hamilton? I am sure it is no to Hamilton and I am leaning towards Kinsler. Thoughts? Thanks in advance.

Brian 

Ray, Third year with the draft guide. Really appreciate the work that goes into this! Convinced the league to use SOLDS this year instead of Saves. How do you recommend preparing to draft for this? Also, I need help with choosing 4 more keepers? Already have Scherzer locked in $19. 12 Team 9x9 roto mixed. Can sign players to multi year deals. Batters: Hosmer ($16), Belt ($7), Venable ($6), Brad Miller ($6), Dozier ($6), Machado ($11) Pitchers: Salazar ($6), Griffin ($6), Bailey ($11), GCole ($14), ACobb ($17)


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About Ray Flowers

The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: Mon-Thurs 7 PM, Fri. 9 PM EDT), Ray also hosts a show Sunday night (7-10 PM EDT). Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three.

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