Mock Draft Army ADP Trend Report

Technically, my fantasy baseball prep began in December when we started putting the 2016 MLB Draft Guide together. I was writing articles, creating spreadsheets, crunching numbers and yes, even setting up mock drafts. But these last three weeks have been absolute heaven with the return of the Mock Draft Army and now, with pitchers and catchers starting to roll in, I am the 9 year old girl who just got a pony for her birthday.

The sun is shining a little brighter, the birds are chirping a little louder and even my wife said she caught me smiling while I was hand-tabulating the ADP today. It’s still a tedious and mundane task which needs to be passed on to an intern, but whatever keeps me closest to baseball, I suppose. The bottom line is that, if we weren’t officially in fantasy baseball prep mode already, we certainly are now. The Mock Draft Army has a solid number of drafts under its belt and we’re starting to really see the ADP take shape.

I often like to compare the numbers here to those from the NFBC, but obviously, there are certain nuances which must be noted. For example, there is no trading in the NFBC. To me, that puts an extra emphasis on pitching, both starters and relievers. You may see a number of hurlers who have a higher ADP over there because you simply cannot deal a big bat for a power arm at any point in the season unless you’re swapping out from the waiver wire. We’re still seeing a lot of Army drafts where people are clinging to the potentially archaic notion that you must always wait on starting pitching and while guys like Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner are clear second-round picks in the NFBC, they’re dropping a round or two down in the Mock Draft Army. Heck, even Clayton Kershaw’s ADP is skewed as he is the consensus No. 4 pick in the NFBC yet falls further into the first round in most Army drafts.

It’s not a matter of right or wrong here, though. In order to properly use ADP, you need to understand the source. The NFBC has its own particular rules that don’t always apply to the rest of the fantasy baseball community. Fifteen-team leagues are the norm for the NFBC whereas the Army includes a lot more 12-team drafts because that’s actually the most popular league size these days. On some sites, the ADP is more a reflection of their default rankings because so many of their mocks are filled with auto-drafting or have participants who last about 10 rounds before leaving the draft room. Whatever the case may be, you need to do your homework before using the source.

Once you do settle on a particular ADP, or if you utilize multiple sources, you also need to understand that ADP is a guideline, not the gospel. It isn’t the same as player rankings. Not at all. Again, some sites where auto-drafting invades their mocks, the two are close, but even then, look at those first five or six rounds and you’ll understand that it’s just like crowdsourcing – it’s all public opinion. There are favorites, there are over-hyped players and there are those the public just can’t stand. The ADP reflects that. Just look at the numbers for some of these youngsters everyone continuously hypes.

But just like anything based in public opinion, there is the fickleness of humans to take into account. The theory of what goes up, must come down doesn’t always hold true, but in looking at the Mock Draft Army from today and comparing it to the numbers from just two weeks ago, you’ll see plenty of risers and fallers the closer we get to the regular season. In some cases, we’re starting to see some guys get taken now when they were considered undraftable just a short time ago. Welcome to the ADP Trend Report. Each week, I’ll be taking a look at some of the key players who have seen their ADP change in recent weeks and see if there is legitimate justification for it or if it’s just the whim of the people.

Risers

Byung-Ho Park, 1B MIN (+23.6%) – You want to talk about a guy seeing a lot of love from the drafters lately? Look no further than right here. Overlooked by many in the early drafts, Park has been growing in popularity as people try to figure out how his 50-home run power in the KBO will translate to MLB. Some are citing Jung-Ho Kang’s success while others are making the comparison to Japanese slugger Hideki Matsui when he first arrived. Park is still sitting in the bottom half of the first basemen and has an ADP near that of Mark Teixeira or Mitch Moreland, but should he come out and swing a big stick during spring training, it might not be long before he’s hovering just outside the top-10 with the likes of Eric Hosmer and Brandon Belt.

Howie Kendrick, 2B LAD (+15.0%) – Maybe it’s the lack of faith in Chase Utley garnering the majority of playing time at the keystone. Maybe it’s Kendrick’s willingness to move to the hot corner while Justin Turner continues his recovery from microfracture surgery. Whatever the case may be, Kendrick is seeing his ADP climb with each passing week and if he does, in fact, find himself with a strong potential for multi-position eligibility, he could climb even higher over the next month. Injury concerns will always be prevalent and he’s never going to hit for any legit power, but at a position where most drafters are waiting until the later rounds to fill, a guy hitting .290 and posting decent runs scored is going to have value.

Gerardo Parra, OF COL (+14.2%) – I’ll admit it…in a number of draft, I have purposely avoided drafting Parra for fear that I may drive his ADP up to a point where the price tag will be too high even for me. I became a huge fan last year as his breakout season in Milwaukee helped me earn quite a few bucks in DFS and now that he’s with the Rockies and the team traded away Corey Dickerson, it looks like Parra is going to move front-and-center for the fantasy community to see. Playing in Coors has the potential to be a nice boost, but let’s not sell Miller Park short as a haven for home runs. Also, here’s a fun fact: In 194 plate appearances at Coors Field, Parra has zero home runs. That’s right, zero. Eight stolen bases only, as well. His batting average and OBP are great, but the rest looks a bit rough. Am I concerned? You wouldn’t think so if you were looking at my cheat sheets.

Brad Ziegler, RP ARI (+12.2%) – Perhaps it’s the ranking on Real Time Fantasy Sports where the Mock Draft Army does its drafts, but for a guy who posted 30 saves with a 1.85 ERA last year and is walking into this season with the job in-hand, Ziegler is getting almost no respect. People have obviously been catching on lately, as evidenced by his increasing ADP, but he’s still one of the last closers off the board. There’s no little to no help in strikeouts, so that is definitely an issue, but with a career 66.7-percent ground ball rate, pitching to contact isn’t all that bad. As with any closer, you may have to look over your shoulder at Daniel Hudson or Tyler Clippard, but unless something dramatic happens this spring, Ziegler is one to watch for late.

Jonathan Schoop, 2B BAL (+11.1%) – Seriously. Who doesn’t love power at the keystone? It may not be Robinson Cano in Yankee Stadium, but Schoop’s ISO numbers have indicated growth and, with a full season’s worth of at-bats, is expected to break the 20-homer barrier this year. He still needs to cut back on the whiffs and learn to take a walk for crying out loud, but overall, Schoop is expected to develop into one heck of a second baseman. At least that’s what Peter Angelos, Dan Duquette and all of Schoop’s fantasy owners want.

Fallers

Hanley Ramirez, OF BOS (-29.6%) – Oh, how the mighty have fallen. And fallen. And fallen. With the chronic injuries and no more shortstop eligibility, Ramirez is taking a tumble in the overall ADP this year. What’s worse is where he’ll fall next year with just first base eligibility, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. The bottom line is that he is not the hitter he once was nor is he even remotely the base-stealer we once cherished. His numbers are about as pedestrian as you can get and with potential concerns about late-game defensive replacements, he may even start to lose at-bats even when he’s healthy.

Jose Reyes, SS COL (-22.3%) – The legal issues are still a concern as he is set to stand trial for domestic abuse charges on April 4, and he also could face discipline under the MLB's new domestic violence policy, which was agreed upon by both Major League Baseball and the MLBPA back in August. That concern will certainly trump the potential of spending a full season in Coors Field. If he is found not guilty and/or MLB chooses not to suspend him for any time, people could be getting a decent value for Reyes in drafts, based on his ADP, however, the red flags are too prevalent for me to bother with him.

Jung-Ho Kang, 3B PIT (-11.7%) – Recent reports are citing that Kang may not be ready for Opening Day as he continues to recover from the late-season broken leg he suffered last year and the subsequent knee surgery that followed. There doesn’t seem to be much concern about still being able to hit, though we are likely to see some regression from that .344 BABIP he posted. Look for more updates throughout the spring, but he is already doing some field work and is making throws across the diamond. While he may miss the start of the season, he won’t miss much time beyond that. That, coupled with his multi-position eligibility, keeps him on the watch-list.

Joe Panik, 2B SF (-8.7%) – While you can expect a decent batting average and, if he continues to bat second in the order, some good runs scored, but he is dropping because people are realizing that you’re probably not getting much else out of him. There’s no real power of which to speak and there is no speed to write home about. He’s a decent late-round NL-only option, but if you’re looking for some productivity out of the position in mixed leagues, he’s nothing more than a plug-and-play at the middle infield spot. If he does find his way onto your team, seek out the biggest Giants homer in your league and talk up the “even-year theory.” Those buffoons actually believe it!

Trea Turner, SS WAS (-7.4%) – There was some initial love for Turner, given that the Nationals said he was their starting shortstop in 2016, but cooler heads seemed to have prevailed and now the 22-year old is being looked at with a bit more skepticism. That’s not to say that he can’t be a productive asset both in fantasy and reality, but we just need to see a little more of him before we go running out and give him the Corey Seager treatment. His current 295.8 ADP is actually a blessing in disguise. While most will leave him be as they bulk up on veteran hitters and starting pitchers in the late rounds, he could be a nice, sneaky grab for your middle infield depth.

New Faces Worth Noting

Jonathan Villar, SS MIL – Maybe he’s just keeping the shortstop position warm for prospect Orlando Arcia, but Villar certainly should not be ignored in drafts. He’s not going to win you a championship, by any means, but he should be a decent source for some cheap speed, especially if he’s going to play every day. Arcia hasn’t even played above the Double-A level, so there’s still a lot to prove on his part. For Villar, it’s just a matter of doing, at the least, what he did last year.

Aaron Altherr, OF PHI – He’s penciled in as the Phillies starting right fielder and he could prove to be a nice late-round grab if you’re looking for some depth and a little bit of pop. He still needs to show some improvements with his plate discipline, but the 25-year old showed us last season that the power is starting to develop. Nothing to jump at here, but while the team is rebuilding, he’ll see the at-bats.

J.J. Hoover, RP CIN – For now, he’s listed as the guy who will see first crack at the closer’s job. He’s done it before for the Reds and while it was only short-term and he wasn’t exactly bowling them over, his experience could carry him through. Of course, the team has also been grooming Tony Cingrani for the ninth inning, so while Hoover may start the spring as the team’s closer, there’s no guarantee he’ll finish in that role.

Jeremy Jeffress, RP MIL – The assumption is that Will Smith will enter the season as the Brewers’ closer, however, Jeffress could also get a look this spring. He throws in the low-90s and saw some nice improvement in his K/BB over the last two seasons. There’s certainly a chance the Brewers let a competition develop if Jeffress impresses early.

Jason Grilli, RP ATL – He is expected to be ready for Opening Day and given that his injury was the reason he lost his job last year, it’s very possible that the Braves give Grilli the opportunity to compete with Arodys Vizcaino for the closer’s job. They’ll have to watch him over the spring, but he was dominant for them last season. I’m not saying run out and grab him, but don’t overlook him either.

Mock Draft Army ADP

**As always, for a copy of the ADP in a color-coded, sortable Excel spreadsheet, just email me at MockDraftArmy@yahoo.com