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2023 Player Outlook

Contreras exploded onto the scene in 2022, exceedingly outperforming expectations based on what we in his 2021 season. Across 97 games for the Braves last year, Contreras slashed .278/.354/.506 with 20 home runs, and he was a Statcast darling, highlighted by his 84th percentile hard-hit rate, 91st percentile barrel rate, and 97th percentile max exit velocity. The right-handed backstop crushed lefties at a .354 clip with a 1.036 OPS, but he still hit .247 against righties with a home run every 15.7 at-bats. I wouldn’t be concerned about the park switch whatsoever, given that his power will play in any park, and he’s nearly guaranteed to get the lion’s share of the starts behind the dish. While he may not maintain the same home run pace as he did in 2022, or hit .278, he’s got immense pop, and with added from a full season’s workload, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t provide fantasy managers with a .255 average and a home run total in the low-to-mid 20s.

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