2023 Player Outlook
2023 Recap: If it weren't for Bogaerts' 19 stolen bases last season, there would likely be a bit of a different tune around his 2023 season. As expected, his BABIP came down to a more normal mark, bringing his average to .285. He did hit 19 home runs, but the 19 stolen bases were the most of his career, and first time since 2017 he reached double-digits. I expect that number to be closer to the 12-14 range in 2024, and in terms of his batted ball profile, I his .252 xBA was the second lowest of his career, and his average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate were all his lowest marks in the past half-decade! His ground ball rate was north of 50 percent, and a strong second half aided by a .346 BABIP boosted his numbers.
2024 Outlook: Bogaerts is going outside of the top 100 players on average, and outside the top 10 at his position. Regression should hit him a bit in 2024, mainly in terms of his stolen base numbers and batting average, though the trend line for some of his batted ball metrics is far from reassuring, too. He's not overly expensive, but he falls in this no man's land at shortstop, with more intriguing options going just in front of him, as well as a round or two afterwards. Also, the second half of the San Diego lineup has more questions than answers, so his counting stats could be impacted slightly.