UFC Freedom 250 DFS Picks & Lineups: Topuria vs Gaethje Cheat Sheet 6/14
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs Gaethje takes place this Sunday from The White House in Washington DC. This is the most unique card possibly ever as it will be outdoors, on the South Lawn of the White House with only about 4000 people in attendance. The main event is a fight of the year contender for as long as it lasts since both Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje refuse to take a step backwards. Topuria looks to retain his 155lb belt, and with eyes on 170lbs he could be a three-division champion down the line. Justin Gaethje might be past his prime but he is still a pressure fighter who is going to look to make this a war in the pocket with both fighters throwing heavy punches. As always head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights MMA Ownership
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs Gaethje
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje | $9,600/5400 | - | Stackability: Low | -560/400 | -450/500 |
This slate is a little different because it is only for “Captain Mode”. In Captain Mode one of your fighters gets 1.5x the points but costs 1.5x the salary. I will be listing the “normal” price of each fighter in the Price section above. This fight is going to be probably the highest owned fight on the card, and Topuria is one of the clear picks for the captain spot. Ilia is -450 to win inside the distance and after finishing Max Holloway, Charles Oliviera, and Alexander Volkanovski I don’t think there is any argument that the line is incorrect. Ilia has some of the best boxing in the UFC, and Justin lacks proper defense so he should be able to land at will on him. Justin’s best skill has always been his cardio and durability, but he hasn’t faced someone that hits like Ilia. I don’t see Justin winning this fight for long stretches, but he could land a powerful punch to drop the champion. One thing that makes this slate different than other slates is that stacking fights is a viable option especially since at the prices you have to play two underdogs, and with only seven fights on the roster we may not even get two underdogs that win. Justin is one of the fighters that I think we can stack in a lineup because on the chance that this does go 3+ rounds we could see him be the highest scoring underdog on the card. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Mauricio Ruffy | 10000 | Michael Chandler | Somewhat-Safe | -725 | -333 |
Ruffy is my most confident pick on the card but at his price he makes for a really tough play. He has much better striking than the aging Chandler, and he should be able to keep him off of him using his counter wrestling for long enough to get the KO. If you play him in the captain you almost always need to make a lineup without Topuria unless you load up on 3+ underdogs so I won’t be going that route. | |||||
Josh Hokit | 9000 | Derrick Lewis | Somewhat-Safe | -400 | -250 |
Hokkit is my favorite high priced play this week because of the volume he throws, and how easy it is to finish Derrick Lewis at this point in his career. Hokit can be reckless but he has a clear path to winning this fight with his wrestling, and if he lands half the volume on Lewis that he landed on Blaydes this fight will be over with early. I’ll be targeting him in my captain spot since he has a high ceiling, and his $1000 discount of Ruffy really helps with the other pieces of the lineup. | |||||
Sean O’Malley | 9200 | Aiemann Zahabi | Somewhat-Safe | -450 | 180 |
Aiemann always fights to a decision which is why I have Sean rated a little lower than the other high priced fighters. I think this is one of the easier fights he has had in the past four years so he should be able to win with his speed and volume. Zahabi has been dropped in some of his recent fights but he recovers quickly and he will look to cage control and wrestle to slow the pace of the fight down. I don’t see O’Malley winning quickly so this is another one of the stackable fights. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Bo Nickal | 8800 | Kyle Daukaus | Moderate | -340 | 100 |
Bo is one of the only fighters on this card who has the ability to score 90+ in a decision outside of the five round fights. His wrestling should be more than enough to keep Kyle pinned to the ground, I just don’t know if he has enough volume to score 100+ and really break the slate as the captain of a lineup. He is improving rapidly, but if he tries to keep this standing it could be razor close fight where no one scores well. | |||||
Diego Lopes | 8400 | Steve Garcia | Moderate | -160 | 120 |
The opener for the card is going to be an absolute dog fight. Lopes has power, slick submissions, and great durability but his game plan looked horrible against Volk in both fights. Garcia is going to be throwing a ton of power on the other side of this fight and if Lopes things he can just walk through those strikes it could be a long night. I’ve been back and fourth on this fight all week and I landed on picking Lopes because of the grappling advantage if the fight gets there, but this will be a close fight and I could see Garcia scoring enough to end up on the optimal lineup in a loss. | |||||
Cyril Gane | 7600 | Alex Pereira | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | 200.0 |
This is the other five round fight on the card. Gane is a volume puncher, with mediocre wrestling, but that probably still gives him a wrestling advantage in this matchup against Pereira. Gane should be the faster fighters as Pereira moves up from 205lbs and is adding about 40lbs to his frame in a short period of time. At his best Gane can land 100+ significant strikes in a decision so at his price he makes for a strong play in the captain spot because he won’t kill you even if he gets to decision. | |||||
Alex Pereira | 7400 | Cyril Gane | Somewhat-Risky | 105 | 120 |
Alex basically needs the KO or he isn’t going to win the fight. I expect him to land the bigger shots but he might not land many of them thanks to the movement of Gane. This is Alex’s shot to be the first three division champion in the history of the UFC, so his power isn’t to be taken lightly. He was massive for 185/205lb so he is going to be roughly the same height as Gane. I’m picking Gane to win the fight but if Alex does land clean he can put down just about anyone in the UFC. | |||||
Steve Garcia | 6600 | Diego Lopes | Somewhat-Risky | 135 | 225 |
Garcia has a ton of power and comes out quickly. Lopes doesn’t move his head well so I could see Garcia landing cleanly and having the bigger moments of the fight. He does slow after the first round, so that is a concern but on this card with seven fighters he is the best true underdog on the card (not including Pereira at +105). | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Kyle Daukaus | 6200 | Bo Nickal | Somewhat-Risky | 250 | 400 |
Daukaus has talent, but his best skills have been his submission skills which could get neutralized against Nickal. If this stays standing it will be a tossup, but if this gets to the ground Daukaus will likely have to start in bottom position because Bo is going to dictate where the fight goes. | |||||
Derrick Lewis | 6000 | Josh Hokit | Somewhat-Risky | 300 | 380 |
Lewis has the power to end anyone, but he throws no volume. He doesn’t take a punch very well either so I expect this one to end quickly. | |||||
Aiemann Zahabi | 5800 | Sean O’Malley | Risky | 350 | 1000 |
Zahabi is a low volume fighter but is very durable. If no underdog wins on the card he should be able to score better than most of them so he makes sense in some lineups even if he doesn’t win. I don’t love his style for DK on a regular card, but on this one it makes sense to get him in some lineups. | |||||
Michael Chandler | 5000 | Mauricio Ruffy | Risky | 500 | 700 |
Chandler in his prime could win this fight but that was a long time ago. He has a decent amount of volume and wrestling, but his chin and speed have seemed to left him. This is a “step back” in competition compared to the title contenders he has been fighting but this is by no means an easy fight as Ruffy just beat Fiziev which was a statement win. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Pereira, Garcia, Daukaus, Gaethje
Picks and Stats
Ilia Topuria | vs | Justin Gaethje |
$9600 | DFS Salary | $5400 |
17-0-0 | Record | 27-5-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 19 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
-560 | Vegas Odds | 370 |
Alex Pereira | vs | Cyril Gane |
$7400 | DFS Salary | $7600 |
13-3-0 | Record | 13-2-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-113 | Vegas Odds | -113 |
Sean O’Malley | vs | Aiemann Zahabi |
$9200 | DFS Salary | $5800 |
18-3-0 | Record | 14-2-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-460 | Vegas Odds | 320 |
Mauricio Ruffy | vs | Michael Chandler |
$10000 | DFS Salary | $5000 |
13-2-0 | Record | 23-10-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 7 |
-700 | Vegas Odds | 500 |
Bo Nickal | vs | Kyle Daukaus |
$8800 | DFS Salary | $6200 |
8-1-0 | Record | 12-5-1 |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 12 |
-340 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
0 | ||
Diego Lopes | vs | Steve Garcia |
$8400 | DFS Salary | $6600 |
27-8-0 | Record | 19-5-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 15 |
12 | Subs | 0 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | 125 |
Josh Hokit | vs | Derrick Lewis |
$9000 | DFS Salary | $6000 |
9-0-0 | Record | 29-13-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 24 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-440 | Vegas Odds | 310 |