Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang, which will light up the Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Xuhui District, China, on Saturday, August 23, 2025, with the main card kicking off at 6:00 AM EDT. Led by a gritty light-heavy showdown between Johnny Walker and Zhang Mingyang, the card is populated with thrilling encounters such as Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling and Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta. We have expert analysis, value bets, and tactical deconstructions for our playbook, breaking down must-see fights from top to bottom weight classes to assist you in building winning DFS lineups for this action-packed fight card.
 

 

 

 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Johnny Walker vs Zhang Mingyang6800/9400-Stackability: Low280/ -200/
The Main Event would have been better positioned as the Co-Main, but we are here to see Mingyang Zhang. After a handful of early losses, Zhang has 12 consecutive first round finishes and looks to improve on that tally here. Walker for his size and dynamism, has been finished 7 times - 6 by KO. He’s been training with his brother who has implored him to wrestle or try for a heel hook. In fight interviews this week, Walker has made it clear he is there to strike. If the decision is to stand and bang, we could see Zhang in the LW Rankings after another R1 KO.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Yi Yizha9900Westin WilsonSomewhat-Safe#N/A#N/A
Yizha at this price range is more of a pick against Westin Wilson. Yi brings pace and excellent wrestling upside. He has showed good durability and cardio to go a full three rounds. For this price it will need be an absolute smash for a first minute stoppage or round one thrashing. I think Yi gets the finish, but a mid round sub while clean and efficient will not be optimal.
Taiyilake Nueraji9300Kiefer CrosbieSomewhat-Safe-500 
Question marks all around on this debut fighter. He has good size for the division and comes in as the much younger fighter. He presents predominately as a striker, with some looping accuracy and mostly has been smashing cans on his way up. He was originally scheduled to be in the Road to UFC, but dropped out during his weight cut and found his way into the UFC directly as a replacement for Song Kenan. 
 
Michel Pereira9200Kyle DaukausSomewhat-Safe-270 
The question here is which Pereira do we see? His showing against Magomedov, after the Fluffy fight, was as big a dud as we’ve seen this year. He gets a replacement opponent in Kyle Daukaus who should be tailor made for Pereira’s striking. He will be giving up size and reach and will likely need to consider Daukaus’s wrestling as he strikes. Absent a big kick or flash knockdown, this fight could see more minutes than moments.
Rong Rongzhu9100Austin HubbardModerate#N/A#N/A
Another wide line for another Enbo Fight Club fighter. Striking wise, I do not see Rongzhu piecing up Hubbard. Hubbard is durable enough the read here has to be on a wrestling and top control score well. Expect a lot of action even in a decision as Rongzhu brings a bunch of forward pressure.
Aljamain Sterling9000Brian OrtegaModerate#N/A#N/A
After Ortega’s weight miss and the expectation they hold to 153 for 5 rounds, expect Aljo to look and be significantly undersized. It won’t matter with his speed and Ortega being so hittable. My early lean with Aljo by smash decision with a number of takedowns and back control. With the weight miss, there is some concern around if the fight takes place, but with the expectation it does, Aljo is more live ITD.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Sergei Pavlovich8900Waldo Cortes-AcostaModerate-260 
This is another week where the mid-range is pretty week so I'm expanding it up to $8800. Park is a good wrestler and is going to go to war for your money so while he is around +200 to win inside the distance he can still score well at this price. I'll be focusing on stars and scrubs builds this week but Park is my favorite in this range.
Lone'er Kavanagh8800Charles JohnsonModerate-230 
Lone’er does a number of things well, but he’s hasn’t had a breakout performance as yet. His combination of striking, takedowns and cardio present well to win rounds, but he’s up against a similar builder of minutes versus Johnson. This looks like an action packed decision, but may not score well if he’s up two rounds and cruises in round three.
Uran Satybaldiev8700Diyar NurgozhaySomewhat-Risky-142 
Uran returns to LW from his debut against Martin Buday where he gave up a good 60lbs and still was right there at the end. He has a good mix of striking and has shown wrestling chops but is very hittable and doesn’t wear damage that well. He will have a good reach advantage in his orthodox stance versus a southpaw. Nurgohzay has been finished by kimura and Uran has one of those submission recently. We may see more wrestling here than expected with a true ceiling for upside.
Su Sumudaerji8500Kevin BorjasSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
This is a great spot for Sumudeaerji. He’s been on the cusp of some big outcomes only to have the tables turned. The risk against a pure striker in Borjas is reduced as six of his seven losses are by submission. His height and 4” reach advantage for Flyweight are major measurables. He has finishing upside, but if the fight goes to decision, the location will certainly help his cause.
SuYoung You8300Xiao LongSomewhat-Risky-126 
Su-Jitsu brings good wrestling upside for a BJJ practitioner. This should be a high volume affair between two bantamweights. Su Young will need to find his way into the clench and overcome a reach disadvantage but should do so consistently. The question is whether he can control Xaio for any length of time or if they wind back up on the feet instantly. The takedown upside is plenty, but without damage it may lead to a greasy split decision.
Gauge Young8200MaheshateSomewhat-Risky-138 
Tofiq isn't a young prospect but he is a local fighter so I expect him to get some hype. He is going to have to worry about the wrestling of Orolbai so it could be tough for him to pick and choose his shots. His best chance for a win is an all out blitz so I'm viewiing him as a high ceiling play.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Xiao Long7900SuYoung YouSomewhat-Risky108#N/A
Xiao is a minute winner and has excellent defensive wrestling. He’s shown plenty of cardio and striking to win this fight. This fight is going to be damage versus control with a decision likely.
Kevin Borjas7700Su SumudaerjiSomewhat-Risky144 
Still only 27, the Peruvian prospect has good striking volume and cardio to defeat Sumudearji. His lack of power to showcase may be an issue if it goes to the cards.
Diyar Nurgozhay7500Uran SatybaldievRisky120 
This lefty vs righty matchup will come down to Nurgozay’s ability to land from his power left side. If he cannot manage the distance or striking angles, he will likely try to wrestle and end up on the bottom. He throws hard and heavy with a hittable opponent.
Charles Johnson7400Lone'er KavanaghRisky190 
As an underdog in this spot, expect Johnson to be highly owned. There is enough cage time to see Johnson overcome a slow start and rally late if Kavanagh slows down.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta7300Sergei PavlovichRisky215 
Riding a five fight win streak, Cortes Acosta is going to pick away at Pavlovich with a crisp jab and leg strikes. It’s hard to see an ITD win, but unanimous decision from range might be optimal.
Kyle Daukaus7000Michel PereiraRisky220 
Kyle Daukaus returns to the UFC as a last minute replacement. He had a couple of regional wins after getting cut, while Pereira was fighting killers at 185. His chin was cracked when he was cut, but he is still live on the ground for his nickname submission.
Kiefer Crosbie6900Taiyilake NuerajiRisky385 
Is a fish out of water on the ground, but will be striking matchup against a last minute debut fighter. He was live vs Patterson and Jousset on the feet, but was instantly choked out when it hit the mat.
 

Sample Lineup

 

UFC Fight Night Betting Map

 

Picks and Stats

   
Johnny WalkervsZhang Mingyang
$6,800DFS Salary$9,400
Record: 21-9-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 19-6-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
280Vegas Odds-200
   
Brian OrtegavsAljamain Sterling
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 16-4-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 24-5-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
350Vegas Odds+145
   
Sergei PavlovichvsWaldo Cortes-Acosta
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 19-3-0RecordRecord: 14-1-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-260Vegas Odds215
   
SumudaerjivsKevin Borjas
#N/ADFS Salary$7,700
Record: 17-7-0RecordRecord: 10-3-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
#N/AVegas Odds144
   
Taiyilake NuerajivsKiefer Crosbie
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 11-1-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 10-5-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-500Vegas Odds385
 0 
MaheshatevsGauge Young
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 10-4-0RecordRecord: 9-3-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
118Vegas Odds-138
   
Charles JohnsonvsLone'er Kavanagh
$7,400DFS Salary$8,800
Record: 17-7-0RecordRecord: 9-0-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
190Vegas Odds-230
   
RongzhuvsAustin Hubbard
#N/ADFS Salary$7,100
Record: 26-6-0RecordRecord: 17-9-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-295Vegas Odds240
   
Michel PereiravsKyle Daukaus
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 31-13-0 (2 NC)RecordRecord: 15-4-0 (1 NC)
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-270Vegas Odds220
   
YizhavsWestin Wilson
#N/ADFS Salary$6,300
Record: 25-5-0RecordRecord: 17-9-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-140Vegas Odds830
   
Xiao LongvsSuYoung You
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 27-9-0RecordRecord: 15-3-0 (2 NC)
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
108Vegas Odds-126
   
Uran SatybaldievvsDiyar Nurgozhay
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 8-1-0RecordRecord: 10-1-0
#N/AKnockouts#N/A
 Subs 
-142Vegas Odds120