UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim takes place this Saturday from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 8:00PM on Paramount+. Muhammad is a few fights removed from claiming the title at 170lbs, but a poor game plan and a lack of commitment to his wrestling hurt him in his first title defense.  Bonfim is a rising prospect with a ton of talent and a knack for finding highlight-reel finishes. Both of these men have a chance to get in the title picture by the end of the year with a statement win here. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim

8300/7900

-

Stackability: Low

-125/ 100

300.0/175.0

Belal is someone that fans love to hate, but he is one of the more talented fighters on the roster. His boxing is good enough, and his wrestling is elite at times. Bonfim has a ton of talent and flashier strikes, but he is missing the gas tank to go along with it. This fight is close to a pick'em, but if this gets out of Round 2, I think Belal is going to get the finish late. With the wrestling upside, Belal is the clear play, and I'll be locking him in most of my lineups as well as placing a bet on him.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Alessandro Costa

9800

Matt Schnell

Somewhat-Safe

-649 

-450. 

Costa has a ton of raw power, and while Schnell is a technical fighter, he is getting older, and his chin is shot. If Schnell can wrestle, he could drag out the fight, but eventually, Costa is going to find the KO.

Iwo Baraniewski

9000

Junior Tafa

Somewhat-Safe

-400 

-333. 

Iwo has power that can match Tafa's, but sometimes he gets into a firefight. He mentioned in his last fight that his game plan was to grapple, but he landed one punch and KO'd his opponent, so he never got to use it. I expect him to have the same game plan here, which is why I am betting him to win by sub at +330 and score massively on DK.

Marcus McGhee

9500

John Yannis

Somewhat-Safe

-500 

-138. 

McGhee is taking a massive step back in competition after facing Petr Yan last time out. He has a clear wrestling and grappling advantage, and on the feet, he has an advantage, but it is a little closer. Yannis is durable, so he might have a hard time putting him away with the striking, but he will dominate this fight. 

Fares Ziam

9100

Tom Nolan

Moderate

-333 

130.0 

Ziam is a kickboxer at heart but has been a much better wrestler lately. Nolan is a very talented mixed martial artist, but similar to Matt Schnell, he has no chin. Ziam should be able to get the KO whenever he eventually lands.

Brendan Allen

8800

Edmen Shahbazyan

Moderate

-225 

120.0 

Edmen has one round of cardio before falling apart, and the grappling pace that Allen pushes is going to be too much for him. Allen probably doesn’t get the quick-win bonus or 90-point Round 1 win bonus, but I'm betting that he gets the R2/3 finish once Edmen slows down.




 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Bruno Silva

8400

Edgar Chairez

Moderate

-138 

275.0 

The mid-range is tightly contested this week. This fight is close to a pick'em, but Silva has faced the much better competition. In his last six fights, his losses include Joshua Van and #1 contender Manel Kape, so when he loses, it's against some of the best in the division. He has a volume advantage, but Chairez is tough, so it'll be hard for him to get a finish. I'm confident he wins, but he doesn't have a high ceiling.

Santiago Luna

7700

Bryce Mitchell

Moderate

120 

275.0 

If Luna wasn't on short notice, he would likely be the favorite here. He has shown the ability to land 125+ significant strikes and multiple takedowns in fights, so the pace he pushes will break most opponents. He is a Mexican wrestling champion, but he decided to pursue MMA instead of trying to qualify for the Olympics, so I don't think Bryce will be able to get him down. On the feet, he is going to dominate this fight.

Priscila Cachoeira

8000

Chelsea Chandler

Somewhat-Risky

100 

200.0 

Priscila trains with some of the best in the game, including Amanda Nunes, so she is still improving. Her biggest weakness has always been her takedown defense, but she was recently awarded her BJJ Brown Belt, so I expect her to at least be able to compete if this gets to the ground. On the feet, she hits harder, and Chandler has shown that she will look for a way out if the fight becomes a brawl.

Jordan Leavitt

7600

Joanderson Brito

Somewhat-Risky

163 

450.0 

I've been back and forth on this fight all week. Leavitt is the better technical grappler, but Brito has the strength advantage. I'm leaning towards Leavitt being able to get the fight to the ground, controlling Brito, and possibly finding the late submission as Brito slows down.

Joanderson Brito

8600

Jordan Leavitt

Somewhat-Risky

-200 

120.0 

Brito has the power advantage, so if he wins, it'll likely be in spectacular fashion with either a highlight KO or a power guillotine. He'll be getting outworked until the finish comes, so don't bank on him winning a decision if it gets there.

Edgar Chairez

7800

Bruno Silva

Somewhat-Risky

110 

175.0 

Chairez is tough and has gone the distance with both Tatsuro Taira and Joshua Van, so it is tough to see him get finished here. If Silva slows down (and a 36yr old flyweight certainly can), there is a chance Chairez can do enough to get the win. When they are fresh, he is going to be outmatched in all aspects, but cardio is the great equalizer.

Bryce Mitchell

8500

Santiago Luna

Risky

-150 

300.0 

Mitchell, at his best, was a stud wrestler and fought at the top of the division. Unfortunately for him, he never really made MMA his priority, as he still trains out of the home gym that he built on his farm. I don't see him having the wrestling to compete with Luna, or the striking to make it competitive on the feet.




 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Edmen Shahbazyan

7400

Brendan Allen

Somewhat-Risky

175 

225.0 

He has one round of cardio, and for those five minutes, he can KO almost anyone. At his price, he is worth a shot because he'll either be the piece you need to win the tournament, or he'll blow up your lineup.

Junior Tafa

7200

Iwo Baraniewski

Somewhat-Risky

300 

350.0 

Tafa is similar to Edmen, where he is dangerous in the first round, but only on the feet. If Iwo takes him down, he probably doesn't get back up, so he has a few minutes to make this a brawl before he tires out and gets subbed.

Ariane Carnelossi

7300

Ketlen Souza

Risky

225 

500.0 

Carnelossi is JACKED for WMMA, but she gasses out quickly. She doesn't have the finishing abilities of Edmen or Junior, but she could outwrestle Ketlen in the early parts of this fight. She might be able to do enough in the first 8 minutes to win the decision, but I expect her to get beaten up pretty bad in R3.

Tom Nolan

7100

Fares Ziam

Risky

250 

600.0 

He has all the tools to be a top 15 fighter except for a chin. If this goes to a decision, I wouldn't be surprised if he won, but it is going to be tough for him to get Ziam out of there, and even tougher not to get clipped at some point over the 15 minutes.

Yuneisy Duben

6900

Jeisla Chaves

Risky

260 

500.0 

She is low volume but throws as hard as she can. She has almost zero striking defense, but she does have a "puncher's chance" to land something and get the KO.

Matt Schnell

6400

Alessandro Costa

Risky

450 

900.0 

He is the better wrestler, and Costa is in on short notice, so we could see Costa look rusty to start the fight, but I can't see a world where Schnell can hold him down long enough to keep himself safe from a KO.


 

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Luna, Chairez, Bonfim, Cachoeira

Picks and Stats

   

Belal Muhammad

vs

Gabriel Bonfim

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

24-5-0

Record

19-1-0

5

Knockouts

4

1

Subs

13

-125 

Vegas Odds

100 

   

Brendan Allen

vs

Edmen Shahbazyan

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

26-7-0

Record

16-5-0

6

Knockouts

13

14

Subs

1

-225 

Vegas Odds

175 

   

Fares Ziam

vs

Tom Nolan

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

18-4-0

Record

10-1-0

6

Knockouts

5

5

Subs

1

-333 

Vegas Odds

250 

   

Bryce Mitchell

vs

Santiago Luna

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

18-3-0

Record

8-0-0

1

Knockouts

3

9

Subs

4

-150 

Vegas Odds

120 

   

Iwo Baraniewski

vs

Junior Tafa

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

8-0-0

Record

7-5-0

6

Knockouts

7

2

Subs

0

-400 

Vegas Odds

300 

 

0

 

Matt Schnell

vs

Alessandro Costa

$6,400

DFS Salary

$9,800

17-10-0

Record

15-5-0

2

Knockouts

6

9

Subs

6

450 

Vegas Odds

-649 

   

Marcus McGhee

vs

John Yannis

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

10-2-0

Record

10-4-0

8

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

0

-500 

Vegas Odds

350 

   

Bruno Silva

vs

Edgar Chairez

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

15-8-2

Record

13-6-0

6

Knockouts

4

5

Subs

8

-138 

Vegas Odds

110 

   

Priscila Cachoeira

vs

Chelsea Chandler

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

13-8-0

Record

6-4-0

8

Knockouts

2

0

Subs

1

100 

Vegas Odds

-125 

   

Jordan Leavitt

vs

Joanderson Brito

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

13-3-0

Record

18-5-1

2

Knockouts

7

7

Subs

8

163 

Vegas Odds

-200 

   

Jeisla Chaves

vs

Yuneisy Duben

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

6-0-0

Record

6-1-0

3

Knockouts

5

0

Subs

1

-350 

Vegas Odds

260 

   

Ketlen Souza

vs

Ariane Carnelossi

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

16-6-0

Record

15-4-0


 

8

Knockouts

9

2

Subs

2

-300 

Vegas Odds

225