UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Cheat Sheet, 2/28

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh

8700/7500

-

Stackability: Low

-225/ 185

165/500

This is a weird main event this week as former title holder Brandon Moreno faces unranked Lone'er Kavanagh. Kavanagh has fast hands, power, and decent offensive wrestling but this is a big step up for him especially coming off of a loss. Moreno has started to slow down, although he isn't "old" he has a lot of fight mileage on him. Moreno should have the better cardio, and especially at 10,000 feet elevation in Mexico City we have seen cardio be the downfall of many fighters. I think Moreno gets it done in Round 3/4/5 but it's going to be competitive until Lone'er slows down.

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Francis Marshall

9600

Erik Silva

Somewhat-Safe

-700 

-245

I think Marshall is the most trustworthy fighter on the card. He is going to wrestle, he's the better striker, more durable. If he doesn't take his foot off the gas, he could put up a monster score.

Cristian Quinonez

9700

Kris Moutinho

Somewhat-Safe

-650 

-225

This is a bizarre fight. Quinonez doesn't have a win in the UFC since 2022, and Mountinho is 0-3 in the UFC. Mountinho made a name for himself by showing off his durability against Sean O'Malley but it was not a competitive fight. Since then, Mountinho looks to have lost his chin with some bad KO losses to not great strikers. Quinonez has a huge ceiling here if Moutinho’s chin is really gone.

Santiago Luna

9300

Angel Pacheco

Somewhat-Safe

-620 

-225

Luna is hyper aggressive and Pacheco can be defensively irresponsible. Luna probably has more upside than Quinonez or Marshall but I do not trust his cardio as much if this fight gets late into Round 2/3.

Daniel Zellhuber

9400

King Green

Moderate

-500

105

This entirely comes down to what version of "King" Green shows up. Green's durability has been going, but this matchup is still closer than the line suggests. Zellhuber has the reach and speed advantages so if he uses them properly, he'll win, but he isn't anywhere near as trustworthy as the other high-priced options.

Ryan Gandra

9500

Jose Daniel Medina

Moderate

-720 

-245

He's pretty much an unproven fighter but he has all the tools to dominate this fight. Similar to Luna, he should dominate this fight early, we just don't know how his cardio will hold up if the fight goes long. Medina doesn't have a single win in the UFC so this should be a clear victory for Gandra, I think by KO.

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

David Martinez

8900

Marlon Vera

Moderate

-330 

600

Martinez is most likely to win in this range, but finishing Marlon Vera is a tough task. Of the fighters 9K and under I think he is most likely to win but he isn't someone I'm going to be using much in tournaments because without a finish he won't score more than 80pts.

Damian Pinas

8800

Wes Schultz

Moderate

-250

-200

Pinas will need to weather the early storm and avoid submission attempts but he should be able to handle that. His volume is going to dictate this fight and a R2/3 finish is likely.

Javier Reyes

8600

Douglas Silva de Andrade

Somewhat-Risky

-230

140

Reyes is taking on a 41-year-old Silva de Andrade, so although I don't rate Reyes very highly, I do think he can take advantage of an aging fighter. Reyes should come out quickly and I think he'll be too much for Andrade. My only hesitation is that Andrade hasn't fought since 2024 so I don't know how he is going to look here after 18 months off.

Ailin Perez

8500

Macy Chiasson

Somewhat-Risky

-188 

550

In this fight I think the upside is clear with Perez. She is going to try to wrestle and be the fighter moving forward. Chiasson is big for the division, but she is a little more clunky than Perez so I think she'll have a hard time getting away from Perez's clinch.

Regina Tarin

7600

Javier Reyes

Somewhat-Risky

152 

500

Tarin is stepping in on short notice but is a local Mexican fighter with a ton of finishes on her undefeated record. This is a low-level fight and on a card with a ton of massive underdogs Tarin is reasonably priced.

Macy Chiasson

7700

Somewhat-Risky

146 

450

Chiasson is big and her fights are always a little chaotic and clumsy. If Perez can't get her wrestling going, she has a clear path to win by keeping it standing and using her striking.

Douglas Silva de Andrade

7600

Javier Reyes

Risky

190 

475

If the time off rejuvenated his body, he'll be able to win this fight, possibly with a late finish. He's just tricky to figure out how he'll look after 18 months off from fighting, but I'm sure his power is still there.

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Wes Schultz

7400

Damian Pinas

Somewhat-Risky

210 

275

Shultz has one round cardio and great submission skills. If he wins, he is almost a lock to be on the optimal lineup so at his price he should be pretty popular.

Marlon Vera

7300

David Martinez

Somewhat-Risky

240 

500

He's more likely to go to decision that Schultz, but his low volume approach especially early on in fights makes him a tough click on DraftKings whenever he is the favorite. At $7300 though he might be the cheapest fighter to get a win and at that point it doesn't matter that he may only score 70 in a win.

Kevin Borjas

7000

Imanol Rodriguez

Risky

330 

550

Borjas is a tough fighter, and I could see him winning by decision if he makes it a gritty fight. If this is a flashy kickboxing fight he is probably in for a long night.

Angel Pacheco

6900

Santiago Luna

Risky

400 

750

Neither of these fighters are very experienced so Luna could very well gas out if he doesn't pace himself. Pacheco just outlasting Luna and turning it up late wouldn't surprise me.

King Green

6800

Daniel Zellhuber

Risky

350 

900

If I could trust his fight iq and chin I would have him higher. I think the odds are a little wide but he has a habit of losing close fights and I could see that happening again here.

Jose Daniel Medina

6700

Ryan Gandra

Risky

500

800

Medina is another fighter who needs to go in with the plan to just outlast his opponent. He is giving up a ton of speed so he'll need to tire Gandra out before trying to get into a firefight with him or else he is going to get KO'd.

Kris Moutinho

6500

Cristian Quinonez

Risky

420 

800

Another fight with two fighters who could be cut with a loss. If Quinonez doesn't tread carefully he could get into a firefight with Moutinho and it wouldn't be that surprising if he got chin checked. I still think Moutinho's chin gives out first but at $6500 he is someone I would still want to look at if I was entering multiple lineups.

Brandon Moreno

vs

Lone'er Kavanagh

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 23-9-2 

Record

Record: 9-1-0 

5

Knockouts

4

11

Subs

1

-225 

Vegas Odds

+185 

Marlon Vera

vs

David Martinez

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

Record: 23-11-1 

Record

Record: 13-1-0 

8

Knockouts

10

10

Subs

0

240 

Vegas Odds

-330 

Daniel Zellhuber

vs

King Green

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 15-3-0 

Record

Record: 33-17-1 (1 NC) 

7

Knockouts

11

3

Subs

9

-500

Vegas Odds

350 

Edgar Chairez

vs

Felipe Bunes

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 12-6-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 14-8-0 

4

Knockouts

2

8

Subs

9

-330 

Vegas Odds

240 

Imanol Rodriguez

vs

Kevin Borjas

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 6-0-0 

Record

Record: 10-4-0 

5

Knockouts

8

1

Subs

0

-480 

Vegas Odds

330 

0

Santiago Luna

vs

Angel Pacheco

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 7-0-0 

Record

Record: 7-3-0 

3

Knockouts

5

4

Subs

2

-620 

Vegas Odds

400 

Ryan Gandra

vs

Jose Daniel Medina

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 8-1-0 

Record

Record: 11-6-0 

5

Knockouts

8

1

Subs

2

-720 

Vegas Odds

500

Ailin Perez

vs

Macy Chiasson

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 12-2-0 

Record

Record: 11-5-0 

4

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

3

-188 

Vegas Odds

146 

Cristian Quinonez

vs

Kris Moutinho

$9,700

DFS Salary

$6,500

Record: 18-5-0 

Record

Record: 14-7-0 

10

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

3

-650 

Vegas Odds

420 

Douglas Silva de Andrade

vs

Javier Reyes

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

Record: 29-6-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 22-5-0 

20

Knockouts

10

2

Subs

8

190 

Vegas Odds

-250 

Regina Tarin

vs

Ernesta Kareckaite

$7,600

DFS Salary

$9,100

Record: 7-0-0 

Record

Record: 6-1-1 

4

Knockouts

2

2

Subs

0

152 

Vegas Odds

-196 

Erik Silva

vs

Francis Marshall

$6,600

DFS Salary

$9,600

Record: 9-3-0 

Record

Record: 8-3-0 

3

Knockouts

1

4

Subs

4

490 

Vegas Odds

-700 

Damian Pinas

vs

Wes Schultz

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record 8-1-0

Record

Record: 8-2-0 

7

Knockouts

2

1

Subs

5

-250

Vegas Odds

210