UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Cheat Sheet, 5/2
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddelena vs Prates takes place this Saturday from Perth, Australia. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00 AM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 AM on Paramount+. Former title holder Jack Della Maddelena takes on rising prospect Carlos Prates as they both look to make a claim to get a shot at the title. Both of these men have dynamite in their hands and rarely take a step backwards. This fight will be an exciting, striking battle that should put a stamp on what looks like a great card from Australia. This is going to be an action-packed fight that could end at any time. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Della Maddelena vs Prates
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates | 8000/8200 | - | Stackability: Low | -105/ -120 | 200.0/140.0 |
This is a tough main event to pick as former title holder JDM faces rising prospect Carlos Prates. JDM has looked great in his title run, but he avoided a lot of the current top 5 on his run up, so it's tough to tell how tested he is. His striking defense is much better than Prates, but he is giving up a lot of reach in this matchup. Prates' biggest issue in his only UFC loss was that he didn't trust his cardio and allowed himself to get outworked for the first 4 rounds of the fight, before almost finding a finish in the 5th. I think Prates is going to grow off of that loss and experience and put together a proper 25-minute fight here, using his range to keep JDM on the defensive. Prates by decision is my official pick. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Marwan Rahiki | 9600 | Ollie Schmid | Somewhat-Safe | -1000 | |
This fight was just added, and while I don't think either of these guys is really UFC-caliber, Ollie Schmid getting signed is 100% only because he is a local. Schmid is 4-2 in his professional run, winning two of the fights by spinning back fist. Rahiki is 8-0 and just stopped a former UFC fighter in his last fight before joining the promotion, so the level of competition isn't close. Rahiki should dominate this fight unless he gets hit by a spinning backfist. | |||||
Quillan Salkilld | 9400 | Beneil Dariush | Somewhat-Safe | -450 | -333. |
His power is too much for Dariush to handle, especially now that Dariush is older. If this stays standing, it is just a matter of time before Quillan finds the KO. The only chance Beneil has is if he can get the fight on the ground and slow down the pace, but he won't be able to do that for too long. | |||||
Jacob Malkoun | 9800 | Gerald Meerschaert | Somewhat-Safe | -1,000 | -200. |
Malkoun is more of a finisher, but GM3 is making nearly his 60th professional appearance here, so he is far from the man he used to be. Malkoun has good wrestling, but his only chance of losing is by submission, so he may opt to keep it standing to avoid the danger. If this is a 15-minute striking battle, Malkoun won't score great in a decision, but at -200 to end the fight inside the distance, he has a good chance of putting away the old veteran. | |||||
Cam Rowston | 8900 | Robert Bryczek | Moderate | -163 | 105.0 |
Rowston is a finisher, but the fighters in the top range drop massively in odds after the first few. Rowston has shown an ability to finish, especially once he gets his opponent on the ground, and while Bryczek is a strong fighter, he struggled with the reach of Potieria, and this is a very similar matchup. | |||||
Kody Steele | 8800 | Dom Mar Fan | Moderate | -200 | 175.0 |
Steele has a rough debut against an aggressive fighter, but I am confident Mar Fan is going to play exactly into Steele's strengths. Mar Fan constantly backs up when pressured, which is going to lead to Steele being able to get takedowns along the fence. I don't know if he finishes, but if he gets 4-5 takedowns and lands a bunch of strikes, he could still pay off his price. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Junior Tafa | 8700 | Kevin Christian | Moderate | -225 | -150. |
I'm going to target upside in this range this week with all the finishers in it. Tafa is a horrible fighter outside of Round 1, but he has more than enough power to end this fight quickly. I'm expecting him to drop Christian early with his speed and power. Christian is going to dominate if this gets down on the ground, so if this gets out of Round 1, Tafa will look like he should have been a +400 underdog. | |||||
Tai Tuivasa | 8600 | Louie Sutherland | Moderate | -225 | -138. |
He is similar to Tafa but with more durability. Outside of Round 1, he just won't score enough because he is only landing 20-30 significant strikes per round. We just have to hope one of them is enough to end the fight early. | |||||
Ben Johnston | 8500 | Wes Schultz | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | -110. |
This fight is another late notice fight, and neither guy really stands out as someone who is going to hang around the UFC very long. This fight is -170 to end in under 1.5 rounds, so even though I don't rate either of these guys as great fighters, this is a fight that probably ends with a good DraftKings score. Johnston is 5-1 with all 6 of his fights ending in 6 minutes or less. He has good submission skills, so look for him to get the fight down early and to hold position while hunting for the finish. | |||||
Brando Pericic | 8400 | Shamil Gaziev | Somewhat-Risky | -138 | -138. |
Brando has nearly the same odds to win as getting a finish, which is expected from a heavyweight who has landed nearly 13 strikes per minute in his brief UFC career. He is either going to get the finish or gas out trying, which at $8400 is exactly what you want. | |||||
Vince Morales | 7900 | Colby Thicknesse | Somewhat-Risky | 110 | 350.0 |
Morales normally lands a couple of takedowns, and while he isn't a potent finisher, he does have a chance at it. On a normal week, a +110 at sub $8000 price is highly owned, but this week, with all of the high upside fights, I think he goes overlooked. If the favorites in the mid-range win, he might be the piece you need to make a good lineup. | |||||
Shamil Gaziev | 7800 | Brando Pericic | Somewhat-Risky | 110 | 163.0 |
Gaziev has a ton of power and has shown he can go the distance if needed, so if this is a prolonged fight, he should have the advantage. He was KO'd twice recently, but once was in R4 after he gassed out, and once was by Waldo, who is now firmly in the top 3 of the division. This is going to be a high volatility fight, so if you roster it, be prepared for 100+ or sub 10pts, but in a tournament, that is the type of fight we want. | |||||
Wes Schultz | 7700 | Ben Johnston | Risky | 120 | 150.0 |
Schultz hasn't had a fight go more than 7 minutes in any of his last 7, and he mixes up submissions and KO's. It's only been two months since he was last KO'd, which is why I lean towards Johnston because I have no idea how his chin and durability have recovered in such a short amount of time. | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Kevin Christian | 7500 | Junior Tafa | Somewhat-Risky | 175 | 200.0 |
He has a much better ground game, but will need to survive the early power from Tafa/ At his price, I don't mind having to wait out the first round because in a second or third round finish, he can still pay off his price tag. | |||||
Robert Bryczek | 7300 | Cam Rowston | Somewhat-Risky | 130 | 240.0 |
He is a small underdog at this price, which is going to make him a popular play. He is absolutely jacked, and it isn’t just for show, as he had 5 straight R1 KO's before joining the UFC. If he lands clean, he can put Cam down. | |||||
Tim Elliott | 6900 | Steve Erceg | Risky | 210 | 500.0 |
Elliott always pushes the pace in Round 1, and as long as he holds on, he will keep this fight close. I'm expecting Tim to shoot a bunch of takedowns early on in the fight. Erceg isn't a one-punch KO power guy, so I don't think he will be able to get Tim out of there early. Tim is a good play because even scoring 70 in a decision win, he will pay off his price. | |||||
Themba Gorimbo | 7000 | Jonathan Micallef | Risky | 200 | 400.0 |
Themba can outwrestle Micallef here, but he is very low volume. If his wrestling isn't working, he is going to land at most 60 significant strikes in a decision. I think he should be able to get a few takedowns, though, so I'm considering him and considering fading Micallef. | |||||
Dom Mar Fan | 7400 | Kody Steele | Risky | 170 | 400 |
Most of his fights go to decision, and he is taking on someone who should be able to outmuscle him. He doesn't make much sense this week with other options around him. He only has 4 career finishes against a much lower level of competition. | |||||
Beneil Dariush | 6800 | Quillan Salkilld | Risky | 333 | 500.0 |
He has a clear advantage on the ground, but his durability may not allow him to get in close to get the fight down. Even if he gets it down, I don't see him getting a quick finish, so he'll have to play it safe. He is the most skilled underdog on the card (with Elliott), but he has a very tough matchup. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Della Maddalena, Elliott, Bryczek, Morales, Gaziev
Picks and Stats
Jack Della Maddalena | vs | Carlos Prates |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 18-3-0 | Record | Record: 23-7-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 18 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
Beneil Dariush | vs | Quillan Salkilld |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
Record: 23-7-1 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 4 |
333 | Vegas Odds | -450 |
Tim Elliott | vs | Steve Erceg |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 22-13-1 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
8 | Subs | 6 |
210 | Vegas Odds | -275 |
Marwan Rahiki | vs | Ollie Schmid |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 4-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-1000 | Vegas Odds | 600 |
Shamil Gaziev | vs | Brando Pericic |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
110 | Vegas Odds | -138 |
0 | ||
Tai Tuivasa | vs | Louie Sutherland |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 15-9-0 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 8 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | 175 |
Cam Rowston | vs | Robert Bryczek |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 18-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 12 |
7 | Subs | 1 |
-163 | Vegas Odds | 130 |
Junior Tafa | vs | Kevin Christian |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 6-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 4 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | 175 |
Jacob Malkoun | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
$9,800 | DFS Salary | $6,400 |
Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 37-21-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 29 |
-1000 | Vegas Odds | 600 |
Colby Thicknesse | vs | Vince Morales |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-10-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 5 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
Ben Johnston | vs | Wes Schultz |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 5-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 5 |
-140 | Vegas Odds | 120 |
Jonathan Micallef | vs | Themba Gorimbo |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 6 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | 200 |
Don Ma Fan | vs | Kody Steele |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |