This Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, UFC 323 delivers one of the most stacked cards of the year, headlined by a heated bantamweight title rematch between relentless champion Merab Dvalishvili and former king Petr Yan in a five-round war thats guaranteed to produce fireworks. The co-main event features another title on the line as flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja defends against the explosive Joshua Van, while the rest of the card is absolutely loaded with high-upside talents like Brandon Moreno, Henry Cejudo, Jan Blachowicz, Edson Barboza, Jalin Turner, and Maycee Barber. With massive scoring potential across the board and several fights primed to end inside the distance, UFC 323 is a DFS dream on DraftKings. This cheat sheet gives you the top picks, optimal lineups, value plays, and ownership leverage you need to take down tournaments on December 6th.

 

 

UFC 323 DFS Picks & Lineups: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Cheat Sheet, 12/6

Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan9500/6700-Stackability: Safe-410/+320+400/+800
Merab Dvalishvili defends his bantamweight belt in a rematch against former champ Petr Yan – a sequel to their 2023 clash dominated by Merab’s relentless wrestling.  This five-rounder is a DFS gold mine, particularly on Merab’s side.  Dvalishvili’s style - high volume wrestling and striking- gives him one of the highest floors and ceilings on the slate. Even in a decision, he can put up 100+ points through sheer activity. As the second highest priced fighter, he’s might still have value.  Auto play for cash lineups due to his scoring  consistency. It's hard not to see Petr Yan, as contrarian GPP dart throw. To win, he keeps it standing and striking, catch Merab with a knee for a KO or late finish. Dvalishvili is a top DFS target – his mammoth output should score very highly in a win. Yan is a low-owned leverage play if you believe he can defend and maintain distance. Otherwise, fade the challenger and ride the cardio machine.
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
UFC 323 Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Co-Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van9000/7200-Stackability: Somewhat- Safe-240/+195+120/+500
The co-main sees Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja put his title on the line against 24-year-old phenom Joshua Van in a five-round fight with finish potential on both sides. Pantoja has a clear ceiling via submission or with a dominant grappling display and control time. A mid-round submission where he gets to Van's back or even a decision win for Pantoja with a lot of top control and strikes might still be optimal given the expected Flyweight pace. Van, at 7200, offers serious upside - where few would be surprised if wins via KO. Van can use his footwork and quick 1–2 combinations to tag Pantoja and then angle out.  He will need to mind his kicks to avoid takedowns or scrambles and is also untested in rounds 4 and 5.  BUT his win condition is legit. Pantoja is slightly safer given his championship experience and multiple paths to a solid score, but Van offers boom-or-bust value that could win a tournament if he snags a highlight reel KO.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Mansur Abdul-Malik9800TrocoliSomewhat-Safe-1,300-450
As the highest priced fighter, Abdul-Malik looks to be in a mismatch with first minute KO in play. He will come forward and look to land heavy punches as Trocoli starts slow and backs straight up.  Trocoli's status a 'not a UFC-caliber fighter' in tandem to Mansur's physicality are all reflected in the betting lines.
Jalin Turner9300BarbozaSomewhat-Safe-310-200
Turner returns from a short retirement, after getting finished twice where he was ahead in both fights.  It won't matter on Saturday as he uses his reach and aggression to get to Barboza early.  Besides trying to overwhelm, he needs to manage distance and be all the win or out to negate Barboza's kicks.  Turner has found ways to put himself in trouble but a right hook as Barboza tries to circle to distance is my pick.
 
Payton Talbott9200CejudoSomewhat-Safe-260+250
I expect Talbott to utilize his length, youth, and striking skill to pick Cejudo apart. Talbott should be able to keep this fight standing, at kickboxing distance with Cejudo feinting takedowns but never really committing.  Given Cejudo will likely be the one pressing the action we could see three rounds of striking and a lot of distance control.  
Mairon Santos9100NaimovModerate-250+275
Striker vs wrestler with Santos favoring a measured approach behind powerful leg kicks and counter striking.  He isn't as accurate for his volume and has been susceptible to takedowns.  He is the better, more technical fighter, but could spend time on the mat or grinding against the cage which limits his ceiling. 
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Grant Dawson8900TorresModerate-220-115
Wrestler vs striker with Dawson having a clear script to wrestle, rinse, repeat. He has excellent timing on double legs and chain-wrestles if the first shot fails. He has shown to be chinny and Torres is a beast early, but Dawson may have as high a ceiling on the card. An immediate takedown off Torres berserking is possible where Dawson piles on strikes and top control to wear down Torres on his way to a finish. 
Iwo Baraniewski8800AslanSomewhat-Safe-190-145
Baraniewski will be highly popular based on the betting odd and pricing. His ITD upside is clear in this debut where he can show explosive striking or a mix of grappling skills. There is not much tape or fight time to go from, but the skills pop and this matchup offers a clear grappling path as Aslan swings with wild hooks. Consider his ceiling versus it might only take one takedown to get the submission. 
Maycee Barber8700SilvaModerate-200+380
We've seen Maycee and know she is a well-rounded fighter especially in clinch grappling and with elbows. She can use her strength gains the fence, then unload striking combinations with a solid but unspectacular ceiling. She's a strong pick for a decision win and is a safe pick for cash games. 
Chris Duncan8600McKinneySomewhat-Risky-140-125
Huge leverage spot in a binary fight for the willing. Duncan has been blitzed early before and is against an opponent who is lightning in a bottle. OR Duncan survives R1, McKinney is exhausted, Duncan pours it on and gets a KO. Expect a firefight but Ducan's path and ceiling are clear with technical striking and a nice '2-3' to set up double leg takedowns. 
Tatsuro Taira8500MorenoSomewhat-Risky-125+400
The new wave of Flyweight contenders is featured here with Taira and his next-gen grappling. This is big step forward beyond Royval, but goes down as a three round fight. Using his footwork and simple striking to enable scrambles and wrestling transitions, Taira would be the first to sub Moreno. 2+ takedowns with minutes of back control would possibly be a unanimous decision without much striking. 
Jan Blachowicz8400GuskovSomewhat-Risky-130+225
Blachowicz comes in with question marks, but also major credentials. Age and explosiveness are concerns, but he still has the experience advantage and a well-round skillset. Look for Jan to mix levels, staying at range to get Guskov to overextend to mix in takedowns and sap Guskov's cardio. If he is successful, we will watch a vet lesson via leg kicks, clinch work, and ground-and-pound. 
Fares Ziam8400SadykovSomewhat-Risky-140+550
Ziam has excellent size and reach for LW, which he will leverage to stay safe and fight from the outside. A true stick and move approach, enables Fares to slow the pace and work behind his jab. As such this isn't a fight to target in DFS. He can work to a two round lead and coast to a 29-28 decision win. 
Marvin Vettori8200FerreiraSomewhat-Risky-120+500
Another binary fight type for early finisher vs distance fighter. Vettori's style to walk people down behind a high guard will be tested early vs Ferreira's winging hooks and overhands. Despite the run of losses, Vettori has never been knocked out and has a path to taking over in R2 with a finish in R3 against a gassed Ferreira. 
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Brunno Ferreira8000Gauge YoungSomewhat-Risky+100+180
Ferreira is a stocky, explosive striker with a muscular frame and serious KO power. Bruno gets a willing opponent who is open to body shots and can be overwhelmed by volume and power. It will be a tall task to crack Vettori's chin, but early domination behind a kill or be killed approach could break Marvin's iron head. 
Nazim Sadykov7900VettoriSomewhat-Risky+115+250
Sadykov is stronger play in a dog or pass scenario with better ITD odds as an underdog. Nazim will need to use leg kicks, pressure and mix it up, cutting of the cage to force Ziam into exchanges. Behind some takedowns and landing a few hard shots, Sadykov by high volume and some control time is live. 
Bogdan Guskov7800BlachowiczSomewhat-Risky+110+165
The third underdog of the three fighters priced in this range with better ITD odds, features Bodgan Guskov who brings power and explosiveness. Guskov will push hard early behind wild hooks and overhands. While he is fresh, he catch Jan off a counter or some kind of unorthodox strike - opening the door for more pace or an outright brawl. 
Brandon Moreno7700TairaSomewhat-Risky+105+600
Savvy two time champ gets a rising star with the odds closer to pickem. Despite his well-rounded skills, I look for Moreno to anti-wrestle Taira with leg kicks and quick boxing combos with his hands low. An approach to stuff takedowns and win on the feet in a competitive decision wont break the slate. 
Terrance McKinney7600DuncanRisky+120+140
As explosive a fighter as we have seen, T.Wrecks can unleash dynamic strikes with serious power or quick submissions. He gets a hittable opponent and is favorably priced as an underdog. He will be optimal in his win condition and also likley to be finished in a loss. Given we are unlikely to see the cards this fight will be optimal and viable as a Showdown Captain pivot off Merab. 
Karine Silva7500BarberRisky+165+425
Silva has never won by decision and Barber brings some questions marks after her last fight cancellation. Otherwise in the cage, Karine will be aggressive early with her striking and probably score an early takedown. If she cannot cinch a choke or swarm early, she has faded and not looked like a contender in her last two fights. 
Ibo Aslan7400BaraniewskiRisky+160+215
At his best Aslan is a powerhouse behind a stocky frame, swinging with bad intentions. Unfortunately, grappling is a glaring weakness in addition to defensive holes from his wild striking. Even still, Aslan is the type of low owned underdog with early finish punching power to starch an unknown that warrants consideration. 
Manuel Torres7300DawsonRisky+190+215
El Loco Torres means this fight is a must play. He continues the boom-bust nature of UFC 323 as yet another underdog with better ITD odds. Wild, unpredictable and insanely dangerous are all on display when Manuel takes the cage. Torres might wait to catch Dawson shooting after some early leg kicks, but I wouldn't expect much patience after the first huge knee or long uppercut.
Muhammad Naimov7100SantosRisky+195+500
Naimov has crisp striking tools, but should look to leverage his wrestling as Santos brings the pressure. Naimov will also push the limits of the referee and could get a point deducted.
Henry Cejudo7000TalbottRisky+205+650
Triple C has made it clear he is retiring. His fight IQ and chin will are renown, but given the circumstances and Talbott's physicality, Cejudo is a GPP dart or sentimental play.
Edson Barboza6900TurnerRisky+250+450
Barboza's best chance is to play matador, but this is possibly his last run. We've seen Turner play into his opponent so perhaps Barboza turns the tide to stay at range and rip leg kicks.
Antonio Troccoli6400Abdul-MalikRisky+700+1800
Troccoli looks to be cannon fodder. He has size and reach to match up with Abdul-Malik, but is otherwise deficient offensively and defensively.

Sample Roster