MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 293 Adesanya vs Strickland Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC 293: Adesanya vs Strickland live from Sydney Australia kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:30PM on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM on ESPN+ and finally the main card at 10:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV. Israel Adesanya looks to make another title defense at the top of the Middleweight division against Sean Strickland in what should be a high level striking affair. The Co-main event this week features top Heavyweights Alexander Volkov against fan favorite knockout artist Tai Tuivasa in a fight that should be fun for as long as it lasts.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 292: Adesanya vs Strickland
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Israel Adesanya vs Sean Strickland | 9700/6500 | - | Stackability: Low | -650/ +470 | -110/750. |
| The middleweight title is on the line as Adesanya takes on Strickland in the main event. Izzy is the much more technical striker and should be miles ahead of Strickland while this fight stays at kicking range, but if Strickland can close the distance, he has a chance to make this fight greasy with his boxing and clinch work. I don't think we see either fighter shoot many takedowns, and Izzy when he is at his best is avoiding big shots but only landing about 25 strikes per round. This fight is far from a lock to hit the optimal lineup with Izzy being the highest priced fighter on the slate so I'll have Izzy in about 30% of my lineups, and while Strickland will hit the optimal lineup if he wins this fight, it is going to be tough for him to win so I'll likely be fading him. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Manel Kape | 9300 | Felipe dos Santos | Somewhat-Safe | -395 | -165 |
| Kape is a huge favorite looking to make a statement after his recent string of cancelled fights. Kape is more explosive than Santos and likely more technical as well. Santos has shown an inability to keep fights standing so Kape could exploit him with wrestling if he wants the quickest path to victory. Santos is only 21 years old and hasn't been in the cage in the last year so it's tough to judge any improvements he has made but I think this is too much too soon for him. | |||||
| Carlos Ulberg | 9200 | Da Woon Jung | Somewhat-Safe | -270 | -150 |
| Ulberg is the much better striker in this matchup and likely wins it by KO. Jung has shown some wrestling in one of his fights in the UFC but he doesn't rely on it much so this should stay standing where Ulberg is much quicker. I think Ulberg gets it done in R2 by KO. | |||||
| Charles Radtke | 9100 | Blood Diamond | Somewhat-Safe | -325 | -135 |
| Radtke projects to be one of the higher owned fighters on the slate as he faces Mike "Blood" Diamond. Radtke can finish fights with both strikes and submissions but in this fight, he should try to get it to the ground. Blood Diamond has looked awful in the UFC on the ground showing nearly zero ability to get up but if this fight is standing Diamond has shown he can put out some serious volume. I expect Radtke to get the fight to the ground early and often and finish it by submission. | |||||
| Nasrat Haqparast | 9500 | Landon Quinones | Moderate | -485 | 130. |
| Haqparast has been a decision machine of late but he takes on an opponent here looking to make a statement so we could see some fireworks. Haqparast is a perennial top 25 fighter in this division who has really stumbled at any opportunity to get into the top 15 but he really shines when he faces lesser competition. Quinones was submitted in the first round on this last season of "The Ultimate Fighter" but he looked to have some skills so he could be better than he showed on the show. I'm backing Haqparast to get this win but don't think he ends up on the optimal lineup. The likely shows up as the lowest owned fighter in this top range even with the best odds to win. | |||||
| Justin Tafa | 9000 | Austen Lane | Moderate | -205 | -175 |
| This fight is a rematch of a fight that took place a few months ago and ended by eye poke after 30 seconds so we didn't get to learn much. Tafa has the ceiling to break any slate with quick finishing ability in a low-level heavyweight matchup but Lane's 6 inch reach advantage may cause him some issues as it looked it was heading that way in their first fight. Tafa only needs one good shot to end the show early (anything after Round 1 his cardio falls off a cliff) and he has the highest inside the distance on the card so expect him to be one of the higher owned fighters in this range. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jack Jenkins | 8700 | Chepe Mariscal | Moderate | -210 | 200. |
| Chepe played a fan friendly style in his last matchup but I think one goes at a slower pace. Jenkins should be a more technical fighter and I think he's also the better wrestler. Chepe needs to make this a greasy fight, but going off of last fight that Chepe had where Trevor Peek was exhausted with his hands on his hips, and he couldn't find the finish I'm not rating him too high. Jenkins probably finds a decision win in this matchup. | |||||
| Jamie Mullarkey | 8900 | John Makdessi | Moderate | -265 | 215. |
| Mullarkey likes to wrestle, but his chin has shown terrible durability in his recent fights. Makdessi is older for the division and hasn't been active as of late, so I don't know what version of him shows up. I don't think Makdessi has enough to put down Mullarkey and I expect Mullarkey to shoot multiple takedowns per round and eventually winning a slow-paced decision. | |||||
| Kevin Jousset | 8400 | Kiefer Crosbie | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | 140. |
| Jousett has mostly gone to decision in his fights, but he does have a few finishes on his record. The fight is -130 to go to decision and Jousset should be able to KO Crosbie if he can control the pace and land a takedown. It's the opening fight with two low level fighters who likely go out on their shield, but this is a high variance fight, and I don't expect for either one to stay around for long. | |||||
| Kiefer Crosbie | 7800 | Kevin Jousset | Somewhat-Risky | 130 | 300. |
| Crosbie has some power and some submissions but I think what he really could be the difference here is the power that Crosbie has. He isn't very technical, and he struggled to find wins even in Bellator but this fight may not even be at that level. Jousset trains at City Kickboxing with Adesanya, Blood Dimond, Tuivasa, and Shane Young so the UFC could have been looking to help out a teammate of the main draws of the card. This fight should be greasy but I think whoever wins it scores well enough to pay off this mid-range price range. | |||||
| Gabriel Miranda | 7600 | Shane Young | Somewhat-Risky | 136 | 215. |
| I'm not taking anything away from Miranda after he was dismantled against Benoit St. Denis, but this is a major step down and competition and up a weight class. Shane Young disappoints the home town fans every time he ends up on the UFC cards in Australia. I think Miranda wins this fight, likely by submission but even if he doesn't find the submission he should be able to control the fight on the ground. | |||||
| Anton Turkalj | 8200 | Tyson Pedro | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | 175. |
| I'm on the fade Tyson Pedro train until the wheels fall off. Pedro is another local fighter but he hasn't been impressive as of late. I think Turkalj has the wrestling advantage here, and Pedro has shown zero cardio or ability to put out volume in his UFC career. Pedro averages under 3 strikes landed per minute so even if portions of this fight take place on the feet, I don't think Pedro does enough to steal the round away. I'm taking Turkalj by late finish or decision and if it's a wrestling based decision he could hit the optimal even without finding the finish. | |||||
| Chepe Mariscal | 7500 | Jack Jenkins | Risky | 175 | 500. |
| Chepe destroyed the chalk favorite in his UFC debut and while he is tough, he isn't very technical or excels in any area. He isn't going to be making many of my lineups as he looked tentative to really push for a finish even in a fight where his opponent was clearly gassed out. I think a lot of people are going to look at his last fight and cause him to gain some ownership, but I'm banking on him being outclassed here and fading him. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Austen Lane | 7200 | Justin Tafa | Somewhat-Risky | 170 | 225. |
| I want someone from this fight in most of my lineups. Tafa has one round of cardio and if Lane can extend the fight to round 2 he should be able to find the KO. Lane has gone four rounds in the past so we've seen him carry his cardio deep into fights, and while I don't think he has the power to match Tafa I think the six inch reach advantage is enough to keep this fight where Lane wants it. | |||||
| Tai Tuivasa | 7400 | Alexander Volkov | Somewhat-Risky | 200 | 275. |
| Tuivasa has a similar path to victory as Tafa. He needs this fight over early otherwise Volkov is going to start to takeover. Tuivasa is likely behind in striking ability, cardio, and wrestling but power is the great equalizer at heavy weight and Tuivasa has plenty of it. I think Volkov likely dances around Tuivasa for the first few rounds and eventually hurts him with a body shot, but at Tuivasa's price if he wins this fight, he is going to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Blood Diamond | 7100 | Charles Radtke | Risky | 260 | 500. |
| Blood Diamond is probably going to come in as one of the lower owned fighters on the card due to his inability to stop takedowns but Radtke is 33 years old and isn't some super prospect. If the fight stays standing Blood would be the favorite in the fight and while I don't love the idea of him having to keep the fight standing for 15 minutes, he has a clear path to victory. | |||||
| Da Woon Jung | 7000 | Carlos Ulberg | Risky | 220 | 380. |
| I don't love anyone in the 7k and under range but Jung at least has an advantage if he takes the fight to the ground. He's going to be outclassed on the feet, and he rarely actually commits to a takedown so don't bank to heavily on him. If this goes to the judges scorecard he probably loses it since the fight is in Ulberg's backyard. | |||||
| Felipe dos Santos | 6900 | Manel Kape | Risky | 310 | 650. |
| Santos is probably coming out going for broke as the young 21 year old prospect but I don't think this fight ends well for him. I'm fading him in my lineups and if he wins via fluke submission so be it. | |||||
| Landon Quinones | 6700 | Nasrat Haqparast | Risky | 370 | 750. |
| Quinones takes on his toughest test in a fight that doesn't make much sense on paper. It's possible the UFC saw a lot out of Quinones behind the scenes on TUF but I don't think he belongs in a matchup this high up the ladder in his debut. I'm more likely to play him over Santos if I need to fill out a few lineups but I'm likely fading both. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Miranda, Tuivasa, Lane, Crosbie,
Picks and Stats
Israel Adesanya | vs | Sean Strickland |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
| Record: 24-2-0 | Record | Record: 27-5-0 |
16 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 4 |
-650 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Tai Tuivasa | vs | Alexander Volkov |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 36-10-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 24 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
200 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Manel Kape | vs | Felipe dos Santos |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 (1 NC) |
11 | Knockouts | 2 |
5 | Subs | 3 |
-395 | Vegas Odds | 310 |
Justin Tafa | vs | Austen Lane |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 6-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-3-0 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | 170 |
Tyson Pedro | vs | Anton Turkalj |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 9-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
0 | ||
Carlos Ulberg | vs | Da Woon Jung |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-1 |
6 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-270 | Vegas Odds | 220 |
Jack Jenkins | vs | Chepe Mariscal |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 24 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | 175 |
Jamie Mullarkey | vs | John Makdessi |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 18-8-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 9 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-265 | Vegas Odds | 215 |
Nasrat Haqparast | vs | Landon Quinones |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-1 |
9 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-485 | Vegas Odds | 370 |
Blood Diamond | vs | Charles Radtke |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 3-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
260 | Vegas Odds | -325 |
Shane Young | vs | Gabriel Miranda |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 13-7-0 | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 15 |
-162 | Vegas Odds | 136 |
Kevin Jousset | vs | Kiefer Crosbie |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | 130 |
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