Wimbledon 2025: Key Matches & Betting Picks For 4th Of July Weekend

The fourth round of Wimbledon 2025 kicks off Sunday, with the most competitive slate of matches we've seen so far. The early rounds filtered out the unsteady, and now we're left with players who’ve settled into form and look ready to make a real run.
Pre-tournament picks Taylor Fritz and Mirra Andreeva are still alive to win their quarters, while Carlos Alcaraz remains in the title mix despite a bumpy path. Elena Rybakina wasn’t so fortunate. The 2022 champion was bounced in the third round by Clara Tauson, who outmaneuvered her on return and outlasted her in baseline exchanges. That opened up the bottom half of the women’s draw, where a handful of first-time semifinalists are now very much in play.
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Wimbledon Picks: 4th Round Free Picks & Best Bet From DraftKings Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev +2.5 sets (-115)
Alcaraz has dropped three sets through his first three matches, two in a shaky five-set win over Fabio Fognini and one to Jan-Lennard Struff in the third round. While his shotmaking brilliance still shows up in bursts, the overall level hasn’t matched his title-winning form from last year. His forehand has been streaky, and the serve has been breakable at times.
Rublev has the firepower to apply pressure. His serve and flat backhand both play well on grass when he's in rhythm, and he’s kept things tidy through the early rounds. He looked locked in against Mannarino, barely giving up any free points and maintaining patience. If he plays a clean match and holds serve, he has a real shot at pushing Alcaraz deep or grabbing a set outright. Alcaraz’s margin for error on grass looks thinner right now, and Rublev is good enough to make him feel that.
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Iga Swiatek vs Clara Tauson — Over 22.5 total games (-110)
Tauson took out Rybakina in straight sets in round three, winning more total points and dominating on return despite going just 1-for-10 on break points, and has the kind of weight of shot that can trouble Swiatek on grass. While Swiatek has looked more comfortable than in years past, she’s still adjusting to the limitations of grass. The footwork demands are different, the sliding isn’t as effective, and her topspin-heavy forehand doesn’t get the same bite it does on clay.
She’s made subtle adjustments though. Against Collins, she backed off the baseline just enough to change angles, chose targets with more purpose, and leaned into her feel and variety when extended. Tauson is hitting big and serving well, but she hasn’t faced a returner like Swiatek yet. The pace Tauson brings could help her steal a set or stretch one deep, and Swiatek’s new grass approach tends to produce longer rallies. If this stays tight for a set and a half, we should be live on the total.
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Mirra Andreeva -2.5 games (-110) vs Emma Navarro
Andreeva is holding up her end of the quarter pick. She hasn’t dropped a set through three rounds and just dismantled Hailey Baptiste. This will be her toughest test so far. Navarro has shown composure, clean ball striking, and smart decision-making, but she hasn’t faced anyone with Andreeva’s ability to redirect pace and break open rallies.
The Russian’s backhand is the best shot on the court, and she uses it to control patterns and open space. Navarro’s serve may not hold up once Andreeva locks in. The left-to-right backhand crosscourt will be key in breaking down Navarro’s forehand. If Mirra can get into return games early, this could tilt quickly. If you’re not holding a futures ticket on Mirra, this is still a clean entry point on her.
If you’re only making one play, Andreeva is the spot. She’s fresh, confident, and hasn’t dropped a set. Navarro has looked strong, but Mirra brings more weight of shot and more control in longer rallies. Expect her to dictate from the backhand wing and take this in straights or a clear two-set win.
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How To Watch 2025 Wimbledon
Wimbledon 4th round action begins Sunday, July 6 and continues through Monday. Matches will stream live on ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN+. The tournament runs through July 13, with fourth round play taking place across July 6–7. All lines quoted are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday afternoon. Odds are subject to change as match times and weather updates are confirmed. How To Bet On Wimbledon at DraftKings & Get $150+ in Bonuses:
- Sign up at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Deposit $10+
- Bet $5 on any Wimbledon market
- Get $150+ in bonus bets, win or lose
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