For the second offseason in a row, the WNBA saw a lot of very good players change teams, including several All-Stars and a two-time MVP. With the WNBA season set to begin May 14, now is a good time to catch up with all 12 WNBA teams with an eye towards betting and fantasy.
2020 Results
7-15 Record, 11th in the league, the second consecutive season in the lottery.
Offseason Moves
Signed free agent Odyssey Sims.
Signed free agent Cheyenne Parker.
Signed free agent Tianna Hawkins.
Signed free agent Shatori Walker-Kimbrough
Free agent Betnijah Laney signed with New York Liberty.
Draft Results
Atlanta should have the most dynamic guard rotation in the league after adding Aari McDonald with the third pick in the first round. McDonald was likely a borderline first-round pick in last year’s draft, but after returning to Arizona and lighting up the NCAA tournament, McDonald’s draft stock rose significantly. McDonald’s size could be an issue at the next level, but after watching the diminutive Crystal Dangerfield win Rookie of the Year in 2020, I don’t think anyone would be surprised if McDonald wins it this season.
Offseason Breakdown
Atlanta has been struggling to replace Angel McCoughtry ever since she sat out the 2017 season for rest, and power forward remains the team’s most glaring weakness following their offseason moves. That being said, improved its bench depth at every position. Odyssey Sims, Cheyenne Parker, Aari McDonald, Tianna Hawkins and even Shatori Walker-Kimbrough can provide scoring and energy off the bench and should be able to hold their own in the starting lineup if needed. Atlanta’s bench had the worst offensive rating in the league last season, and that will almost certainly not be the case following their offseason additions.
Projected Starting 5:
PG Chennedy Carter
SG Courtney Williams
SF Tiffany Hayes
PF Monique Billings
C Elizabeth Williams
This is Atlanta’s starting lineup from 2020 with Tiffany Hayes replacing Betnijah Laney. With Laney, that unit had a -12.5 net rating in 89 minutes together. That would indicate a shakeup is in order, but Monique Billings is the only player who could realistically lose her starting spot to start the season.
Elizabeth Williams has started 154 out of 155 games she has played over her five seasons in Atlanta, while Tiffany Hayes has started 183 of 188 games for Atlanta since 2014. Chennedy Carter started every game she played for Atlanta as a rookie, while Courtney Williams is Atlanta’s best scorer and highest-paid player, so her starting spot appears to be secure.
Atlanta’s four most-used lineups last season all featured Monique Billings next to Elizabeth Williams, and while I think Dream head coach Nicki Collen has better starting alternatives to Billings, I’m not sure she will go to them initially.
Cheyenne Parker proved in her time in Chicago that she is best in a sixth man role providing scoring punch off the bench, while Tianna Hawkins has started just 11 of the 204 games she has played in her career.
I would like to see Shekinna Stricklen start at the four, where her 37.2 percent career three-point shooting would provide needed spacing for Courtney Williams and Chennedy Carter. That being said, Monique Billings was 12th in rebounding rate last season, and that is probably enough to keep her in the starting lineup, at least to start the season.
2021 Outlook
Even with the additions of Courtney Williams and Chennedy Carter and Betnijah Laney’s breakout season, Atlanta still had the second-worst offensive rating in the league in 2020. Adding Odyssey Sims, Tiffany Hayes, Aari McDonald, Tianna Hawkins and Cheyenne Parker should get the offense to league-average, but it is difficult to imagine them finishing much higher than that. Perhaps more importantly, it is unclear how much those players will add on the defensive end. Tiffany Hayes is a very good defender, but so is the player she replaced, Betnijah Laney. Aari McDonald was great defensively in college, but defending in the pros could be a challenge at her size.
Atlanta is at least two-deep at every position, which is a huge improvement over 2019, but I don’t know if that is enough for them to secure a playoff spot or to be any sort of threat if they actually make the playoffs. At the end of the day, the ceiling is quite low for a team with a league-average offense and a bottom-three defense. Barring some in-season moves or a Coach-of-the-Year performance from Nicki Collen, it is hard to see how Atlanta gets much better than that this season.
Betting Outlook
Atlanta is 60/1 on DraftKings to win the WNBA championship, which seems about right. Their team should be better than in 2019, but outside of their matchups with Indiana, I don’t think they’ll have the best player on the floor in any game this season. Atlanta’s backcourt is deep and I could see their bench unit thriving against other team’s backups, but that isn’t enough to make up for the lack of talent in the frontcourt. Even at 100/1 on FanDuel, I’m not interested in Atlanta.
Fantasy Outlook
Having a deep bench and a lot of players who can handle the ball is great for a real-life team, but it is not ideal for fantasy. Barring injuries, I think Atlanta will have some solid fantasy contributors but nobody who produces consistently at a high level.
Courtney Williams has averaged between 16.0 and 17.2 points per 36 minutes in all five WNBA seasons, and I don’t see any reason to believe that would change this season. The one thing that is likely to change is playing time. Williams averaged a career-high 30.5 mpg last season, and with the additions of Sims, McDonald, Hayes and Walker-Kimbrough, I think she will probably lose a few minutes per game.
The other player who has been pretty much a constant is Tiffany Hayes, who has averaged at least 28.2 mpg and 22.4 fppg in each of her last six seasons. Hayes was Atlanta’s only real offensive threat in 2019, and she had her lowest field goal percentage, fewest ppg and fewest fppg as a result. I expect Hayes to get closer to the 28.1 fppg she averaged in 2018 playing alongside Angel McCoughtry.
Chennedy Carter was good enough as a rookie that she should at least match her 25.4 mpg in her second year. She may not average 20 field goal attempts per 36 minutes again, but her efficiency and assist numbers could improve with more talent around her. That being said, her ceiling is likely limited while Odyssey Sims and Aari McDonald are around.
One reason for optimism from a fantasy perspective is that I expect Atlanta to play faster than they did in the wubble. Atlanta had a 101.06 pace with Chennedy Carter on the floor last season, which would have led the league by a wide margin. With Carter off the court, Atlanta had a 97.17 pace, which would have been good for sixth. With Aari McDonald and Odyssey Sims playing the point when Carter sits, I think Atlanta has a good chance to lead the league in pace this season.
The other reason to like Atlanta for fantasy is that when they do suffer injuries during the season, the replacement starters should have a ton of value for DFS. Cheyenne Parker averaged 28.2 fppg as a starter last season. Tianna Hawkins averaged 22.2 fantasy points in her five starts, nearly eight more than when she came off the bench. Odyssey Sims averaged six more fantasy points as a starter last season, while Shatori Walker-Kimbrough nearly doubled her fantasy production when she started. Atlanta may not be great, but they should be fun to watch and good for fantasy.