PGA Championship 2025 DFS Picks: Predictions, Values & Projections

Published: May 12, 2025
The 2nd Major has arrived! The PGA Championship takes place this week at the historic Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, the 2nd such time the course has received that honor. As the 2nd major of the season, this field is strong, diverse, and should give us plenty of fun options for line ups this week. Who’s going to make the cut?Â
Let’s waste no time and dive in!
PGA Championship 2025: Daily Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections
The PGA Championship is upon us. While this used to be the final major of the season, as of 2019 we are now graced with this event on the weekend prior to Memorial Day. Originally played as a match-play event from it's inception in 1916 until 1957, this is the 2nd youngest major tournament, older than only the Masters. Much like other the other majors that aren't the Masters, this is a rotational event, having been played at quite a few different venues. As of the 2019 PGA Championship, only 17 venues had hosted the event multiple times, though it is very frequently held on the east coast. With the Wanamaker trophy up for grabs, let's take a look at this years venue, Quail Hollow.Â
Quail Hollow Club: Course Breakdown This Week
Quail Hollow is nothing new for PGA fans, as it has hosted the Truist/Wells Fargo Championship since 2003, previously hosted this event in 2017, and the Presidents Cup in 2022. While Quail Hollow is a very long course, coming in at over 7,600 yards as a Par 71, it’s not simply a course where bombers win. This is especially true when it’s in PGA Championship condition, as we saw 4 players tied for 2nd place in 2017 while losing strokes to the field on driving distance. While longer hitters have been more successful in the Wells Fargo/Truist in recent years, this course will be a complete test, given the winning score has only twice been 12 under or better at the Wells Fargo where the layout is much easier.
With the Par 71 format, we see the standard array of 4 par 3s, 11 par 4s, and 3 par 5s. All Par 3s are on the long side, with the shortest coming in at 184 yards and the longest being 249 yards. Par 4s at Quail Hollow fall between 344 yards and 530 yards with the Par 5s all playing 550 yards or more. These holes are accompanied by narrow fairways, which average under 30 yards wide, and above-average sized Bermuda greens. Additionally, given the time this event falls on, the fairways, roughs, and greens will all be overseeded with either Poa Annua or Ryegrass, making this just the 2nd PGA Championship played on overseeded grass in the 21st century.
As always with Quail Hollow, weather can play a factor as well. At time of writing, we’re expecting constant rain Monday through Wednesday, hurting both prep for the course, and potentially making it play different than the heat would imply. Luckily, the other aspects that could impact the course look to be pretty tame. Additionally, Quail Hollow is equipped with SubAir systems, which should help dry the course out rather quickly.
Looking at the stats for the week, a few become apparently clear. Since 2014, only one winner at Quail Hollow has not ranked inside the top 15 in driving distance. As previously stated, driving distance clearly gives players an edge at this course, so it receives extra weighting this week. Additionally, on average nearly 60% of approach shots come from 175 yards or farther out. Additionally, we will be looking at Bermuda Putting, and previous major performance as factors this week.Â
Some of our leaders in various key stats are:
Driving Distance:Â Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Niklas Norgaard, Rasmus Hojgaard, Kurt Kitayama, Garrick Higgo, Xander Schauffele, Min Woo Lee, Wyndham Clark, Dean Burmester, Ludvig Aberg, Keith Mitchell, Kevin Yu, Adam Scott, and Taylor Pendrith
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175+ Yard Approach:Â Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, Dean Burmester, Kurt Kitayama, Jon Rahm, Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, and Rory McIlroy
BoB Gained:Â Justin Thomas, Sepp Straka, Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Niklas Norgaard, Cam Davis, Russell Henley, and Sungjae Im
PGA Championship 2025 Field: Golf DFS
Given this being a major tournament, it should come as no surprise that this event is loaded with big names. Billy Horschel is the lone player in the top 25 who is not in the field, and he is also in fact the only player in the entire top 100 OWGR that is not in the field. Rory McIlroy is the clear favorite, as he has picked up 6 wins either at Quail Hollow or at a PGA Championship. Other Quail Hollow winners in the field include Wyndham Clark, Max Homa, Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Brian Harman, Lucas Glover, and Rickie Fowler
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GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: Top Tier
Rory McIlroy ($12,200 DraftKings/$12,700 FanDuel)
While Scottie is the favorite this week in terms of betting odds and DFS pricing, Rory should be in that spot instead. Rory has been one of the most successful Quail Hollow players of all time, with 4 wins at this venue and nearly 3 True Strokes Gained in his appearances here (only 3 other players have cracked 2). His great play has continued, with two top 12s since his win at Augusta. He is a leader in many of our key stats, and gives us essentially the ideal mold of a player for this course
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,000 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel)
Bryson has to be on the cards this week as well given his statistical profile and recent success. At Quail Hollow, he’s played here 3 times in his career, missing the cut in his debut then following that up with a 4th place finish and a T9th finish. He’s also finished T4th and 2nd at his last two PGA Championship appearances. Over his last 5 professional starts he’s won once and finished T2nd, T5th, solo 5th, and T10th, including that T5th finish which came at Augusta. His game is in great form as well, as he just had his best event on approach since March of 2024, indicating that his iron play is back in form after is being his weakest point for most of the last calendar year. Every part of his game appears to be heating up at just the right time
Xander Schauffele ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel)
While I tend to be more bearish than bullish when it comes to Xander, he has given us a lot of reasons to be in on him this week. His return to play after his rib injury has shown two different Xanders. The first Xander we saw took a while to return to form, with finishes of T40th and 72nd in his first two starts. He has bounced back heavily the last 4 events though, with no finish worse than T18th during that span. While he is the defending PGA Championship winner, his play at Quail Hollow is what I’m factoring in more this week. In his last 3 starts at this course, he’s finished in solo 2nd twice, and T14th in his other appearance. As long as he can keep his driver in play on these tighter fairways, like he has in his last two appearances here, he should be a great play in a loaded field.
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GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: MID-TIER
Justin Thomas ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel)
Outside of Rory, Thomas was one of the first names that came to mind when building my model as a player I expected to be near the top. When he ended up in the top 10, that was no surprise. His game has been great of late, with a win at RBC and a T2nd at the Truist this past weekend. He won the last PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, and outside of a single missed cut here in 2016, he has finished no worse than T26th in his other 6 appearances. His skill set fits this course very well, which is no surprise as he’s one of the best iron players on tour. He should easily justify his current price, especially since it feels like there is a discount built in.Â
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,000 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel)
While Hatton doesn’t fit the mold of most winners, he does have a lot of reasons to be excited. While not the longest hitter, he has enough distance to compete. He’s just solid enough in all other aspects of his game, and finished T3rd in his last start at Quail Hollow. He almost always fins a way to make cuts at Majors, having missed just one Major cut since the 2020 season. His recent form on LIV and at the Masters has been strong as well, giving us even more reason to be excited.
Russell Henley ($8,900 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel)
Henley, much like Hatton, does not have the entire skillset that we’re looking for at this event, but at his current price, it’s going to be hard to ignore him. While he lacks driving distance, his accuracy off the tee is strong enough that I believe it makes up for much of this, plus his approach game and putter have been strong enough to correct any other mistakes he may make. He finished T10th here last season and while he missed the cut at Augusta, he finished T7th or better in his two prior major starts, and finished T23rd at last years PGA Championship. His recent form has been a bit up and down, but I’m willing to take that risk given his overall upside.
Jason Day ($8,800 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel)
One of my favorite stories of the PGA tour over the last year is the fact that we can be excited about Jason Day again, especially in major tournaments. In his last two major appearances, Day has finished T8th and T13th. He clearly has found the confidence he lost for a stretch. Additionally, he has had success at Quail Hollow, with a win, T4th, and two T9th finishes here. Different parts of his game have been his saving grace in his recent events, but if he can put everything together like he did last year at Quail Hollow where he gained strokes with all clubs and finished T4th, he’s going to be a force in the field this week.
GOLF DFS PICKS THIS WEEK: VALUE TIER
Denny McCarthy ($6,700 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel)
Denny McCarthy has found his form at Quail Hollow after struggling to start his career there. After 3 straight missed cuts, he’s gone T8th and T6th in his last two starts here, having clearly figured out how to play here. His recent major performance has left some to be desired, but he has made cuts in 3 of his last 5 major appearances. He’s a long shot to be elite, but he should be solid enough all around to make waves this week.
Max Homa ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel)
I’m a bit shocked to see Homa’s name here, and you might be as well, but please hear me out. He’s made 3 straight cuts, including a T12th at Augusta after a streak of 5 missed cuts. He’s finished T8th at this course in his last two starts, one of which came during the beginning of his streak of struggles. He’s found his distance again with the driver, and the other clubs have all found hot streaks at times. If he can put it together this week, he’s a high-risk-high-reward play.
Andrew Novak ($6,600 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel)
Novak is a play where I’m trying to grab onto a hot streak. In his last four starts he’s finished as the winner in New Orleans, 2nd at the RBC, T3rd at Valero, and T17th at Truist. This will be his first start at Quail Hollow, and just his 2nd start ever at a major, but I’m willing to take that risk. All parts of his game have been working, his play around the green has been elite of late, and he’s been long with the driver. I’m going to keep taking risks with him, especially at this price..
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