Welcome back to the NHL Playbook! You’ll find our daily NHL Best Bets and which players you should target in DFS. We’ve conveniently put it all in one article to simplify life. If you have more questions, make sure to hit up the Fantasy Alarm NHL Discord. Let’s dive into the action and build a winning lineup!

NHL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/12

There may only be two games today, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some good value. We have one Total and one Player Prop PARLAY for tonight’s action. Let’s dive right into the action and add some dollar bills (or loonies) to your wallet!

 

 

 

Capitals vs Hurricanes Prediction: Monday, May 12th

The Carolina Hurricanes come into Game 4 looking to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Washington Capitals played well last game, but they couldn’t find the back of the net. They had chances, but in this league, we only count the ones that end up in the net. 

That being said, head coach Rob Brind’Amour has decided to shuffle his lines a little. He is reuniting Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Seth Jarvis. They played together a bit last game and were unstoppable. Their shot attempts for/against were 9-1 with a 90% Corsi. Most books expect them to do some damage in this game, and I tend to agree. Taking just one player to find the scoresheet isn’t good value, so we’ll put together a two-player SGP for some plus-money. The two players I like the best are Aho and Svechnikov. If they can bring the momentum from last game into this one, I expect them to rack up a point each before the night ends

 

 

 

Golden Knights vs Oilers: Monday, May 12th

The Vegas Golden Knights caught a lucky break in Game 3 thanks to Leon Draisaitl. With 0.6 left, Riley Smith put a shot off Draisaitl’s stick that found the back of the net. In hockey, sometimes you need a bounce to go your way, and that’s what happened. 

Stuart Skinner didn’t play poorly on Saturday, but once again, he wasn’t a difference-maker. He needs to be better to give his team a chance to win, but Edmonton as a team needs to be better defensively. They give up so many quality chances. Can they lock things down? I’d like to think so. I know we’ve seen a ton of goals so far between the two teams, but the Total is starting to push 7.0, and I don’t care how bad each goalie has been, we won’t see a barn burner every game. We’ll go with the Under tonight and hope things tighten up defensively. 

  • Under 6.5 (+114 on DraftKings)

 

 


NHL DFS Slate & Game Overviews

Washington Capitals vs Carolina Hurricanes NHL DFS Breakdown:

  • WSH Goals for: 12th CAR Goals for: 6th
  • WSH  Goals against: 2nd CAR Goals against: 1st
  • WSH  Power play: 12th CAR Power play: 3rd
  • WSH  Penalty Kill: 13th CAR Penalty Kill: 1st

We have yet to see these teams combine to score more than 4 goals in a single game, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value. There are players on each side that can help us take down a GPP; we just have to find them.

For Washington, their offence has dried up. They aren’t generating enough scoring chances, and their power play isn’t connecting. We’ll keep our exposure to them very limited. Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael are good bargain plays and give you exposure to the top-6. On defence, we need to find players who can block shots. You can spend up for Jakob Chychrun or John Carlson, but not both. I'd rather pair one of the two with someone like Rasmus Sandin or Matt Roy.

Logan Thompson hasn’t been bad this round, he’s just not getting any support. Game 3 wasn’t his best effort, but prior to that, he had allowed just three goals. He’s cheap and can still provide value without getting the win.

For Carolina, their new top line is where I want to focus my attention. Aho, Jarvis, and Svechnikov are dominant when they play together, so any combination of those three works for me. If you need some value, Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven are good second-tier players to look at.

On the back end, Shayne Gostisbehere has been generating scoring chances. He had just one shot on goal last game, but finished with nine shot attempts. If half of those hit the net, he’s going to flirt with the shot bonus. Not bad for a defenceman who is also quarterbacking the top power play unit.

Frederik Andersen is the most expensive goalie on the slate, and it’s not a surprise. He secured a shutout in Game 3 on just 21 shots. As mentioned earlier, the Capitals are really struggling to generate chances, so that does limit Andersen’s upside. He needs the win to hit value, so if you trust Carolina, go with him.

Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers NHL DFS Breakdown:

  • VGK Goals for: 9th EDM Goals for: 1st
  • VGK Goals against: 10th EDM Goals against: 13th
  • VGK Power play: 6th EDM Power play: 4th
  • VGK Penalty Kill: 4th EDM Penalty Kill: 15th

I know I said earlier that I’m not expecting this game to be a barn burner, but we also won’t see a 2-0 finish. Goals will be scored, just maybe not as many as in previous games. There is value on both sides, so let’s find some.

For Vegas, I want a combination of the top power-play unit. The Oilers can score goals, but their penalty kill stinks. Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl, and Shea Theodore are three players that I would stack together. If you want just a single bullet, Pavel Dorofeyev is the best option.

When it comes to defencemen, we need players who have a high floor. Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud are two players who can block shots and are seeing a decent amount of ice time. Both players are very affordable, so all we need is for them to hit the blocked shots bonus, and we’re good.

For the Oilers, we don’t have to get cute with who we are rostering. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will always be good options, it just comes down to whether we can fit them into our lineup. If you can only pick one, Draisaitl is the better value. Whoever you choose, make sure you pair them with Corey Perry. The veteran has four points this series and is skating on the top line. He may be old, but he’s finding a way to contribute offensively. 

Evan Bouchard has the most skill of any defenceman on the slate, it’s just a question of swallowing his $6500 price tag. I don’t blame you if you want to roster him, but if we’re looking for value, Jake Walman is the way to go. He’s playing close to 20 minutes a night and has nine blocked shots in three games. His $4300 price tag is also very appealing.

I know picking a goalie from this game is a risk, but that’s how you take down some serious money. Adin Hill is cheap, but he hasn’t been anything spectacular. Stuart Skinner has been a mess, and I don’t love that he’s $7800 tonight, but do I think the Oilers win this game tonight? Yes. If he can keep the goals to like 3 and pick up a win, he should be able to hit value. 

 

 

 

NHL DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

High

Mid

Value

 

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