Hello and welcome everyone, to the Stanley Cup Finals on this Thursday, June 12th, 2025, betting edition! Wagering the Cup games is always bittersweet as it’s the pinnacle of the sport, but it means the season is coming to an end, and what a great year it was for me betting on hockey. 

Game 3 was a punch in the mouth literally as the Edmonton Oilers' whole roster lost their cool, and it led to a lopsided result in which the Florida Panthers won 6-1. I expect cooler heads to prevail for Edmonton tonight as they know going down 3-1 to Florida is a tough hill to climb. Expect another tight checking game, and perhaps the goaltenders will be the stars of the game? Check out our NHL Best Bets Today and let’s get a winner. 

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NHL Stanley Cup Finals Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/12

Oilers vs. Panthers Predictions, Game 4

I swung at the under in Game 3 and just barely missed as the Panthers scored their 6th goal in the game for a meaningless stat padding, but I still firmly believe the process was correct. The Panthers are scoring way more often than they should be in this series, consistently generating fewer chances than actual scoring output, and eventually that is going to catch up to them. 

I am talking about expected goals and Corsi metrics, of course, and the fact that over the past 3 games at even strength, they’ve been marked for just 7.35 goals expected. Yet, their actual total is 13, so they are way outproducing right now. Much of this can be attributed to the many power plays Florida has received over Edmonton, and believe me, it hasn’t been close to being called evenly by the numbers. Still, I think if the Oilers can maintain even-strength situations, the Panthers' goals will go down. 

On the Florida side of things, they continue to smother the Oilers on defense. That’s no surprise with players like Aleksandar Barkov anchoring the top line and then their top-tier group of blue liners behind him. Sergei Bobrovsky also continues to plug away and now has saved 10.8 goals saved above expected over his last 10 games, which is the most of any goalie this postseason for a 10-game stretch. 

This series just can’t continue its goal pace from a statistical perspective, so I will again take the under and trust that my process prevails in Game 4, where it just fell short in Game 3.

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